It doesn’t take much reflection or research to find that the SEC did not perform well in this season’s NCAA tournament, a mind-boggling reality considering their expectations heading into it. How does a conference with six above-average seeds produce a single solid run?
To figure that out, we must first understand why their expectations were so high.
Consistency is a valid reason to have elevated expectations and trust in a team or conference. In this case, the SEC fits the mold, as it’s rare that the conference does not produce at least one or two championship contenders per year.
However, that consistency did not run deep throughout the conference until recently, as the conference’s frontrunners were typically four teams in the east in Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The West’s involvement since 2000 wasn’t zero, but it was incredibly rare.
It wasn’t until the late 2010s, long after the conference had merged, that other teams finally built programs that were fit to last.
Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn and LSU rose from the ashes of mediocrity to become consistent tournament teams, with each team having a peak that could rival anyone. And with depth that could contend with the Big Ten and Big 12s, the SEC was bound to gain an edge in seeding.
Through the first few weeks of the season, seven SEC representatives ranked in the top 25, as expectations were high from the start. The results of the regular season were a roller coaster, with many teams experiencing ups and downs throughout.
LSU and Auburn would headline the conference throughout non-conference play while Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas would all drop early due to questionable losses.
Just three of the seven aforementioned teams would remain in position, as Auburn remained at the top and for a while and was argued to be the best team in the country, while Alabama and Florida remained in a desperate crawl to re-obtain their spots in the rankings for the rest of the season. The rest of the teams practically flipped positions, as Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas each climbed back into the rankings while LSU plummeted.
Expectations remained high, but what would ultimately skyrocket them was the SEC-Big 12 Challenge.
The Big 12 was one of the few conferences that rivaled the SEC when it came to projections, headlined by three or four championship contenders just like their counterparts. But when the challenge was finished, it surprisingly turned out to be a landslide.
The SEC slayed the Big 12’s top dogs, with Kentucky dismantling Kansas and Alabama taking down Baylor. The overall score may have been 6-4 in the SEC’s favor, but it felt like the margin was a lot more significant. This challenge was impactful when it came to seeding, especially for Kentucky and Alabama.
By the time Selection Sunday came around, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas were all teams considered worthy of winning a championship and spanned the seeds 2-4. Three-seeded Tennessee and four-seeded Arkansas might have fallen lower than their other SEC-elite counterparts, but they had arguably the hottest ends to their seasons.
Alabama and LSU were seen as dangerous six-seeds with a lot of upside, worthy of making a deep run if either team were to catch fire at the right time. Six teams that have the potential to make a splash would surely amount to at least two or three deep runs from the conference, right?
Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee all ranked in the top-10 most picked champions in the NCAA tournament, with Kentucky ranking in the top five. But by the time the second round had finished, all three were eliminated.
The team with the highest projection was the first to fall, upsetted by eventual Elite Eight participant in No. 15 seed St. Peter’s. Auburn and Tennessee would easily advance to the second round before getting effectively knocked out by double-digit-seeded teams in Miami and Michigan respectively.
Of the remaining representatives, just one would advance past the first round, as each of the six-seeds suffered upsets at the hands of respectable 11-seeds. Arkansas did what it could to properly represent the conference, even taking out the favorite to take in the tournament in Gonzaga, before falling to Duke in the Elite Eight as the SEC’s farthest traveler.
Was the conference overrated? Or did they coincidentally receive tough matchups? Well, it’s a mixed bag.
Alabama and LSU have the best arguments for being overrated, as their inconsistent play throughout conference play was overshadowed by their considerable play early in the season. Alabama had beaten Gonzaga, Houston and Baylor, and LSU had started the season 14-1, but each team posted .500 conference records.
At their best, they genuinely could have made a run, but the same thing could be said about TCU, Memphis, Rutgers and others, who all had equally volatile seasons while being seeded lower.
The rest of the teams that underperformed have arguments in favor of their matchups. St. Peter’s and Miami each made it to the Elite Eight and Michigan made things interesting against in an eventual Final Four team in Villanova.
Though Auburn had slowed down a bit, it started the season 24-2 and had given zero justification of being seeded anywhere lower than two. Tennessee finished the season 12-1 (4-1 against the SEC elite) and capped that run off with a conference title. And Kentucky had lost just four games since its loss to LSU in January, each against the top teams in the conference.
The SEC clearly underperformed and absolutely should have had more Sweet 16 and Elite Eight representatives, but they were not overrated. If anything, this opinion is testament to how much potential these teams displayed throughout the regular season, and how the NCAA tournament can crush even the best of the best.