It seems like the near future is relatively straightforward when it comes to the LSU football team, especially with it now having the SEC West crown under wraps. Win against Georgia and it probably makes the College Football Playoff. Lose against Georgia and it lands in a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Those scenarios are possible, sure, and will certainly be discussed in this article. But there are still two regular season games remaining on the schedule and though wins in each of those are probable, they’re not guaranteed. There’s still plenty of football left to be played before the Tigers travel to Atlanta, and that means plenty of room for heartbreak.
In this article, I will propose three possibilities that I believe could occur through LSU’s last three games heading into bowl season, ranging from least to most likely. Let’s get into it.
3. LSU beats Georgia, makes the College Football Playoff
Since LSU’s miserable loss to Tennessee, a lot has changed. Besides the Arkansas game, Jayden Daniels has become what the more optimistic fans were expecting from him, a borderline Heisman candidate that possesses confidence and proficiency in both his passing and rushing abilities. The run game, special teams unit, offensive line and defense have also improved, with the latter being the primary reason I suspect this outcome could occur.
The recent uptick in Harold Perkins’ play time has transformed the LSU defense into one of the scariest units in the country. Through three quarters with the freshman heavily involved, the unit held Alabama to nine points. He was also a big reason why Ole Miss managed zero second half points against the Tigers.
Those are both proficient offenses, especially the Tide, who currently match Georgia’s points per game on the season while playing a tougher schedule. If the unit can perform like that for four quarters against the Bulldogs and force some mistakes, it could put the Tigers in a position to win.
A scenario where they win here would be one where each team struggles to score. I guarantee LSU will so it will have to prevent Georgia from getting ahead if it wants to have a chance. I also guarantee that if it does pull off the upset here, there’s no way the committee will keep it out of the playoffs.
LSU has displayed the ability to look off intimidating competition since the Tennessee loss and has already surprised Vegas once, defeating Alabama despite being 13.5-point underdogs. Not many expected the Tigers to win there, just like not many expect them to beat Georgia. LSU has continuously overcome adversity throughout the latter portion of the season, so what’s stopping it here?
Well, we’ll get there.
2. LSU suffers a trap-game loss, loses to Georgia
I’m not saying this is probable, considering the next one is much more likely. I’m just saying it’s more likely than LSU beating Georgia.
The teams that remain on its schedule are 5-5 UAB and 3-7 Texas A&M, two teams that have grossly undershot their preseason expectations but still possess the talent to cause problems for LSU.
All five of UAB’s losses have been by one score, including losses against Liberty and UTSA. Liberty beat Arkansas and UTSA had Texas on the ropes through three quarters, so I suspect the Blazers could give a Power Five team a scare at least. However, the much-more-likely spoiler would have to be Texas A&M.
I know the Aggies are 3-7 and sport a six-game losing streak but a closer look at their schedule reveals that they still have the capability to compete with the conference’s best. They’ve risen to the occasion each time they’ve faced off against a top-15 team this season and though their wins over Miami and Arkansas don’t hold any merit at all, their close losses to Alabama and Ole Miss do.
Their last two losses to Florida and Auburn indicate they’ve given up on the season, and it’s unclear if their star running back in Devon Achane will be cleared to play by then, but the prospect of crushing LSU’s playoff chances is enough motivation to give it their all, considering the rivalry and what the Tigers did to Texas A&M at the end of last season. Not to mention the game will take place in College Station, a setting LSU hasn’t won in since 2016.
Spoilers have been a thing in sports for as long as they’ve existed, and they are especially prevalent in college football. West Virginia missed out on the BCS National Championship in 2007 because it lost to 4-7 Pitt, one week after No. 1 LSU’s title hopes almost got spoiled by an unranked Arkansas. Oklahoma State suffered the same heartbreak as the Mountaineers in 2011 when it lost to 5-4 Iowa State. Ohio State surrendered two potential back-to-back playoff appearances with midseason losses to unranked teams in 2017 and 2018.
It isn’t outside of the realm of possibility that LSU’s playoff hopes end before it gets to Atlanta. If that happens, I doubt it goes into that game with much momentum on its side.
1. LSU finishes regular season 10-2, loses to Georgia
The Tigers are in a great position to close out Brian Kelly’s first season as head coach with 10 wins, shattering even their most optimistic preseason and midseason projections in the process. All Kelly has to do is keep his players’ heads in the game and with the way he’s been able to motivate them to overcome adversity lately, that shouldn’t be a problem.
It doesn’t seem like they’re looking ahead to the SEC championship just yet. They want to give spectators a show in the next two games that indicates they deserve their top-10 ranking.
“I want to blow them out, that’s how I feel. I wish we would have blown out Arkansas,” linebacker Micah Baskerville said on the team’s last two opponents. “I just want to show the world we’re a great team and that we’re going to be hard to beat.”
While getting through the last two regular season games is probable, Georgia is a different story.
Despite the Tigers defeating Ole Miss and Alabama in back-to-back games, LSU vs. Georgia is still very much a David vs. Goliath type matchup. That’s not discounting what the Tigers have managed to accomplish since their loss to Tennessee, that’s just how good the Georgia Bulldogs are.
Head Coach Kirby Smart has built the Georgia football program into one that matches the dominance of Saban and Alabama in the 2010s. I’m not saying Alabama is no longer the team to beat in the SEC. It still is, especially in the West division, but I believe it’ll be a different story in five years or so.
LSU will face Georgia in what’s basically an away game, as Athens is just over an hour away from where the teams will be clashing come December. Though fans won’t admit it, the Tigers have struggled on the road this season, with their only impressive performance away from Death Valley coming against Florida.
While Georgia had some head scratchers earlier in the season, it has been unstoppable since its near loss to Missouri at the start of October. Its blowout victories over Florida and Mississippi State compared to LSU’s performances against the same teams should raise some concerns, but that’s not the most daunting fact: it has not struggled against top-10 competition once this season.
That includes a win against Tennessee in which the Bulldogs showed no signs of struggle against an opponent that crushed LSU in October. While it’s a much different team than it was in that loss, I suspect that Georgia is just on a different level compared to LSU and the whole country in general. What it has done in games it likely expected to be a challenge is scary to say the least.
While we can endlessly speculate on how this season will end, no one will truly know until these games happen. That doesn’t diminish the fact that Kelly is three games away from becoming an LSU legend, one season into his career with the program.
