The LSU men’s basketball program enters the 2022-23 season with conflicted expectations.
While many experts and analysts have the Tigers as a middle-of-the-pack, fringe NCAA tournament team, some also mention their hesitance to underestimate Head Coach Matt McMahon, who has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the last four seasons and advanced in two of those.
Rewind to late March, when McMahon was hired, and those expectations would’ve been questionable, even laughable. Nobody expected this team to even have a chance of making the tournament when he initially took the job, as the team’s once promising roster and incoming recruiting class had essentially dissipated.
Way-to-early projections had the Tigers finishing near the bottom of the SEC, something they haven’t done since the year before Will Wade was hired. But through the transfer portal and what was left of the 2022 recruiting class, McMahon managed to quickly piece together a respectable roster, and LSU’s preseason projection began to rise.
Now, today’s the day we get to see the product, with the Tigers hosting Kansas City this evening. So, what can we expect to see?
Starting Lineup
While the full starting lineup remains a mystery, with McMahon and his coaching staff electing to use its last practice before opening day to make last-minute evaluations, we do have a good idea who will start, at certain positions at least.
Bear in mind, none of this has been confirmed and is purely speculative.
We’ll start with those few returners from last season’s lineup. Of the three who stayed, being Adam Miller, Mwani Wilkinson and Justice Williams, Miller and Wilkinson are expected to start at shooting guard and small forward respectively.
Wilkinson started 30 of the team’s 34 games last season, along with 14 starts in the previous season as a freshman. He has mostly been a defensive specialist for the team over the years and will likely remain one of the more impactful defenders in the country. He also shot 40% from three-point range, being most effective from the corner.
Though the coaching staff has changed since then, McMahon has had nothing but praise for the forward, and has reiterated time-and-time again that he expects this to be the season Wilkinson truly breaks out.
Miller had high expectations entering the 2021-22 season, coming out of Illinois as one of the more prominent threats from three in the Big 10 as a freshman. He led the conference in three pointers made by a freshman on the season with 52 and was expected to prosper in his sophomore season with LSU before a knee injury ended it before it could even begin.
It has been about 19 months since he played college basketball competitively, so it will likely take some time for him to get back in the swing of things. But once he adjusts, he’s expected to break out as well and serve a prominent role on this team.
“He’s had a great preseason. [He’s] an elite shooter, very high-IQ player,” McMahon said on Miller. “I’ve just been really impressed with how he handled that [the injury process]. I think it speaks to his mental toughness and his drive to become the best he can be.”
Other than that, the two players that seem guaranteed to start come Wednesday night each come from McMahon’s former team.
Center KJ Williams had a prominent career with Murray State, capped off by a tremendous senior season where he averaged 18 points and 8.4 rebounds on 54% shooting from the field. He was featured on the 2022 All-SEC Second Team and is expected to be one of the stars for this LSU squad.
Point guard Justice Hill had a similar impact as Williams, averaging 13.4 points and five assists while shooting 36% from three-point range. It’s worth noting that Hill strongly improved in every shooting category between his sophomore and junior season, particularly from the field and free throw line.
He was the first person McMahon mentioned when asked about the backcourt, who included experience and his proficiency in both facilitating the offense and scoring as his biggest strengths heading into the season.
That leaves one position to speculate over.
The Four Spot
The four spot is a mystery at the time of writing this. However, that question should be answered tonight.
So far, there are three primary candidates: freshmen Jalen Reed and Tyrell Ward, and Murray State transfer Trae Hannibal, but it may not even be one of those three.
Besides Mwani Wilkinson and Adam Miller, Reed may be the player that McMahon has praised the most entering the season and personally, I expect he’ll man the four to the start the game against Kansas City. According to McMahon, he isn’t your typical power forward despite standing at 6’10”, as he’s most proficient off the dribble as opposed to being a back-to-the-basket, post-up player.
“He’s different than any player I’ve ever coached,” McMahon said on Reed. “He’s a very skilled, off-the-dribble creator.”
If Ward were to start, he would operate more as a second small forward to Mwani Wilkinson than a power forward, standing at a modest 6’6” and weighing about 185 pounds. Similar to Reed, he possesses a lot of potential as a scorer and should serve a considerable role even if he doesn’t start.
“6’6” on the wing, wired to score, long arms,” McMahon said when describing Ward. “Really could be as good of a player as he wants to be if he stays committed to the process here.”
Hannibal is a bit of a stretch, and he shouldn’t be expected to operate at the four if he does start, standing at 6’2”. However, he proved to be a great rebounder as a guard last season, averaging five per game in the category. Even if he doesn’t start, that factor makes him incredibly useful, especially if McMahon decides to put out a smaller lineup.
“He’s a different guard,” McMahon said on Hannibal. “Big, physical, looks like a middle linebacker, playing combo guard with his explosiveness and ability to defend.”
There are plenty of other candidates that can be expected to be seen starting at the four, such as Derek Fountain, Shawn Phillips and Kendal Coleman, but it’s currently a very difficult position to gauge.
The Remaining Rotation
According to McMahon, they are expecting to utilize an eight or nine-man lineup. It’s likely they’ll mix in as many players as possible early on to see who wants it more and works the best within his scheme.
Shawn Phillips stands at 7’0” and has worked tirelessly to get to where he is today, dropping over 70 pounds in the past two years according to McMahon. He’s mobile and a great shot blocker as well, which is a dangerous combination defensively.
Fountain and Coleman should serve roles as well, coming out of Mississippi State and Northwestern State respectively. Fountain possesses a lot of experience at the SEC level but did have a noticeable drop in playtime between his freshman and sophomore seasons.
Coleman doesn’t possess the SEC experience like Fountain does, but he displayed a lot of potential in his sophomore season with Northwestern State. He averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds on 54.6% shooting from the field while also blocking one shot per game in each of his two seasons with the program.
He’ll experience a huge uptick in competition playing in the SEC, but if he adjusts, he can definitely play a vital role on the team.
The remaining backcourt players that should be expected to have playing time early on are returning Tiger Justice Williams and North Carolina State transfer Cam Hayes.
Williams wasn’t amazing in his freshman year with LSU, but he does come into this season with good experience at the SEC level and an offseason of preparation under his belt. He possesses great length and athleticism; he just needs to improve his shooting if he expects to earn playing time.
And Hayes was a streaky shooter at NC State, with high highs like his 16-point performance against North Carolina where he shot 80% from three and low lows like a 14% shooting performance against Louisville. Though he shot under 40% from the field last season, he did shoot a modest 36.4% from three, and could provide the Tigers with a spark if they’re in need of some quick points.
This team isn’t expected to do anything crazy this season, but it does possess the pieces to surprise people if certain players live up to or exceed expectations. It should be an interesting season no matter what happens, and we should have a better idea of what this team is capable of very soon.
