It’s Saturday night in Death Valley. When No. 10 LSU and No. 6 Alabama meet this weekend, it could be the defining game of both team’s seasons. The winner will have the inside route to the SEC Championship and hold first place in the SEC West.
With how these two teams have looked this season, it might be tempting to say that anything could happen. LSU is clearly peaking, especially offensively, and its defense had an important bounce back game against a great Ole Miss offense. Alabama, on the other hand, as good of a team as it is, seems to have some uncharacteristic flaws this year.
And yet, as always, it’s hard to bet against the Crimson Tide. A more appropriate theme for this article might be LSU might win if…, because you can do a lot right against Alabama and still come up short.
Nevertheless, here are some important factors to consider that could swing this game one way or the other.
LSU will lose if…
Bryce Young is allowed to get comfortable and in a rhythm.
Everyone knows Young is one of the best quarterbacks in America, but Alabama’s offense hasn’t been quite as effective this year as it was the year before. Most of that blame doesn’t fall on Young, but on the offense around him.
Alabama’s offensive line has had its struggles this year. In Alabama’s games against Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Mississippi State (their lone loss and their three worst offensive performances on the year), the line allowed a pressure on 34.3% of the team’s drop backs. LSU has the personnel to take advantage of this weakness, but if it fails to do so, Bryce Young will have a field day.
Young’s receiver group is also much less experienced this year. There’s no standout No. 1 receiver, and Alabama has had six different leading receivers in its eight games. That means Young doesn’t have a reliable outlet whenever he’s under pressure. However, Young is so good that he’s perfectly capable of running an egalitarian offense and spreading the ball around, especially if he’s given time to do so.
LSU will win if…
It can win the red zone on both sides.
LSU and Alabama have had similar red zone success this year. Both have had 38 red zone attempts, and LSU has scored 28 touchdowns on those attempts to Alabama’s 27.
In its last two games, LSU has scored nine touchdowns on its 11 red zone attempts. The Tigers have been great at operating in those close quarters, as the offensive line has been moving opposing defenses and Daniels’s legs are a potent weapon in the red zone.
In those aforementioned four games against Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Mississippi State, Alabama’s performances have been marked by underwhelming success in the red zone. Those matches saw Alabama convert only eight touchdowns on its 15 red zone attempts, a 53% clip.
If LSU can be more efficient than Alabama in the red zone, it will surely make a big difference on the scoreboard.
LSU will lose if…
The Alabama defense dictates the game flow.
Alabama’s game against Tennessee when it allowed 52 points stands as an outlier at this point in the season, because the Crimson Tide’s defense is a great unit. It shuts down the run, has star pass-rushers and is getting better in terms of stopping the pass.
Last week against Mississippi State, with Alabama’s offense not playing its best, the defense held Mississippi State to 6 points and forced the Bulldogs to go three-and-out five times. That performance came despite facing 60 pass attempts. It was Eli Ricks’s first start as a member of the Crimson Tide, and a great start at that. His emergence gives Alabama’s secondary a boost.
LSU’s offense has been at its best when it goes up-tempo, but if Alabama’s defense stops them from getting anything going, it will be a rough day for the Tigers. If LSU falls into an early deficit as it’s been known to do, Alabama’s defense won’t loosen up.
LSU will win if…
Jayden Daniels continues to play like a Heisman candidate.
That’s a high bar, but that might be what it will take for LSU to get a win against Alabama. LSU’s run game is still unproven despite some improved performances lately. The best rush defense the Tigers have faced this year besides Tennessee, who held LSU to 55 yards on the ground, is Mississippi State, ranked No. 59 in the country in rushing yards allowed. Alabama is No. 12.
Daniels may have to carry the offense, and he’s shown he’s capable of doing that in the past two games, with 11 touchdowns and 762 yards across that stretch. His rushing ability continues to be potent, but he’s picking his spots to scramble with more care than he was earlier in the season. He and the talented receiving group have gotten into a rhythm together, and Daniels has recently been taking deep shots and trusting his receivers with jump balls, a recipe that has worked well.
Alabama’s defense is likely the best he’s faced all year, but it’s simple: if Daniels doesn’t play at an elite level, LSU doesn’t win.
