Week 4 holds a solid slate, with simply too many good games to fit in ten picks. Many ranked teams are getting their first true tests, including Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, USC and Ole… wait that’s next week. But, before we get into it…
Henry’s Last Week: 3-2
Henry’s Season: 10-10
BYU vs. Oregon (-3.5) W
Kansas (+8.5) vs. Houston W
Texas Tech (+10) vs. NC State L
UTSA (+12.5) vs. Texas L
Miami vs. Texas A&M (-6.5)W
I owe Oregon a thank you for proving my gut right and NC State an apology for severely underestimating them.
On one end, I had a feeling that BYU was going to find a way to blow its championship aspirations, they always do after all. While I expected the loss to be more the Cougars’ fault than anything, the Ducks came out and blew everyone’s expectations out of the water.
Bo Nix looked competent at quarterback and the defense that gave up 49 points to Georgia stuffed the BYU offense for most of the game.
Talk about a bounce back, but how good does that make the Bulldogs? How bad does that make Baylor?
On the other end, I was under the impression that the stellar NC State defense that everyone was talking about was overrated and called them out for it. The Wolfpack responded by holding Texas Tech to 14 points and forcing four turnovers. Doesn’t sound like a bad defensive performance to me.
What was a bad defensive performance was Houston’s against Kansas. After going down 14-0 in the first quarter, the Jayhawks outscored the Cougars 48-16, with quarterback Jalon Daniels continuing to ball out and Houston falling to 0-2 against its next conference. Its players were focused on the wrong fight if you ask me. Giving up 6.5 yards per carry won’t do your team many favors either.
If you enjoy watching offensive success like that, you probably cut the Miami vs. Texas A&M game off early. While Devon Achane continued to carry the Aggie offense and provided them with some semblance of success, they didn’t do much outside of that (he accounted for 130 of the team’s 274 offensive yards).
Miami had a surprising amount of success on the ground, but everything else was hard to watch. The Hurricanes cannot score in the red zone, and Tylen van Dyke’s first bout with a strong defense proved to be more than tough here.
Get him another ACC defense to play, his Heisman race needs it.
Henry’s picks:
Florida vs. Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
The Pick: Tennessee -10.5
I don’t want to jump the gun too hard on the “Florida is bad” and “Tennessee is good” narratives, but with what’s been presented, it’s difficult to see the Gators keeping this thing close, especially playing on the road in Knoxville.
Since its first game against Utah, Anthony Richardson has been the worst quarterback in the SEC and that is not an exaggeration. He has combined for less than 300 yards, four interceptions and zero touchdowns in his last two performances against Kentucky and… USF.
That’s total yards by the way; he hasn’t been an effective rusher since then either. While it’s hard to imagine that opening performance being a flash in the pan…
Look, he’ll have a better performance against an iffy Tennessee secondary (maybe), but he won’t be able to keep up with Hendon Hooker and the Volunteer offense. Not to say he won’t get there eventually, he definitely has potential, but he’s not there yet.
Look for the Volunteers to push to flip this matchup’s score from last year, or at least come close.
Score: Tennessee 34 Florida 17
Minnesota vs. Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. CT, BTN
The Pick: Minnesota -3
It’s hard to gauge how good Minnesota is due to its lack of competition but hey, they have blown out inferior opponents just as well as Michigan has. All jokes aside, the Golden Gophers are largely underrated.
Three seasons removed from their 11-2 campaign in 2019, this team could be looking to reestablish that success. It has maintained key pieces in long-time starting quarterback Tanner Morgan and dynamic running back Mohamed Ibrahim, and after a shaky 2020, bounced back by finishing with nine wins in 2021. Those wins included matchups against No. 14 Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland, which all came without Ibrahim.
Now, Ibrahim is back and just put up 200 rushing yards against Colorado. Coming off a successful season and having their star back, I expect the Golden Gophers to run away with this one and potentially, a Big Ten West title.
Score: Minnesota 31 Michigan State 17
Marshall vs. Troy, 6:00 p.m. CT, NFL NETWORK
The Pick: Troy +3
After what Troy went through against Appalachian State last weekend, I feel like it’s due for a significant win. For anyone unfamiliar, their dreams of securing a huge dub to begin conference play were dashed by means of an absurd, last-second hail mary.
With their previous opponent being one of the projected favorites to win the conference, the fact the Trojans were in that position to begin with says something. They are much improved from a disappointing, bowless 2021 campaign, nearly defeating the Mountaineers after losing to them by 38 last season.
Meanwhile, it seems like Marshall’s luck has run out, losing to Bowling Green after pulling off one of the more shocking upsets of the season in Week 2 over Notre Dame. After winning by the turnover in Week 2, the Thundering Herd lost by it in Week 3, committing three and forcing zero against the Falcons.
On top of that, the pass defense that won them the game over the Irish waned in Week 2, allowing Bowling Green to get back into the game after going up 14-0 early in the first.
Troy uses an air raid offense, which proved to be effective against the Mountaineers in Week 3. I expect that to be enough to earn the Trojans their first FBS win of the season.
Score: Troy 35 Marshall 34
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma, 7:00 p.m. CT, FOX
The Pick: Kansas State +12.5
Kansas State’s loss to Tulane drew questions about its offense, particularly when it came to converting on third and fourth down. It went an abysmal 2-for-15 on third downs and 1-of-5 on fourth. However, its defense continued to impress and kept the team in the game despite the offense scoring just 10 points.
I don’t expect the Wildcats to pull off the upset here, but this is Oklahoma’s first bout against a considerable defense and I expect them to struggle to score, at least early on in the game. Kansas State is giving up less than 10 points and 150 passing yards per game, on top of forcing a combined six turnovers in its last two bouts against Missouri and Tulane.
This is a defense that was praised on its success from last season and hyped as being much better heading into Week 1. Though Oklahoma’s offense is strong on paper, it has had its struggles early on. It took nearly a full half for the Sooners to score against Kent State, temporarily putting that game on upset watch before they finally got things together in the third quarter.
They’ve still dominated every opponent they’ve come across, and I don’t expect them to lose here. But don’t be surprised if it takes some time for them to break away.
Score: Oklahoma 27 Kansas State 17
Stanford vs. Washington, 9:30 p.m. CT, FS1
The Pick: Washington -13.5
The Huskies are riding a huge wave of momentum after dominating No. 11 Michigan State last week, and unlike the Thundering Herd, I expect that momentum, plus their overall skill, to carry them to a decisive victory over Stanford.
While Stanford only lost to USC by 13, two garbage-time touchdowns made that game appear closer than it was. The Cardinal have slowly faded from relevance over the past five years, finishing the 2021 season as the worst team in the PAC-12 North.
Washington found themselves in a similar position last season, but its bounce back has been much more evident early on.
Michael Penix Jr has reemerged as the skilled, efficient quarterback that he appeared to be becoming at Indiana. Coupled with a pair of young, effective receivers in freshman Ja’Lynn Polk and sophomore Jalen McMillan, a balanced rushing attack and a stout defense, Penix could propel Washington to relevance within the PAC-12 for the first time since Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin departed in 2018.
While Stanford’s outlook is difficult to predict, I doubt it keeps things close here. Washington will have to do a better job at closing out games for me to win this one though.
Score: Washington 39 Stanford 24
Peter’s Last Week: 2-3
Peter’s Season: 3-7
Peter’s Picks:
Missouri vs. Auburn, 11 a.m. CT, ESPN
The Pick: Missouri +7
This is going to be an ugly one. Like, really ugly.
An argument can be made that Missouri and Auburn are the two worst teams in the SEC right now. Both teams are 2-1, and both have two wins over overmatched competition and a blowout loss against a Power Five team. On paper, Auburn seems like the better team, but will be without both TJ Finley and Zach Calzada at quarterback.
This leaves Head Coach Brian Harsin with no choice but to start Oregon transfer Robby Ashford, who has seen sporadic playing time already this season. This game will feature little offense, with neither team having much of an offensive identity. Earlier this week, I had Missouri pulling off the upset and winning outright, but the more I’ve thought about it, I think Auburn has enough to scrape a win at home.
I predict Auburn to win a low-scoring, slow-paced football game and Harsin will hold onto his job for at least another week.
Score: Auburn 13-10 Missouri
James Madison vs. Appalachian State, 2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN+
The Pick: James Madison +7
This is a rather bold one, but I think it makes sense. James Madison is one of the most underrated teams in the Group of Five right now. The competition hasn’t been great as of yet, but the Dukes dominated each of their first two opponents, outscoring Norfolk State and Middle Tennessee State by a combined score of 107-14.
Appalachian State looked vulnerable last week, barely scraping a 32-28 win over Troy on a last-second Hail Mary. That was a grueling game both physically and emotionally, and I think that will show this week. Appalachian State is the better team on paper and will still probably win this game, but I expect another close one.
Appalachian State 34-31 James Madison
Iowa vs. Rutgers, 6 p.m. CT, FS1
The Pick: Rutgers +8
The over/under for this game is set at 34, and even that seems high.
Iowa’s lack of offense so far this season has been no secret. The Hawkeyes have scored just 41 points through three games, averaging a putrid 13.7 points per game. However, they are also only allowing 4.3 points per game which is an even more ridiculous stat. I expect that defense to be tested this week against Rutgers.
Rutgers enters this game 3-0, and with this game being at home for the Scarlet Knights, there is serious upset potential here. Rutgers is a run-first team offensively, averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. Defensively, there are few teams better than Rutgers at stopping the run with the Scarlet Knights only allowing 32.3 rushing yards per game.
This is a huge game for a Rutgers program on the ascent, and I think the environment will be great. This will be a low-scoring, hard-nosed football game, and I think Rutgers will indeed pull out the upset and win outright.
Score: Rutgers 14-13 Iowa
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, 6 p.m. CT, ESPN
The Pick: Texas A&M -2
This was a game I went back and forth on for a while. This is always a game that is close and filled with drama, and I don’t think that will change this year.
Both teams come into this game with questions and both are looking to leave this game in a position to contend in the SEC West. Texas A&M is coming off a solid win over a ranked Miami team, but still have questions on offense. Arkansas has taken care of business in all three of its games, but struggled against Missouri State last week and have statistically the worst pass defense in the country.
Ultimately I think this game will be decided on defense, and Texas A&M has a major advantage there. The Aggies’ defense has yet to allow more than 17 points in a game this season, and still hasn’t quite played to its full potential yet. Max Johnson will exploit the Arkansas secondary enough to put Texas A&M over the top in what I think will be an entertaining game.
Score: Texas A&M 31-24 Arkansas
USC vs. Oregon State, 8:30 p.m. CT, PAC 12 Network
The Pick: USC -6
Throughout the week, this game has been talked up as one with major upset possibilities. While it’s never easy to go on the road, and Oregon State has started 3-0, I think USC is just too much for the Beavers. Caleb Williams has started the season how many expected and USC’s offense as a whole is averaging 520 yards per game through three games.
Oregon State will pose a challenge though. The Beavers are 3-0 and averaging over 200 rushing yards per game, an area where USC’s defense has been vulnerable. This game will be close for a while, but I think USC’s talent pulls away in the end.
