As No. 25 LSU heads into its matinee matchup against No. 8 Tennessee on Saturday, one of the most exciting matchups of the early college football season, and without a doubt the most important LSU has encountered yet, there is plenty to be optimistic about. The Tigers have won four straight games and have seemingly improved with each passing week.
However, the Vols are undefeated at 4-0 and their offense, led by quarterback and Heisman candidate Hendon Hooker, looks unstoppable.
With games like this, matchups that promise to be close battles between two strong teams, it’s difficult to project a winner. However, based on what we’ve seen from these teams so far this year, we can predict what the ingredients might be for a Tiger upset. On the other hand, if Tennessee rolls to a win, there are some things we can expect to have happened.
LSU will lose if…
Its offense comes out slow, as it has all season.
It’s no secret that LSU has been a second-half team this year. On one hand, Brian Kelly’s halftime adjustments have been very effective, which is an endorsement of his ability as a coach. On the other hand, going down two scores in the first half is not a sustainable path to winning.
So far this year, in LSU’s three games against Power Five competition, the team has scored 17 offensive points in the first half. The defense has admittedly done an outstanding job of mitigating that damage, as the Tigers have gone into the half with deficits of only 4, 6 and 3 in their games against Florida State, Mississippi State and Auburn, respectively. With how LSU let the opposing teams dominate in the first half of each of those games, it has felt like the scores could’ve been a lot worse.
Still, at some point, LSU needs to learn how to take control of games from the jump and maintain success throughout. A bad start won’t fly against elite teams, and Tennessee is certainly one of the best. If the Tigers fail to find traction offensively to start out this game, expect the Volunteers and their fantastic offense to take advantage and pull away.
LSU will win if…
The improvement the run game showed against Auburn proves to be legitimate.
Factoring in quality of opponent, LSU’s run game had possibly its best game last week against Auburn after struggling out of the gate this season. Against Florida State, LSU had only 33 yards rushing if you take out Jayden Daniels’s contribution, most of which were scrambles and not designed runs. Last Saturday against Auburn, LSU had 131 non-quarterback rushing yards, and the success was shared: each of LSU’s three running backs (John Emery Jr., Noah Cain and Josh Williams) ran for four yards per carry or more.
The success has a lot to do with the offensive line finally starting to gel after some early season shifting, but it’s also clear that Emery is picking up steam after missing the entire 2021 season and the first two games of this year due to academic suspension. If this trend continues, LSU’s running game may be a force to be reckoned with.
Having the run game to rely on against Tennessee will keep the Volunteers honest. LSU certainly has a better chance of winning if it can establish strength in the trenches and not become one-dimensional.
LSU will lose if…
The miscues in the secondary that popped up against Auburn are repeated.
When LSU found itself down 17-0 to Auburn last Saturday, it was surprising not just because Auburn was supposed to be an easy win given the struggles the team has had all season, but also because of the fashion in which Auburn mounted that lead: by cutting up LSU’s pass defense.
LSU’s secondary has been reliable all year. Even in the loss to Florida State, it only gave up 260 yards through the air. That’s why it was so surprising when Auburn–a team with a quarterback starting his second career college game–threw for 337, including huge gains of 61 and 53, which were both during touchdown drives in the first half. LSU did tighten up, and only allowed 90 passing yards in the second half, but those huge mistakes allowed Auburn to grab momentum initially.
Kelly said the hiccups were due to issues with communication, which makes sense given that LSU was working with a lack of continuity in the secondary for that game. Joe Foucha was starting at safety for the first time this season after returning from suspension and safety Major Burns was out with an injury. However, LSU cannot expect to win against Tennessee if it makes glaring errors in pass defense like it did early last week.
LSU will win if…
Its pass-rush can get pressure on Hendon Hooker.
Since Hendon Hooker transferred to Tennessee before the 2021 season, he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He has thrown only three interceptions to 39 touchdowns in his 17 games as a Volunteer. Tennessee has lost six games with Hooker as its starting quarterback, and those games have a common thread: Tennessee faced more pressure than usual.
In Tennessee’s 11 wins since Hooker arrived, the team has allowed an average of 2.4 sacks. In its six losses, it’s allowed 3.2. All of Hooker’s three interceptions have come in losses, and he’s also had seven fumbles in those games. In his Tennessee career, Hooker has completed 72.4% of his passes in wins and 64.4% in losses. Simply put, he’s less effective when there’s pressure in his face, as is any quarterback.
LSU’s defensive front is in a position to take advantage of this. With projected first-round draft pick BJ Ojulari, as well as talented players in Ali Gaye, Jaquelin Roy, Mekhi Wingo, the Tigers have an elite starting front four. LSU also has Harold Perkins and Sai’vion Jones in reserve roles off the edge, who have each accounted for multiple sacks this year.
The Tigers have the personnel to put pressure on Hooker, and, if they do, it would go a long way toward slowing down Tennessee’s offense and contributing to a win.
LSU will lose if…
The team doesn’t get its offensive star players involved.
With how deep LSU’s skill position players are, it’s somewhat difficult to single out who the best are. However, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Nabers, Jack Bech and Emery are perhaps the most talented and have the best track record of producing at a high level.
Despite being considered one of the best receivers in the country, Boutte has not gone over five receptions or 45 yards this year, which has caused some to speculate about his happiness with the program. Though Boutte has shut down these rumors, it’s clear that he could be utilized more.
Not getting these players involved has been an issue all year to a degree, but it was at its worst against Auburn. Boutte only received one target, though he was absorbing most of the defense’s attention, Nabers had only two receptions and Bech came up with just one. Emery had a good game with 42 yards on the ground and a crucial 38-yard reception, but he only had two carries in the first half before catching fire towards the end of the game.
Yes, LSU has a lot of mouths to feed, but the easiest path to winning is always to get the ball in the hands of your best players. If LSU doesn’t do that, its offense may struggle against Tennessee.
