While Week 0 was limiting when it came to having quality football to watch, Week 1 poses a different problem: too much to watch at once. I hope you have extra screens sitting around because you’re going to need them.
We’ve already witnessed great action this week, with Thursday night’s games each exceeding expectations and making us remember why we missed college football. I suspect Saturday will be more of the same.
With that being said, let’s get into the article.
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 2-3
Last week didn’t go amazingly, and while I can partially blame it on being Week 0, there was one loss that I probably should have seen coming.
Nebraska -12 vs. Northwestern L
So, Scott Frost, huh?
With Nebraska’s last victory coming in a blowout over, wouldn’t you know, Northwestern, I was expecting much of the same last Saturday. The Cornhuskers had maintained a large portion of their defense from last season, a defense that played well and I expected to have developed further, but this was just simply not the case.
Their defense put on a terrible performance. They made Ryan Hilinski, who hadn’t been great in previous seasons, look elite, on top of giving up over 500 yards of offense.
However, while that’s certainly substantial, the moment that was talked about the most from this game occurred nearing the middle of the third quarter.
Up eleven and having just scored a touchdown, Frost tried pulling a fast one on the Wildcats, going for a surprise onside kick with 24 minutes left in the game. Unlike the Saints in the 2009 Super Bowl, they were unsuccessful.
While it would have been amazing if they were able to obtain it, they risked giving up good field position and the momentum. It’s safe to say the risk wasn’t worth it, as Northwestern would go on to score fourteen unanswered points while the Cornhusker offense failed to do much of anything after that moment.
In a loss that will most definitely be considered in determining whether or not Nebraska needs to fire Frost, his poor decision making took center stage.
Wyoming vs. Illinois -14 W
This game went exactly how I expected it to, and then some.
Wyoming’s questionable situation at quarterback turned into a nightmare, as Utah State transfer Andrew Peasley could not hit the side of a barn last Saturday. He completed just five passes for thirty yards, which made the Cowboy offense woefully one-dimensional, crushing most chances they had at obtaining points.
Meanwhile, Tommy DeVito had a solid passing game for Illinois, complementing what was an incredible day of running the ball for the Fighting Illini.
As a team, they rushed for 260 yards on six yards per carry, with lead back Chase Brown doing most of the heavy lifting. The junior eclipses 150 yards on the ground, averaging nearly eight yards per carry, which is insane to think about.
It’s too early to tell, but I could see Illinois causing some problems in the Big Ten this season.
Charlotte vs. Florida Atlantic -7 W
I might have gotten this one right, but I didn’t predict the blowout that was to come.
After a mostly balanced first quarter, the Owls scored 26 unanswered points, with a costly pick six at the end of the first half being what ultimately crushed the 49ers’ momentum. Charlotte had success throwing the ball at times, but Florida Atlantic suffocated their rush attack, holding them to just 2.7 yards per carry.
What killed them the most, though, was third down conversions and penalties. They converted on just two and surrendered 85 yards from penalties. Florida Atlantic played a disciplined, efficient game until the bell sounded, and Charlotte did not.
North Texas vs. UTEP +1.5 L
At this point in the day, my picks were looking great. UTEP and North Texas were locked in a tight one through the first half, and Hawai’i started off their matchup against Vanderbilt swinging.
But my hope for a 4-1 first day would not last long.
All four of UTEP’s second half drives made it into North Texas territory, resulting in a grand total of…
Zero points.
The Miners turned the ball over on downs three times in the second half, and on the one they didn’t, they fumbled the ball. Meanwhile, the Mean Green put together a great opening drive in the second half before taking advantage of the good field position UTEP provided them with.
They scored seventeen unanswered points, which was more than enough to put the Miners away. Despite being an even game on paper, with the teams’ yardage, first downs and turnovers all being practically identical, the scoreboard indicated otherwise.
Vanderbilt vs. Hawai’i +9 L
You know what I said about Hawai’i coming out swinging? Well, that lasted basically one drive.
Hawai’i is amidst a transitional phase, with their coaching staff and a large part of the roster departing. That was made abundantly clear on Saturday.
After putting together a modest eleven point lead heading into halftime off a 21-3 run, Vanderbilt had what could have been their best third quarter performance in their program’s history. 35 points later, and this game was over early.
They attributed rushing numbers that would make triple-option teams jealous, finishing the day with over 400 yards on nine yards per carry and five touchdowns in the category.
I never thought I would say it, but I regret underestimating the Commodores.
This week’s picks:
North Carolina vs. Appalachian
State, 11:00 AM CT, CBSSN
The Pick: Appalachian State -1.5
Now, this is a fun start to the day.
Despite consistently pulling in considerable talent under Mack Brown, with the exception of 2020, they haven’t been able to put the pieces together to form an ACC contender. They started last season ranked No. 10 and proceeded to throw that away immediately before consistently proving they didn’t deserve to be ranked.
This all came despite having NFL talent at the quarterback position in Sam Howell, with the defense and offensive line stagnating what could have been a successful season for the program.
They started this season off fine, beating Florida A&M by 32 points, but in that game, potential cracks were shown. The Tar Heel secondary gave up nearly 300 yards through the air against a quarterback making his first start with an FCS school.
Imagine what six-year senior Chase Brice will do to it.
Appalachian State has consistently shown that they can compete with Power 5 teams, with just two of their matchups against them since 2016 being multiple-score losses. However, they have only one of seven, with that single victory coming North Carolina itself.
With that being said, I feel like this is a situation where Appalachian State has the edge. North Carolina’s suspect secondary should prove to be beneficial for the Mountaineer offense, and while Appalachian State lost some man power on the defensive side of the ball, I expect that their trusted and consistent coaching staff will have an answer for that.
Expect lots of fireworks on the offensive side of the ball.
Score: Appalachian State 44 North Carolina 41
Georgia vs. Oregon, 2:30 PM CT, ABC
The Pick: Georgia -16
Last time I went against Georgia on a point spread over fifteen points, I claimed their opponent could be a dark horse for the college football playoff. The Bulldogs proceeded to beat that team by 37 points.
I won’t make the same mistake twice.
While I expect Dan Lanning to be a solid head coach for the Oregon football program, his first game as a college football head coach is a rough one. He may have an advantage having been the Bulldogs’ defensive coordinator for the past few seasons, but I don’t expect that to be relevant.
Georgia may have lost a huge piece of their legendary defense from last season, but they still possess incredible pieces from it and have done a great job reloading everywhere else. They are also expected to be facing a quarterback they’ve had endless success against, as they hold a 3-0 record against projected Oregon starting quarterback Bo Nix. Auburn averaged ten points in those contests, so in the spirit of consistency…
Score: Georgia 37 Oregon 10
Arkansas vs. Cincinnati, 2:30 PM CT,
ESPN
The Pick: Arkansas -6.5
This isn’t as much of a gripe on Cincinnati as it is praise for Arkansas. I have high expectations for this team, and I believe they’ll start the season off on fire.
The Bearcats lost noteworthy talent on both sides of the ball, including their biggest contributors on offense in Desmond Ridder, Jerome Ford and Alec Pierce, along with most of what made their defense so dominant last season.
Neither of their starting quarterback candidates in Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant and sophomore Evan Prater have had experience against an SEC defense and I expect that to cause problems, especially early in the game while they’re trying to adjust.
Meanwhile, Arkansas returns loads of contributors, including their starting quarterback and running back duo, from last season. Their offense in 2021 was one of the best in the country at running the ball, on top of their quarterback, KJ Jefferson being an incredibly efficient passer, with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21-to-4 and 67% completion percentage in his first season as a starter.
That’s just too much for a largely new team to handle.
Score: Arkansas 34 Cincinnati 21
Georgia State vs. South Carolina,
6:30 PM CT, ESPN3
The Pick: Georgia State +12.5
Georgia State is a hard team to analyze.
They had a rough start to the season last year, losing to Army and North Carolina by a combined 75 points and dropping four of their first five games. But of those four losses, three came without Darren Grainger for at least a large portion of the game, and one was a ten-point loss to Auburn.
With Grainger at the helm, the Panthers look like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt, and he should improve on what was a solid debut season in the FBS.
The Georgia State offense sported one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the Group of 5 last season, with Grainger being a large part of that success. They ranked near the top of the country in rushing yards and with this fact being relevant in my eyes, you can probably guess what the Gamecock defense’s biggest flaw last season was.
While the Panther defense struggled against the pass last season, Spencer Rattler has arguably had problems against worse. I still expect him to be able to score a solid amount of points throughout the game, but I also believe he’ll give them enough opportunities to remain in it.
I don’t expect them to win this one, but they’ll do enough to scare the SCAR fanbase.
Score: South Carolina 38 Georgia State 26
Boise State vs. Oregon State, 9:30
PM CT, ESPN
The Pick: Boise State +2.5
PAC-12/Mountain West after dark is starting off right with this one.
Boise State returns an absurd 15 starters from last season, a season in which they had some intriguing highs despite finishing 7-5. The Broncos nearly defeated a playoff contender in Oklahoma State and took down No. 10 BYU, but did struggle a bit against some of the better teams in the Mountain West.
Still, this team sports considerable potential and a ton of experience, and I expect that to pay off here.
Oregon State’s last matchup of 2021 came against another Mountain West team in Utah State, where the Beavers were held to just 13 points and struggled immensely throughout. I’m sure they won’t underestimate Boise State, but I don’t expect that to help them here.
They do return a good amount of talent, but that talent includes a secondary that gave up nearly 260 passing yards per game against FBS opponents last season. You can’t do that against Hank Bachmeier, who enters his last season with the Broncos after contributing over 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns in the previous one.
This will still be a close game, but I feel like Boise State has the edge.
