Insanity involving the bottom half of the top-25 made last week particularly impactful. Seven teams that were unranked in Week 5 got the nod in Week 6, with some of those teams being featured in this week’s rendition of our Weekly Pick ‘Em series.
Before we get into those, let’s talk about how my picks went last weekend.
Henry’s Last Week: 3-2
Henry’s Season: 17-13
Oregon State vs. Utah (-10.5)
Final Score: Utah 42 Oregon State 16 W
Alabama vs. Arkansas (+17)
Final Score: Alabama 49 Arkansas 26 L
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor (-2.5)
Final Score: Oklahoma State 36 Baylor 25 L
Georgia Southern (+9.5) vs. Coastal Carolina
Final Score: Coastal Carolina 34 Georgia Southern 30 W
Indiana vs. Nebraska (-5.5)
Final Score: Nebraska 35 Indiana 21 W
I did it again. Despite claiming Arkansas could upset Georgia last season and being completely wrong, I decided this game was the game where the Razorbacks would finally pull off their first top-five victory of the Pittman Era. Safe to say, it went just as poorly as the last one.
Not only that, Arkansas gave me hope at the end of the third quarter when it scored 23 unanswered points to briefly alleviate Alabama’s presumed insurmountable 28-0 lead it held up until the final moments of the first half.
But thankfully, that was the worst of it. Baylor got out to a slow start and looked on par with Oklahoma State during the second half, but the Cowboys still proved me wrong. They have some unexpected challenges to look forward to in Kansas and TCU, along with Kansas State, but they look like they can take the Big 12 title.
Other than that, the picks that I was most worried about in Utah and Nebraska surprisingly didn’t make me sweat much, as I concluded my fourth straight week with a winning record.
Let’s get into this week’s picks.
Purdue vs. Maryland (11 a.m. CT, BTN)
The Pick: Maryland -3
Both these teams are confusing, with Purdue’s two losses coming from touchdowns in the final minute of each game. It went toe-to-toe with Penn State, who is now in the top-10 in the country, and Syracuse, who’s undefeated and was also added to the top-25 in its most recent rendition.
On the other side, Maryland is 4-1 with its singular loss coming against Michigan, losing to a top-five team by just seven points. Outside of that, the Terrapins also beat Michigan State and SMU. In their matchup against the Mustangs, they struggled against the pass but made up for it by forcing three turnovers.
Each team sports impressive losses and looks to be on the rise after spending a few years under new leadership, with Purdue posting its first winning record in 2021 since 2017 and Maryland posting its first since 2014. I’m expecting a great game.
With that being said, I have to pick one of these teams, I’m going with the Terps. While the Boilermakers picked up an impressive win in its last bout against Minnesota, there’s an asterisk by that victory due to the fact that the Gophers were playing without its best contributor on offense in Mohamed Ibrahim. Purdue also has a way of blowing close games lately, and I expect this one to be tight.
Score: Maryland 37-33 Purdue
Utah vs. UCLA (2:30 p.m. CT, FOX)
The Pick: Utah -3.5
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the real deal, don’t get me wrong. I expect this to be an incredible battle between him and the Utah defense, which is in the top-10 in defensive efficiency according to ESPN.
With that being said, I believe Utah has the edge here. I feel the same about the UCLA team as I do about Tennessee. The Bruins have a strong offense that gave Washington a headache last weekend, but the Huskie defense is a good step downward compared to the one that takes the field for the Utes.
There’s also a part of me that believes Washington largely underestimated UCLA, but that’s just speculation based on how slow the Huskies came out in that one. Both teams had great victories in Week Five but in my opinion, Utah’s 26-point rout of Oregon State was more impressive.
If you have time, try not to miss this game.
Score: Utah 31-24 UCLA
East Carolina vs. Tulane (2:30 p.m. CT, ESPNU)
The Pick: Tulane -3
This game features the best offense in the American Conference (East Carolina) and its second best defense (Tulane), which makes this game incredibly interesting and difficult to pick.
Each team also has an impressive performance against a Power Five team that’s currently ranked under its belt, with the Pirates coming incredibly close to upsetting North Carolina State in Week One and the Green Wave actually defeating Kansas State a few weeks later. These teams are balanced in a lot of categories, including point differential, yardage differential, turnover margin and penalties.
But there are slight discrepancies in the teams’ overall efficiencies due to East Carolina’s ineffectiveness on defense and special teams, the latter of which still haunts ECU fans to this day. The Pirates rank near the bottom of the conference in both categories despite improving defensively.
That gives the Green Wave the edge here.
Score: Tulane 29-24 East Carolina
Washington State vs. USC (6:30 p.m. CT, FOX)
The Pick: Washington State +13
The Cougars have to be one of the strangest 4-1 teams in the country. Despite having one of the most inefficient offenses in the PAC-12, they managed to put up 41 points against Oregon and have just flat-out been a solid football team this season.
They place at the top of the conference in both defensive and special teams efficiency, and though its win over Wisconsin has lost its merit, its near-upset of Oregon and its 19-point victory over 3-2 Cal are impressive. I have a feeling Washington State is in good hands under Jake Dickert, who’s currently in the midst of his first full season as a head coach.
The Cougars will struggle against the Trojans due to each team’s turnover margin (USC is the best team in the country in that category while Washington State turns the ball over more than almost anyone) but I still feel like they will find a way to keep this close. Who knows, maybe this is the game where the Trojans finally fall.
Score: USC 21-15 Washington State
South Carolina vs. Kentucky (6:30 p.m. CT, SECN)
The Pick: Kentucky -6
Will Levis has been ruled out for this one, which makes redshirt-freshman Kaiya Sheron the starting quarterback for Kentucky for this game. While Sheron hasn’t attributed a single competitive snap for the Wildcats, I don’t expect him to perform poorly for multiple reasons.
For one, his highlight tape on Rivals.com showed off some strong traits for a quarterback. His deep ball is accurate and he has innate pocket awareness, along with the impressive ability to escape it whenever it breaks down. He has also had two offseasons to develop, and despite his first offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, leaving to join the Rams in the NFL, the Wildcats replaced him with Rich Scangarello, who was the quarterbacks coach for the 49ers prior to his move to Kentucky.
South Carolina’s secondary is a rough one to debut against, but it’s likely that Sheron will serve
Score: Kentucky 23-16 South Carolina
Peter’s Picks:
TCU vs. Kansas (11 a.m. CT, FS1)
The pick: TCU -7
Sorry college football fans, this one is going to break some hearts. The Kansas fairytale is coming to an end this week.
Though what Kansas has done to this point in the season is pretty astonishing, this is the week the Jayhawks bite off more than they can chew. TCU showed last week how dominant it can be with its big win over Oklahoma, which has me worried for Kansas’ sake.
In a big home game, I think Kansas will be ready to play and make things interesting early on. However, I think the TCU offense will eventually overpower the Jayhawks and pull away quite easily down the stretch. The Kansas run was fun, but unfortunately it’s downhill from here.
Score: TCU 45-30 Kansas
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State (11 a.m. CT, SEC Network)
The pick: Mississippi State -9
Arkansas is another team whose season could unravel quickly with another loss here. I can already see that train wreck coming.
Arkansas is coming off back-to-back losses, and is also now without its starting quarterback going into a tough road game against Mississippi State. On top of the recent struggles, the Razorbacks don’t match up well in this game at all. Arkansas’ pass defense has been objectively bad all year after the loss of Jalen Catalon, and playing the air raid offense is not a good match with that.
Mississippi State is in the opposite position, riding high after a blowout win over Texas A&M. The Bulldogs have continually picked up steam since losing to LSU, and I think that continues with another comfortable win this week.
Score: Mississippi State 31-17 Arkansas
BYU vs. Notre Dame (6:30 p.m. CT, NBC)
The pick: BYU +3.5
This feels like a classic example of a crossroads game. A perfect opportunity for Notre Dame to turn its season back around, and an opportunity for BYU to put itself back on the national stage.
This is one of the most slept on games of the day in my opinion, and I think it will deliver. Notre Dame looked to be getting it together in a win over North Carolina, and now coming off a bye week, the Fighting Irish come into this game refreshed. BYU is coming off back-to-back wins after the blowout loss to Oregon, albeit against weaker opposition.
At this point in the season, though, I trust BYU more than I trust Notre Dame. In a neutral site game where the crowd will likely favor BYU, I think the Cougars win this, providing momentum for their big game against Arkansas next week.
Score: BYU 24-21 Notre Dame
Florida State vs. North Carolina State (7 p.m. CT, ACC Network)
The pick: North Carolina State -3.5
I find it almost criminal that this game was relegated to the ACC Network. This game will go a long way in determining the pecking order in the ACC.
Both teams are coming off tough losses, and are looking to bounce back and stay in contention for the ACC Atlantic. Or at least fight for that second place spot behind Clemson. Florida State looked impressive in each of its first four games before losing to Wake Forest, and I still think the Seminoles are an underrated team.
However, I think North Carolina State is still further along than them at this point in the season. At home, I think that defense is too much for Florida State to handle. I think this game will be close and relatively low scoring, but I think North Carolina State pulls away in the end.
Score: North Carolina State 23-17 Florida State
Oregon State vs. Stanford (10 p.m. CT, ESPN)
The pick: Stanford +4.5
Time to get weird with this one. For the final game of the weekend, we head to the west coast to watch, in all honesty, two mediocre football teams.
Stanford may look worse than mediocre on paper, but I don’t think its record tells the full story. Since its opening win over Colgate, the Cardinal have had a gauntlet of a schedule, playing USC, Washington and Oregon in consecutive weeks. While Oregon State is no pushover, I think having this game at home gives Stanford a chance to get back on track.
For Oregon State, this game comes off a close loss to USC, followed by a blowout loss to Utah. Morale could be a bit down for the Beavers after starting the season hot, and quickly having things derailed. Based on the momentum coming into this game, this feels like it has the makings of an upset. I like Stanford to win outright.
Score: Stanford 27-24 Oregon State