The unthinkable is now the inevitable: In the next five years, a No. 1 seed will lose to a No. 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
This weekend’s Big Dance action proved a seed is nothing but a number once the games begin.
No. 14 seed Harvard stunned No. 3 seed New Mexico 68-62 on Thursday, and No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast took down No. 2 seed Georgetown 78-68 on Friday. In all, eight of the 32 teams to advance on Thursday or Friday were double-digit seeds.
It’s the third time in the last two tournaments a No. 15 seed has beaten a No. 2 seed. The last time a No. 15 beat a No. 2 before last year? 2001.
And it isn’t like Florida Gulf Coast made a buzzer-beater to take down the Hoyas. The Eagles controlled the game for most of the second half and won by double digits.
Two No. 16 seeds, Western Kentucky and Southern, also gave their No. 1 seed opponents a significant scare.
The Jags kept Gonzaga’s deficit to single digits for a majority of the second half and tied the game with 4:08 left to play before losing 64-58. Western Kentucky led Kansas at the half before the Jayhawks rallied in the second half for a 64-57 win.
Teams who want to compete to win national championships have to recruit the top players. To get those high-profile recruits, coaches have to sell them on immediate playing time and a chance to compete for a national championship.
The one-and-done rule has leveled the playing field significantly. It’s no coincidence that in the past decade, two teams have won a national title and not made the NCAA Tournament field the next season.
Kentucky started three freshmen and two sophomores on its national championship team a season ago.
Where are they now? All five were taken in the 2012 NBA draft.
The trend isn’t going to stop any time soon. Kentucky already has six of the top 18 recruits in the 2013 recruiting class, according to ESPN.com.
You can’t blame Kentucky coach John Calipari for working the system. He gets big-time players to come to Lexington for two things: to win a national championship and to get groomed for the NBA.
That’s all fine and dandy for the big college programs that can sell playing on the big stage night-in and night-out like Kentucky, Kansas and Duke. But the little guys are starting to use the one-and-done rule to their advantage as well.
When lesser-known recruits are passed on by power conference programs, smaller schools like Harvard and Florida Gulf Coast are able to pick them up. Even if players commit to a bigger school, when they don’t receive the playing time promised, they bolt for somewhere else to shine.
When No. 15 Lehigh stunned No. 2 Duke 75-70 during last year’s madness, Mountain Hawks guard C.J. McCollum dropped 30 on the Blue Devils.
“They had the best player on the court tonight,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said after the loss. “He’s really one of the outstanding players in the country. You can see why tonight.”
Coaches at prominent basketball programs will be saying that more often as lower-profile schools keep racking up talented players who are committed to competing for four years, not just one.
I’m usually in huge opposition to the one-and-done rule, but it makes the tournament more exciting.
No one tunes in the first two days of the tourney to see the top seeds trample over the lower ones. Upsets drive ratings.
More Davids taking down Goliaths are exactly what you can come to expect with future tournaments. If the one-and-done rule remains in place, lesser-known schools will continue to make these kinds of memorable upsets in the Big Dance.
It might not happen next year, but within the next five, No. 16 will take down No. 1.
Micah Bedard is a 22-year-old history senior from Houma.