This week of college football has the potential to shake up a lot of conferences, with the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and PAC-12 featuring multiple games where their best will be challenged. We’ve got a lot of great games to look forward to, and with that comes a multitude of fun games to try and predict.
But before we get into this week’s action, let’s take a look at how last week went.
Henry’s Last Week: 4-1
Henry’s Season: 14-11
Florida vs. Tennessee (-10.5)
Final Score: Tennessee 38 Florida 33 (L)
Minnesota (-3) vs. Michigan State
Final Score: Minnesota 34 Michigan State 7 (W)
Marshall vs. Troy (+3)
Final Score: Troy 16 Marshall 7 (W)
Kansas State (+12.5) vs. Oklahoma
Final Score: Kansas State 41 Oklahoma 34 (W)
Stanford vs. Washington (-13.5)
Final Score: Washington 40 Stanford 22 (W)
I’m happy to say things have finally been looking up after a tough start to the season. Since beginning 4-6 through two weeks, I have had three weeks with winning records, with the most recent being the best of the season.
In fact, I came just 17 seconds away from posting the first 5-0 record of Reveille Weekly Pick ‘Em history, but unfortunately Florida’s garbage time touchdown kept that from happening.
Other than that, Minnesota exceeded expectations that were already high after a great start to the season, Oklahoma was upset by Kansas State again, Marshall’s win over Notre Dame was proven to be a fluke after two straight losses and Washington displayed legitimacy in a game that could have very easily been overlooked.
With that out of the way, let’s get into these picks. 5-0, here we come.
Oregon State vs. Utah, 1:00 p.m. CT,
PAC12
The Pick: Utah -10.5
I loved the upset pick here originally, with Oregon State nearly taking down USC at home last weekend. There were a few factors that made me change my mind though. For one, near-upset hangover is a thing.
This doesn’t occur every time, but I’ve witnessed a few instances over my time as a college football fan. A prominent example that comes to mind was when Miami hosted a Winston-led Florida State squad and nearly knocked them out of the college football playoff.
It followed up the impressive loss with two that weren’t nearly as impressive, losing to Virginia and Pitt by a combined 29 to finish the regular season 6-6.
The Beavers are a solid squad and they should bounce back, but I have a feeling this one will be tough. Utah has impressed since its loss to Florida and while I understand its better wins came against San Diego State and Arizona State, the latter of which just fired its head coach, I would still call the 24.5 average point margin in those games a bounce back.
Both offenses are balanced, but Oregon State gives up over 150 yards per game on the ground and I believe Utah’s top-25 rushing offense will do well to exploit that. Not to mention its defense is No. 16 in total yards per game against FBS opponents according to teamrankings.com.
Score: Utah 31 Oregon State 16
Alabama vs. Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. CT,
CBS
The Pick: Arkansas +17
That line gives me flashbacks to Arkansas’s matchup with Georgia last season, but this feels like a much different situation.
The Razorbacks sport a 3-1 record with a tough start to their schedule, having already matched up against Cincinnati, South Carolina and Texas A&M while the Crimson Tide narrowly avoided a loss on the road to a fluky Texas squad, and have played no one relevant besides that.
While Alabama has a stout run defense and Arkansas is more known for running the ball, its secondary got picked apart by Texas and Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson has continuously displayed efficiency in the pass. He’s completing 70% of his passes on the year and has thrown just one interception to eight touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide will struggle to stop them in this one and its offense did not look very impressive against a Texas defense that gave up 37 points to Texas Tech. The upset bug finally reaches the top-four this weekend.
Score: Arkansas 38 Alabama 34
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, 2:30 p.m
CT, CBS
The Pick: Baylor -2.5
I don’t have too much to say about either team’s 2022 resume, as they’re both difficult to gauge.
Oklahoma State gave up 44 points and over 500 yards in its opening matchup against Central Michigan and followed that up with an unimpressive win against Arizona State and an FCS blowout. And Baylor lost to an overrated BYU team but looked impressive in its most recent bout against Iowa State, with its other wins coming against Albany and Texas State.
That’s all we’ve got to go off of, but a fact worth noting is that Baylor’s two marquee matchups came on the road. The Bears have not lost at home since 2020, defeating the likes of Iowa State, BYU, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas State in front of their home crowd in 2021. I expect that win streak at home to continue here, as sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen shakes up the Cowboy defense.
Last second field goal though, this one will be close.
Score: Baylor 27 Oklahoma State 24
Georgia Southern vs. Coastal
Carolina, 6:00 p.m. CT, ESPN+
The Pick: Georgia Southern +9.5
Contrary to popular belief, Coastal Carolina has not looked that impressive this season. I mean, Grayson McCall has, but everyone else? Meh.
Its defense has given up 27 points to Gardner Webb, 26 to Buffalo, who lost to Holy Cross, and over 270 yards passing per game, which just so happens to be Georgia Southern’s specialty. Yes, that is still strange to say, as this team ran the triple option not too long ago.
The Eagles beat out the Chanticleers in point differential despite playing tougher opponents UAB and Ball State, and they almost do the same in yardage differential as well. While I still expect Coastal to pull this one off, I expect it to be tight until the very end.
Score: Coastal Carolina 42 Georgia Southern 34
Indiana vs. Nebraska, 6:30 p.m. CT,
BTN
The Pick: Nebraska -5.5
This has the same feel as BYU-Oregon did a few weekends ago. Every statistic and win or loss is pointing to a Hoosier victory but I just have a gut feeling Nebraska is going to pull it together for this one.
Oklahoma was a tough first game for interim-head coach Mickey Joseph, but after having a bye week, he’s had plenty of time to figure things out. It won’t be a blowout but I can see Nebraska winning in this one. They have the talent, they just need a proper leader to lead it in the right direction.
