Louisiana still has more self-identifying Republicans than the national average, according to a new Gallup poll released yesterday — no surprise there. But the other findings from the survey could be positive for Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, who faces a tough race with Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy as her main competitor.
The polls showed that for the first time since 2010, more Louisianians identify as Democrats than as Republicans. Forty five percent of respondents to the poll said they are registered as Democrats or “lean” toward Democratic beliefs, compared to 41 percent who answered Republican. Those numbers include independents and unregistered voters who lean more to one party than the other.
This, too, is good news for Landrieu, who will be hoping the state’s Democrats come out in force for her in November. But, as is so often the case in races closely divided across party lines, Landrieu’s fate will most likely depend on the votes of the moderates.
Ignoring independents and counting only party hard-liners, Democrats hold a smaller advantage in Louisiana now than they did in 2008, when Landrieu was last up for reelection. This means Landrieu has an even smaller base to depend on than she did then, and will rely more on the votes of moderates.
Louisiana’s jungle primary system — and the fact that there are two Republican candidates with a realistic chance — gives Landrieu an easy path to the runoff, with the state’s conservatives splitting their votes between Cassidy and retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness. Realistically, Cassidy will be the second candidate, as Maness has only drawn about 10 percent of voters in recent polls.
The problem will develop when the runoff arrives. While the state’s Democrats boast a plurality in party identification, ideologically, Louisiana is starkly conservative. The Gallup poll showed that 45 percent of the state identifies as conservative, compared to 34 percent who identify as moderate and only 17 percent who identify as liberals.
While liberals, unless they want to write in Ralph Nader, are unlikely to have much of an option in the runoff, moderates are more likely to swing between the two candidates. Those numbers show just how much Landrieu will rely on the moderate vote. Assuming she entirely carries the moderate vote, the two blocks would be just about enough to get her above the 50 percent mark.
Luckily for Landrieu, the moderates already seem to trend Democratic, and Cassidy, who’ll likely be her final opponent in the runoff, is pretty much a textbook Louisiana Republican.
Cassidy has been a near-constant voice for the oil and petroleum industries in Louisiana, which poses an interesting question. As a state whose workforce resides heavily in those industries, Louisiana is obviously invested in helping them out politically. But those industries are responsible for many of the state’s environmental problems, at least in part. Seeing as Louisianans are particularly sensitive to their environment, it’ll be interesting to see what drives people more.
Other than that, Cassidy has pushed hard against Congressional corruption, sponsoring bills that would force legislators to list earmark requests on their websites. This could work well for him, with Landrieu coming under fire for using Congressional dollars for campaign flights.
Come November, the race will be tight, but Landrieu won’t be able to just rely on those on her side. If she wants a victory, she’ll be forced to look to those in the middle of the aisle.
Gordon Brillon is a 21-year-old mass communication senior from Lincoln, Rhode Island. You can reach him on Twitter @TDR_GBrillon.