It’s been a minute.
Though I originally planned to cover each weekend’s games, that didn’t happen and for that, I sincerely apologize. I hope that hasn’t offended those who tune into each rendition of this beloved series.
To make up for missing out on the last few weeks, I’ll look to finish the season with the strongest weekend yet.
Let’s get into it.
Henry’s Last Week (Week 10): 3-2
Henry’s Season: 30-25 (.545)
The last time I did this series, Tennessee was No. 1 in the country, USC was still underperforming against PAC-12 bottom feeders and Clemson, Alabama and Oregon were still playoff contenders. A lot has changed since then, naturally considering this is college football.
It’s been an incredible season and it’s not over yet by any means. I have a feeling rivalry week is going to shake things up more than people expect. With that being said, let’s get into the picks.
The Picks:
Michigan vs. Ohio State, 11 a.m. CT, FOX
The Pick: Michigan +8
I know Blake Corum is coming off an injury, but if he ends up playing like he intends to, Michigan has a serious chance to jump Ohio State as the Big Ten’s playoff representative, barring it doesn’t falter in the Big Ten Championship game after it wins.
While the Wolverines haven’t faced many stout rushing defenses, the ones they have faced haven’t been effective at holding Corum back.
Against Penn State (No. 21 against the rush), Iowa (No. 17) and Illinois (No. 7), he combined for 407 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry. As it stands, Ohio State ranks No. 15 in the country in the category, and I doubt it shuts him down even with the back coming off a knee injury. It also hasn’t faced an offense that ranks inside the top-25 in rushing yards per game.
On the other hand, C.J. Stroud has not faced a secondary as proficient as Michigan’s, who’s secondary is No. 5 in opposing passing yards per game. The closest its faced was Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish held the Heisman favorite to 223 yards on 6.5 yards per attempt.
Couple that with a more impressive win against Penn State, the opponents’ best shared opponent, and I think Michigan takes it here.
The Score: Michigan 31-28 Ohio State
Oregon vs. Oregon State, 2:30 p.m. CT, ABC
The Pick: Oregon –2
Though Oregon State sports one of the more proficient defenses and hasn’t lost at home since its loss to USC back in September, I still think Oregon, fighting for a spot in the PAC-12 championship, takes this one.
For one, the teams the Beavers have faced at Reser Stadium since the Trojans are Washington State, Colorado and Cal. Beating the Cougars by two scores is a solid win but I wouldn’t say they compare to the PAC-12 elites (though they did give Oregon a serious scare earlier in the season).
Two, Oregon State lacks the passing game to keep up with the Ducks if it falls behind. Since Chance Nolan was sidelined with a neck injury, its pass offense has been inconsistent at best, against defenses that aren’t normally built to be effective in the category. While the Beavers rush for nearly 200 yards per game and running back Damien Martinez has rushed for over 100 yards in his last five games, that’s the one thing the Oregon defense is successful against.
The Ducks take it here, but I still suspect it will be a nail biter.
The Score: Oregon 27-24 Oregon State
Notre Dame vs. USC, 6:30 p.m. CT, ABC
The Pick: Notre Dame +4
The Trojans face the first legitimate defense since their loss to Utah. Unlike the Utes, I don’t see the Irish giving up 42 points here.
Since its loss to Stanford midway through October, Notre Dame has gotten it together, sporting dominant wins over Clemson, Syracuse and Boston College, who it most recently shut out. It comes into this game with an incredible chance to cement itself as a legitimate team to look out for in the years to come.
In its last four games, it has committed just three turnovers, a problem that had plagued them earlier in the season but no longer seems to be a problem. That includes committing zero against Clemson, a considerable feat that shouldn’t be glossed over. The USC defense relies heavily on turnovers and gets torched when it can’t force them, so I see it being a problem for the Trojans if they’re unable to force the Irish to make mistakes.
In a game that could decide whether USC continues to contend for the playoff, this game will be the one to silence the Trojan fan base.
The Score: Notre Dame 31-28 USC
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt, 6:30 p.m. CT, SECN
The Pick: Vanderbilt +14
The Commodores are coming off their two most impressive victories in recent memory over Kentucky and Florida, games in which they were 17 and 14-point underdogs respectively. I have a feeling their improbable run continues, as they scrape into a bowl game at the very end of Clark Lea’s second season with the program.
It’s improbable, even with Hendon Hooker out for the season, I just have a feeling.
The Score: Vanderbilt 35-34 Tennessee
Washington vs. Washington State, 9:30 p.m. CT, ESPN
The Pick: Washington State +2
Statistically, I would never pick Washington State in this one. It barely sports a positive yardage differential and has the tendency to get torched through the air from time to time. But there are other factors in play that have me thinking otherwise.
At home, The Cougars have managed near-upsets against No. 9 Oregon and No. 14 Utah. Other than that, they are undefeated at Martin Stadium, including a three-score win over Cal. They’re also coming into the game with a similar level of momentum as Washington, coming off three straight wins to enter this game with an unexpected, 7-4 record.
I think this Washington State team finally picks up its marquee win this season, in its final regular-season game no less.
