Coaches and athletes usually say rankings don’t properly gauge a team’s ability or success.
Any team could thoroughly dominate a game only to find itself on the losing end, which could ultimately drop its ranking in the polls. Conversely, a squad could get blatantly outplayed, squeak out a victory in the end and see its stock suddenly rise. Rankings are that unpredictable.
But the Rating Percentage Index rankings, which are based on a team’s wins, losses and strength of schedule, mean everything in women’s college soccer. The LSU soccer team will have to jump up in the standings if it hopes to be among the 64 clubs competing in the NCAA tournament.
The NCAA released its inaugural 2014 RPI rankings on Monday and had the Tigers (4-5-1) pegged at No. 96, which ranked 12th among 14 Southeastern Conference programs.
But LSU soccer coach Brian Lee isn’t concerned with his team’s current low standing, especially with half of the season remaining.
“The RPI’s a mathematical equation based on a good supply of data, and 10 games isn’t much data,” Lee said. “So you can change that a whole lot over the course of the next six weeks. The most encouraging part of it is how well the SEC fared. We have a lot of opportunity to move up.”
Saying the SEC fared well may be a bit of an understatement. Of the eight conferences with clubs ranked in the RPI’s top 35, the SEC led the way with eight teams represented.
The conference’s early-season dominance is a reason why LSU’s low ranking and sub-.500 record hasn’t troubled Lee yet. The strength of the
Tigers’ schedule, which was ranked as the sixth-hardest to start the season, is just as vital as their wins and losses.
“You not only have to win games, you have to get the right opponents and hope they’re season goes as well as yours,” Lee said. “All we do on Friday nights is focus on our game, hope we win it and then start looking at results to see how the teams on our schedule did.”
But as important as strength of schedule is, wins and losses still heavily factor into the equation.
“You need to have an RPI in the range of top 54 or 55 for at-large selections, and once you’re there, [the NCAA] will take a closer look at your resume.,” Lee said. “What your resume has to have are two or three top-50 wins. I don’t think there’s ever been a team to not make the NCAA Tournament who fits that criteria.”
LSU obtained its only top-50 win on Sept. 11 with a 4-3 victory against BYU, who was ranked No. 49 in the RPI rankings released Monday. The Lady Cougars’ victory against No. 19 Tennessee on Aug. 29 will also factor in the Tigers’ postseason resume.
But LSU dropped two matches against No. 34 Missouri and No. 41 Duke, its other top-50
opponents this season. However, junior midfielder Natalia Gomez-Junco said it’s better for the squad to lose against tougher opponents early instead of defeating lesser competition before the start of SEC play.
“I prefer playing those tough games and learning from them and becoming stronger than easing through everything and getting knocked out in SEC,” Gomez-Junco said.
With seven top-35 teams remaining on their schedule, the Tigers have ample opportunity to build a respectable NCAA resume, which was Lee’s plan all along.
“Certainly the nonconference schedule we chose to play was difficult, but those are the kind of games we like as coaches and players,” Lee said. “We could schedule ourselves for whatever record we want, but we chose a difficult path for the betterment of the long term.”
You can reach David Gray on Twitter @dgray_tdr.