LSU is coming off two disappointing seasons in which the Tigers amassed an 11-11 regular season record and lost to Kansas State in the Texas Bowl last season. That leaves Brian Kelly with lots of room for improvement entering his first season with the program.  

While there are a few questionable position groups, like the offensive line and linebacker core, this is a more established group of players than analysts give them credit for. Still, bumps in the road are expected and it’s difficult to gauge how this group will perform without seeing them in action.  

Well, not for a lack of trying anyway. Here are my predictions for each of LSU’s matchups during the 2022-23 football season. 

Florida State (September 4) 

Most people are writing the Seminoles off as an easy opening victory for the Tigers, and while I understand where they are coming from. I don’t think it will be as easy as fans are hoping it will be. 

Still, Florida State hasn’t beaten an SEC opponent since 2017, and Brian Kelly hasn’t lost an opening game since 2016. While the Seminoles finished last season relatively strong, they still lost to a fallen Florida team to finish it out.  

Florida State will have some long runs and won’t get blown out, but Brian Kelly will keep his opening game win streak alive. 

Result: LSU 28, Florida State 20 

(1-0) 

Southern (September 10) 

A great event for the city of Baton Rouge, but don’t expect much from the game itself. 

Result: LSU 56, Southern 10 

(2-0) 

Mississippi State (September 17) 

Through two seasons, Mike Leach has taken a team that lost seven games in 2020 and quickly transformed them into a team capable of taking down quality SEC opponents, beating Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M last season. 

Mississippi State returns eight starters on each side of the ball and considering how well the Bulldogs did last season, improvement would not be a surprise.  

While they sport an efficient offense that will likely improve, they also have a clear weakness: their pass defense. 

They ranked in the bottom half of the country in opponent passing yards per game and went 2-5 against FBS teams ranked above No. 36 in passing yards per game last season. 

On the other hand, I expect LSU’s pass rush and secondary to do enough to get the job done..

Result: LSU 38 Mississippi 27 

(3-0, 1-0 SEC) 

New Mexico (September 24) 

New Mexico has not been a prominent team in the Mountain West since 2016 and head coach Danny Gonzales doesn’t seem to have them on the path to getting back to that.  

Result: LSU 51 New Mexico 14 

(4-0, 1-0 SEC) 

Auburn (October 1) 

Auburn decided to fire then head coach Gus Malzahn after finishing the 2020 regular season 6-4, opting to replace him with Bryan Harsin from Boise State. While that seemed like a strong decision then, it’s safe to say his debut with the program wasn’t stellar.

Not only did the team finish with its worst record since 2012, Auburn also dropped in recruiting, going from No. 8 in 2020 to No. 21 in 2022, according to 247sports. 

On top of that, Auburn lost Bo Nix to the transfer portal and multiple key defensive starters to the NFL Draft, with Nix being the primary reason they were able to defeat LSU last season. While LSU suffered identical losses, they have done a better job at filling the holes those who departed left behind.  

Therefore, LSU defeats Auburn for the first time since 2019.

Result: LSU 33 Auburn 17 

(5-0, 2-0 SEC) 

Tennessee (October 8) 

The Volunteers have not beaten LSU since 2005. Unfortunately for Tiger fans, that streak dies here.  

This is a game that I went back-and-forth on, and I expect this game to be reflective of that. 

While LSU’s secondary will be warmed up at this point, there aren’t many defenses in the conference that can keep up with their quarterback, Hendon Hooker. But the Volunteer defense is bound to surrender a considerable number of points as well, with that being a clear weakness. 

The key here will be turnovers. Tennessee wasn’t amazing at causing turnovers, but the Volunteers were proficient at taking care of the ball with Hooker at the helm while LSU… not so much. One or two turnovers will be the deciding factor here. 

Result: Tennessee 41 LSU 38 

(5-1, 2-1 SEC) 

Florida (October 15) 

While Billy Napier is a solid head coach and did a fantastic job of establishing UL-Lafayette as a prominent Group of 5 team, I feel like it’s going to take him a year or two to adjust to SEC Play.  

Florida’s projected starting quarterback, Anthony Richardson, did a number on the Tigers last season, but that was against a secondary operating on crutches. He has potential, but this will not be the game that gets displayed. 

Florida is coming off a rough end to the Dan Mullen era and it’s going to take time for the Gators to return to prominence.  

Result: LSU 35 Florida 16 

(6-1, 3-1 SEC) 

Ole Miss (October 22) 

While former starting quarterback Matt Corral is no longer a part of the team, I do not expect that to noticeably hamper Ole Miss’s offensive efficiency. The Rebels don’t sport players competing for the starting job that can contend with Corral’s experience, but they do have talented quarterbacks that could quickly develop under Lane Kiffin.   

I expect the role to be granted to USC transfer Jaxson Dart, though sophomore Luke Altmeyer sports similar potential. Dart started the last few games for USC last season, where he looked impressive, especially in his last two games. 

The Rebels have the second-best transfer portal class in the country entering the season according to 247sports. However, despite that onslaught of added talent and experience, I believe it’ll take them time to reach their full potential, especially with their lack of experience at quarterback and competition entering the matchup.

 But come 2023, Ole Miss will be a dark horse candidate for the SEC title.

Result: LSU 34 Ole Miss 26 

(7-1, 4-1 SEC) 

Alabama (November 5) 

This is where LSU’s runs tend to come to an end, and that won’t change here.  

While the Tigers had the benefit of being massive underdogs entering last season’s matchup, I don’t feel like that will be the case here. At this point, LSU sports a 7-1 record and is likely in or near the top-10. 

Nick Saban will have his team prepared for war and without the element of surprise, LSU doesn’t quite match up with them here. Alabama will start fast, putting up 10-14 unanswered points, and the Tigers will struggle to keep up from there.

Result: Alabama 31 LSU 20 

(7-2, 4-2 SEC) 

Arkansas (November 12) 

Just like last season, I expect this to be a great game and I would not be surprised if it went into overtime.  

Head Coach Sam Pittman has quickly reinvigorated this team and based on its returning experience and the additions  made through the transfer portal, I expect Arkansas to improve on its 9-4 campaign from 2021. I don’t think the Razorbacks take down Alabama, but I do think they compete for the second spot in the SEC West.  

Therefore, the Razorbacks take this one. 

Result: Arkansas 27 LSU 24 

(7-3, 4-3 SEC) 

UAB (November 19) 

A brief break from conference play provides the Tigers with a matchup against one of the best Group of Five teams from last season. Despite that title, the Blazers have gone 0-4 against SEC opponents since their reinstatement in 2017, getting outscored 163-41 in those matchups. 

I doubt that changes here.  

Result: LSU 37 UAB 13 

(8-3, 4-3 SEC) 

Texas A&M (November 26) 

LSU is 8-2 against the Aggies since they joined the conference in 2012, but they are 2-2 in the matchup since Jimbo Fisher took over. 

This will mark the first time these teams have been evenly matched since 2018, each sporting 8-3 records with the third spot in the conference on the line. And just like in 2018, it goes the way of the 12th man. 

On top of having to play in College Station, LSU won’t have much momentum after losing to Alabama and Arkansas. Texas A&M will be coming off a stretch where they either went 4-1 or 5-0 and I believe the Aggies will carry that momentum into this game and win.  

This is going to be a fun one, especially if former LSU quarterback Max Johnson starts for the Aggies. 

Result: Texas A&M 28 LSU 25 

(8-4, 4-4 SEC) 

Two-Game Improvement and the potential for more 

Predicting these matchups without seeing any of these teams play is difficult. While I firmly believe this team will go 8-4, those wins and losses can realistically come from anywhere in conference play. 

With a stacked receiving room, solid quarterback situation, proven pass rushers and a secondary that features both talent and experience, it is difficult to find a ceiling for this team, but 9-3, and even 10-2, is attainable. However, having a completely new coaching staff and playing in the SEC gives them a floor of 7-5. 

Don’t be surprised if this team makes a run, and don’t be surprised if everything goes wrong. This is LSU football, where both of those things happen from time to time.