This isn’t dad’s basketball game anymore.
The sport is undergoing a sabermetric revolution, and NBA teams across the league are rushing to catch up to data-conscious teams applying new statistics to improve their game.
While NBA teams have the budget to hire analytic departments, many college teams haven’t been able to apply the same amount of money to tracking new-wave statistics.
Shooting data specifically is leading teams to re-think the way they build their rosters and the way those rosters operate on offense and defense.
Gone are the days when inefficient chuckers were praised for taking 27 shots to score 22 points, replaced by streamlined scorers who pick and choose where to shoot based on their “hot” zones around the court.
When asking LSU players about their favorite shot locations on the court — their own “hot” zones — a different answer emerges depending on the player.
Both senior guard Andre Stringer and junior guard Anthony Hickey said they prefer 3-pointers, but differed on the location.
“My favorite spot is the top of the arc. I feel like I won’t miss from there,” Hickey said in the fall. “It’s angled to the right hand once you shoot, you’re shooting directly at the rim. It’s kind of scientific, you know.”
Stringer said his preferred shot comes from either the left elbow — above the break — or in the right corner, a shot widely considered the most efficient shot in basketball.
The numbers from this season back both Hickey’s and Stringer’s claims.
During the 2013-14 season, 63 percent of Stringer’s shots came from behind the 3-point line, while 66.2 percent of Hickey’s shots were from deep. Stringer proved to be the more accurate of the two, making 40.3 percent from 3-point land on the season, as opposed to Hickey, who shot 34.4 percent on the season. The Division 1 average was 34.3 percent.
The problem came when the two diminutive guards attempted to attack the bucket. Stringer was able to convert 62.2 percent of his shots, but only took 15.4 percent of his total attempts at the rim. Hickey’s numbers were more damning, as the Hopkinsville, Ky., native only managed to convert 29.4 percent of his attempts at the rim, good for 31.5 percent below the national average.
The problem was compounded by spacing issues the Tigers suffered from when they fielded their “big” lineup. Freshman forwards Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey were paired with junior Johnny O’Bryant III in lineups that helped the Tigers’ defense at the rim but hurt the offense just as much.
While the trio held opposing shooters to 56.8 percent at the rim — blocking an impressive 15.6 percent of those attempts — O’Bryant hit more than 40 percent of his 2-point jumpers, only barely clearing the mark with 40.1 percent on his 2-point jumpers.
The spacing issue potentially stemmed from Martin being played out of position at small forward. Throughout high school, Martin was a low-post force, but because of O’Bryant’s similar skill set and Mickey’s athletic shot blocking, he was pushed to the wing where he was clearly uncomfortable during points of the season.
Martin shot a putrid 29.9 percent on jump shots outside of the restricted area. Highlighting Martin’s potential as an inside force was his 77.4 conversion rate at the rim, highest on the team.
Mickey proved his dominance at the rim as well, using his superior speed and athleticism to blow by defenders from the high post and finish above the rim.
“From the high post, I can drive, I can shoot or I can pass out of it,” Mickey said. “My range helps me drive to the rim. I can finish above the rim and little bumps don’t really affect me.”
Senior forward Shavon Coleman proved to be the X-factor, either solving or compounding the Tigers’ spacing issues on any given night.
Coleman said his role in the offense was often to roll to the corner when the bigs posted up or one of the guards drove, and Coleman’s inconsistent shooting from the corners often played a large role in Tiger wins or losses.
In the Jan. 15 overtime loss to Ole Miss, Coleman shot 2-for-7 in the left corner, while in the Tigers’ biggest win of the season against Kentucky on Jan. 28, he helped the offense, going 3-for-5 from the same corner.
By losing O’Bryant, potentially shifting Martin to his more comfortable position down low and adding bigger guards like incoming junior college transfer Josh Gray and Keith Hornsby — who missed this season after transferring from UNC-Asheville — could potentially fix the spacing issues that plagued the Tigers throughout the season.
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Interactive: Tigers’ shooting trends show inside-outside approach
By Trey Labat
April 2, 2014
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