This week of college football is particularly exciting, featuring important matchups in every Power Five conference, most of which have playoff implications. There are six ranked matchups on Saturday, all of which feature at least one playoff contender.
With that being said, let’s get into it.
Henry’s Last Week: 1-4
Henry’s Season: 18-17
Purdue vs. Maryland (-3) L
Utah vs. UCLA (-3.5) L
East Carolina vs. Tulane (-3) W
Washington State (+13) vs. USC L
South Carolina vs. Kentucky (-6) L
Ah yes, there’s nothing like being back on the edge of .500. Unfortunately, my streak of winning weeks came to an end last week, with nothing going right from the start.
UCLA proved to be a worthy contender in the PAC-12, moving up to 6-0 with a telling victory over a strong Utah squad. USC also got the better of me again, as betting against them has proven to be a bad idea this season (who would’ve thought). It might finally go down, facing off against Utah this weekend, but I’m not holding my breath at this point.
Thankfully, Tulane saved me from my first 0-5 week, but it was a little too close for comfort. Let’s hope this week goes better.
Henry’s Picks:
Penn State vs. Michigan, 11 a.m. CT, FOX
The Pick: Michigan -7
Personally, I’m not sure how Penn State got into the top-10. Good on them for winning some tough games, with its win over Purdue being noteworthy and its win over Northwestern being… not a loss. But unfortunately, most good things must come to an end at some point.
While Michigan had a scare against Maryland a few weeks back, its ability to control the flow of games was on full display in the fourth quarter of that game. The Wolverines managed to score on their last four possessions, along with a clutch interception, to put it away.
That fourth quarter performance carried into its next two games against Iowa and Indiana, which weren’t high profile wins, but were still impressive in their own right. Michigan managed to put up enough points through three quarters against Iowa’s potent defense to feel comfortable going into the fourth, and it outpaced Indiana by over 300 yards in its most recent bout.
Penn State’s last game came before its bye against one of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern. While its defense held the Wildcats to seven points, its offense did everything it could to get in its way of winning. The Nittany Lions turned the ball over five times, and you can’t do that and expect to take down Michigan.
Score: Michigan 28-16 Penn State
UConn vs. Ball State, 1:00 p.m. CT, ESPN3
The Pick: UConn +9.5
UConn remains one of the strangest football stories of the 21st century. After putting up eight or more wins every season from 2007 to 2010, the team fell off in the biggest way imaginable, and has made just one bowl game since its Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2010.
Although its current average point differential of -12 and yardage differential of -116 indicate this season isn’t much different, its 3-4 record proves otherwise. And the Huskies have a tough span of Power Five matchups featuring top-25 teams in Syracuse, North Carolina State and Michigan to thank for their shaky statistics.
While Ball State is a solid team in the MAC and should pull a victory here, I expect UConn to keep it interesting with its ability to run the ball and its pass defense over the last few weeks. The Cardinals have a run defense giving up nearly 200 yards per game, which the Huskies have managed to match despite its aforementioned matchups.
They are coming off two straight victories, in which its defense shined, giving up an average of 13 points against Fresno State and Florida International.
UConn will probably need this game to not break the Over/Under of 47.5 to take it, but I don’t think that’s impossible.
Score: Ball State 23-21 UConn
Oklahoma State vs. TCU, 2:30 p.m. CT, ABC
The Pick: TCU -4
While the Cowboys’ win over Baylor was impressive initially, seeing the Bears lose to a team I consider to be the worst in the Big 12 in West Virginia altered my perception a bit. I have had a feeling for a while that Oklahoma State and Baylor weren’t the teams that would ultimately compete for the Big 12 title, and I expect that to be further exposed today.
The Cowboy defense is particularly exploitable, and it will face its toughest challenge of the season against a TCU team that is averaging 530 offensive yards per game and displaying incredible balance through the weeks between the run and the pass. And while TCU’s defense is certainly a weakness, it has faced better offenses than Oklahoma State and still given up less points and yards.
I expect the true contenders for the Big 12 will be TCU and Kansas State, and one of those teams will pick up a top-10 win this week. The other has a bye.
Score: TCU 41-28 Oklahoma State
Clemson vs. Florida State, 6:30 p.m. CT, ABC
The Pick: Clemson -3.5
A few weeks back, I predicted Florida State would lose its three matchups against the ACC elite. It has lost to Wake Forest and North Carolina State already, and now it faces the toughest of the three in No. 4 Clemson.
Not only did the Seminoles lose those matchups, but Clemson also managed to beat both of them despite each proving to be a challenge. The transitive property here may be a fluke, but I believe the Tigers take this one.
While I believe the Seminoles should have put up more points against LSU, they don’t have as much of an excuse for averaging 19 points in their matchups against the Wolfpack and Demon Deacons, especially with the latter having an exploitable defense. In big games, this team has failed to prove themselves, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday.
Score: Clemson 24-14 Florida State
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. CT, SECN
The Pick: Mississippi State -4
Kentucky was dealt a hard blow last weekend, losing its star quarterback to a foot injury as it suffered its second straight loss to South Carolina. It’s now in desperate need of a bounce back win here, with Tennessee and Georgia still remaining on its schedule.
Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening here.
Defense is the Wildcats’ strong suit, and so far, the Bulldogs have had little trouble against sure defenses since their loss to LSU. They put up 42 points against Texas A&M, a team that just held Alabama to 24 points, along with allowing 23 against Arkansas and nine against Miami. Their offensive efficiency coupled with their ability to take care of the ball and skill on the other side of the ball make them a dangerous team for anyone to face off against.
I’ve been high on Mississippi State since the beginning, calling it a dark horse contender in the SEC prior to its loss to LSU. In order for it to continue pushing that narrative, a win here is necessary.
Score: Mississippi State 31-21 Kentucky
Peter’s last week: 2-2-1
Peter’s Season: 5-9-1
Peter’s Picks:
Kansas vs. Oklahoma, 11 a.m. CT, ESPN2
The pick: Kansas +8.5
Last week taught us a lot about both of these teams.
Despite Kansas losing, the effort against TCU showed it can be competitive in the Big 12, even with Jalon Daniels going down with an injury. For Oklahoma, last week showed just how bad this team really is right now. It feels like that blowout win over Nebraska was years ago now after losing 49-0 to Texas.
Oklahoma is in a bad spot right now, and this game is another tough one for a team that’s already on the sharp decline. Kansas also enters this game in a tough spot, though. Coming off an emotional loss and playing without their starting quarterback, this will be a tough game for the Jayhawks as well.
I think this game will be close, and I think 8.5 is way too big of a spread in this game. I think Oklahoma will bounce back and get a win at home, but that number is a lot to cover against a good Kansas team.
Score: Oklahoma 28-24 Kansas
Minnesota vs. Illinois, 11 a.m. CT, Big 10 Network
The pick: Minnesota -6.5
This is an old-fashioned, grind-it-out, ugly Big 10 football game.
Both teams come into this game having relatively overachieved to this point in the season, but Illinois’ spot in the top-25 has been a bigger surprise. The Illini are 5-1 on the season so far, with their only loss coming in Week Two against Indiana. Coming off a win over Iowa, this is Illinois’ chance to be a serious team in the Big 10.
Minnesota comes into this game looking to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the season to Purdue. With the current log jam in the Big 10 West, this is a must win game for the Golden Gophers to put themselves back in position for a shot at making the Big 10 Championship.
On paper, this game favors Minnesota, and I think that will play out in the game. Coming off a loss, I think Minnesota plays with energy and overpowers Illinois in this game.
Score: Minnesota 23-13 Illinois
Alabama vs. Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
The pick: Tennessee +8
This feels like the game of the year for college football in 2022. It has been a long time since the third Saturday in October meant something, but now, in 2022, we finally have a big game.
Each team comes into this game coming a win, albeit two very different types of wins.
Tennessee obliterated LSU on the road while Alabama made a host of mistakes at home and barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Texas A&M.
This next sentence is going to sound crazy given the last 15 years, but I think it will be the story of the game.
I don’t think Alabama can keep up with Tennessee’s offense.
Tennessee has the best offense in the country and Alabama enters the game with questions still at wide receiver, and even bigger questions surround the health of starting quarterback Bryce Young. This just feels like the year for Tennessee, and I think the Volunteers will get it done at home.
Score: Tennessee 42-38 Alabama
North Carolina State vs. Syracuse, 2:30 p.m. CT, ACC Network
The pick: Syracuse -3
On the topic of overachieving teams, I don’t think too many people expected Syracuse to be undefeated in mid-October.
The Orange have impressed so far this season, but are still looking for that signature win to make them a serious contender in the ACC. This is their opportunity. At home against a ranked North Carolina State team, I expect both the fans and players to be up for this game, creating an entertaining environment.
For North Carolina State, this really is a must win game to stay in contention in the ACC Atlantic. The Wolfpack bounced back against Florida State after losing to Clemson, but a second conference loss would likely end their hopes at an ACC title.
I think this game is going to be entertaining, with both teams having a lot on the line. I think the home field advantage will play a part along with the extra rest from Syracuse’s bye week last week. Those factors make me lean Syracuse, and I’m taking them to win and just barely cover.
Score: Syracuse 31-27 North Carolina State
Arkansas vs. BYU, 2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN
The pick: BYU -1
Whoever put together Arkansas’ schedule didn’t do the team any favors.
After three consecutive losses against Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State, the Razorbacks come into this game battered and bruised. Fortunately, Arkansas will have its starting quarterback, KJ Jefferson, back this week, which makes a big difference in this game. Will it be enough, though?
BYU also comes into this game with negative momentum after a loss to Notre Dame last week. The Cougars do return home for this game, though, to a crowd that will definitely be up for this game. I still like BYU’s offense despite its two losses, and I think it will create issues for a struggling Arkansas defense.
Overall, I’m just not very high on Arkansas right now. Coming off three straight losses and now heading into another tough road environment, this matchup just doesn’t favor the Razorbacks. I think BYU wins, putting Arkansas in a tough spot at 3-4.
