College kicked off the football season last weekend, and tonight the Broncos and Ravens will get the NFL season underway.
Even though a scheduling conflict is preventing them from opening at home and raising the banner, the Ravens are nonetheless the defending Super Bowl champions.
However, the only thing harder than winning one Vince Lombardi Trophy is winning two in a row. The Ravens went on an incredible run last winter, but I don’t see it happening again.
Ironically, the biggest reason they won last season also happens to be the biggest reason they won’t win the trophy again — quarterback Joe Flacco.
Flacco’s 2013 postseason was unbelievably well-timed and arguably the best stretch of quarterback play in the league’s history. Eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions during the four games delivered Baltimore a championship and Flacco a brand-new $120.6 million contract.
The Ravens had to reward him for his play. He went on an all-time hot streak and delivered a championship in his walk year. For general manager Ozzie Newsome it was either make Flacco the highest-paid QB in league history, or be the guy who let the Super Bowl MVP walk.
The problem for Baltimore is the contract is based far more on one magical playoff run than an overall body of work.
In his five seasons as the Ravens’ starter, Flacco has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a single season. In that time, he’s tallied 102 touchdowns which ranks him No. 12 in the league since 2008. That’s not bad, but it’s not what you’d expect from a guy who just got paid more than $120 million.
The 11 quarterbacks ahead of Flacco include Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who each missed a full season with injuries. The leader since 2008, Drew Brees, has 82 more touchdowns than Flacco during that time. Again he’s not bad, but he’s also not worth the largest average annual salary in league history.
That type of money should be reserved for quarterbacks who can put a team on their back and carry it to victory despite obvious deficiencies. Actually, it needs to be because if you spend more than $20 million of the salary cap on one player, then you will have holes across the rest of your roster.
The Ravens discovered this over the summer. Ed Reed, Bernard Pollard, Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe highlighted a group of Ravens defenders who were allowed to walk in favor of cheaper options in order to afford Flacco’s massive deal.
Add in that Ray Lewis, the undeniable heart and soul of the Ravens’ defense, has traded in covering the field for covering the game for ESPN, you would have to assume the Ravens’ defense would take at least a small step backward.
However, the Ravens’ losses weren’t limited to the defense. Leading receiver Anquan Boldin, who caught a team-high four touchdowns during the postseason run, was traded to San Francisco. Boldin’s departure coupled with tight end Dennis Pitta’s hip injury means Flacco will begin 2013 without two of his top-three receivers from last season.
In order for Baltimore to have a shot at repeating, Flacco must fill the leadership void left by Lewis and Reed, and help compensate for a lower-budget defense. That’s just asking too much without the same offensive weapons he enjoyed last season.
I’m not saying the Ravens will fall off a cliff. Ray Rice and Torrey Smith are great options, Newsome will do a decent job replacing the defensive talent and John Harbaugh is too good a coach to let that happen.
But in order to make another serious run at a title, the Ravens need Flacco to be an elite player for an entire season, and there’s nothing in his track record to suggest that’s going to happen.
Maybe the Ravens still have enough talent to sneak into the playoffs in the tissue-paper soft AFC, but the closest I think Flacco will get to MetLife Stadium this February is the alumni weekend at the University of Delaware.
Opinion: Don’t expect a Ravens repeat
By James Moran
September 4, 2013