Another weekend of college football means the inevitable; ten more picks from The Reveille. Once again, our ‘Weekly Pick ‘Em’ features Peter Rauterkus and yours truly.
I’m excited to say I finally put up a winning record, and could make my overall record a winning one as well with another solid performance this week. Short intros aside, let’s get into what happened last week.
Henry’s Last Week: 3-2
Henry’s Season: 7-8
Missouri +7.5 vs. Kansas State L
Did I underestimate Kansas State? Or did I overestimate Missouri? We’ll go with both for now.
While Adrian Martinez barely surpassed 100 passing yards, threw zero touchdowns and completed less than 50% of his passes, Deuce Vaughn kept the Wildcat offense consistently scoring, rushing for 145 yards and two touchdowns. But there are eleven more contributors that should get a good amount of the credit.
The defense kept Missouri completely out of the game, holding the Tigers to 222 yards and forcing four turnovers, all interceptions that took place in the third quarter while Missouri was desperately trying to get back into the game. They never got close, not managing to score in the double digits until the last play of the game.
Kansas State is a legitimate dark horse in the Big 12, especially with Baylor losing to BYU last Saturday. I overanalyzed their matchup with South Dakota and largely underestimated them. They just need to get things going in the passing game.
Missouri? Not so much. They’ll be lucky to place ahead of Vanderbilt in the SEC East this season, unless the Wildcats are playoff contenders…
Tennessee -6 vs. Pittsburgh W
It’s still too early to outright state it, but Tennessee might be the real deal.
Even with Pitt stuffing their rushing attack for the most part, the Volunteer passing attack was on fire. After starting the game down 10-0, Hendon Hooker led three straight touchdown drives to steal the momentum heading into the half. The defense also played a role in that, forcing a fumble right before the half ended and giving the Vols another three points.
That doesn’t mean this wasn’t a nail-biter, as those three points proved to come in handy when the game went into overtime. In a situation where I needed Tennessee to win by seven points, the perfect scenario would give me the victory.
In the first overtime period, Tennessee got the ball first, quickly scored a touchdown and kept the opposing offense out of the endzone, securing their first ranked win of the season and allowing me to cover the spread. It’s hard to say how good their opponent truly is, with their only win being against West Virginia, a team who lost to Kansas on Saturday.
But for now, impressive win for the Volunteers.
Iowa State +3.5 vs. Iowa W
This game was about as ugly as we expected, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t entertaining.
Surprisingly, Iowa matched their previous week’s output within three minutes, with Leshon Williams running the ball in from nine yards out. That was the Hawkeyes longest run of the game and was only made possible because of a blocked punt that placed this in the red zone.
Iowa would get a chance to surpass it in the third after getting their hands on another Iowa State punt, but the Hawkeyes would fumble on the goal line. The next drive would be the climax of the game.
The Cyclones hadn’t fared much better than the Hawkeyes offensively, entering the fourth quarter with just three points on a 3rd & 3 from the ISU 33 (that last part is not relevant, just thought it was funny). Little did they know they were in the midst of a game-winning drive, an insane one at that.
In nearly twelve minutes of playtime, Iowa State drove the ball 99 yards down the field on 21 plays. Freshman Hunter Dekkers may have struggled throughout against the stout Hawkeye defense, but on this drive, he was almost perfect, completing six of seven passes for 44 yards and a touchdown.
I imagine Iowa currently has some of the most frustrated fans in the entire country, maybe trailing Notre Dame. Their defense is legitimate, but their offense could have them finishing with a losing record.
Northern Illinois +6.5 vs. Tulsa W
After watching Northern Illinois fall a few yards short of upsetting Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl last season, I had a feeling it could keep up with almost anyone in the Group of Five this year, especially with most of their starters returning. Against a challenging offensively-potent opponent in Tulsa, though, it seemed like I was being proved wrong.
The Huskies were down 24-7 at the half and Davis Brin was consistently picking the NIU defense apart through the air. But then, Northern Illinois got things together.
QB Rocky Lombardi scored three touchdowns in the second half (2 pass, 1 rush), even temporarily giving his team the lead with six minutes to go in the game. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to finish the job, but still got me a win, ending my night game losing streak at four.
Mississippi State vs. Arizona +10.5 L
Perhaps I jumped the gun a bit when I claimed Arizona Football was back, or maybe Mississippi State is just that good. While the Bulldogs have yet to play a ranked team, many believe they should have been ranked over No. 25 Oregon in the most recent polls, and I can see why.
The key against the Wildcats was how they performed in the fourth quarter. Arizona entered the fourth only being down by one score, and left it being down three. How did that happen you might ask?
Third and fourth down defense. The Bulldogs did a great job with this throughout the game but it was especially apparent in the fourth, where it matters most. The Wildcats went for it three times in the last period and failed on all three occasions. They ultimately finished the game converting just 28.5% of their third downs and 25% of their fourth downs.
Will Rogers didn’t look so bad himself, with his 80% completion rate and two fourth quarter touchdowns (four total). With a win against the Tigers on Saturday, they should finally pop up in the rankings, especially when Oregon loses.
Now, let’s get into these picks.
Henry’s Picks:
BYU vs. Oregon, 2:30 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: Oregon -3.5
Oregon picked up their 20th straight win at home with a 70-14 rout of Eastern Washington, and I suspect they’ll pick up their 21st here. I don’t know how they’ll manage with Bo Nix facing a competent defense, but they’ll find a way.
There’s hype in BYU, and when there’s hype in BYU, it never lasts. Last season they cracked the top-ten and proceeded to immediately lose to Boise State. I don’t discount the Baylor win, or Oregon’s blowout loss to Georgia, but something is telling me to be wary.
While Nix was awful against the Bulldogs, I suspect that almost every quarterback in the nation will have a rough time. The Ducks scored touchdowns on eight straight possessions against Eastern Washington, and while that may not be too significant considering the opponent, it’s worth noting in my opinion.
Score: Oregon 27 BYU 21
Kansas vs. Houston, 3:00 PM CT,
ESPNU
The Pick: Kansas +8.5
I had a similar game last weekend in Mississippi State vs. Arizona, where I expected the Wildcats to surprise everyone. They had one great game in their opener against San Diego State and I jumped the gun. I learned a valuable lesson from that game.
Now, is Kansas back?
The Jayhawks have been the joke of the Big 12 conference since Mark Mangino got fired back in 2009 after going 5-7. In the twelve seasons that followed his firing, they have not surpassed three wins a single time. As it stands now, they have two, and one of those came against a conference opponent in West Virginia.
Towards the end of Lance Leipold’s debut season with the program, things began to click. They upset Texas in overtime before suffering close losses to TCU and West Virginia to close out the season. That uptick in production correlated perfectly with Jalon Daniels attaining the starting job at quarterback.
Compared to what his predecessor did, Daniels was miles ahead from the get-go, contributing ten total touchdowns in three and a half games last season before doing much of the same to start in 2022. He could be the one who finally guides the Jayhawks out of obscurity.
Their secondary will struggle against Houston’s passing attack, but they’ll do what they need to do to not only keep up, but earn the victory.
Score: Kansas 46 Houston 45
Texas Tech vs. NC State, 6:00 PM CT,
ESPN2
The Pick: Texas Tech +10
NC State is not that good. They’re returning a team that beat one top-ten opponent in a Clemson team that was going to fall out of the rankings. That Clemson team eventually lost all of its remaining big games, only beating North Carolina after the Tar Heels gave the game away.
I don’t want to see the Wolfpack in the top-25 after next week, and I suspect Texas Tech will get the job done there. Their last three games include a beatdown of Mississippi State (an impressive win that actually deserves praise), a blowout of Murray State and a win over a top-25 opponent in Houston.
The Wolfpack should already have a loss on their resume after what happened against East Carolina. Anyways, next.
Score: Texas Tech 35 NC State 24
UTSA vs.Texas, 7:00 PM CT, 7:00 PM
CT,
The Pick: UTSA +12.5
After an impressive 11-2 campaign in 2021, scrutiny followed the UTSA football program, and with that came a strengthening of their non-conference schedule. Houston, Army and now, they’ve reached the pinnacle of their schedule in Texas. This is it, their biggest chance to prove themselves this season.
Those first two matchups already proved to be tough, with both games needing overtime to decide it. Though they dropped the first one to Houston, they’ve already proven that last season wasn’t a fluke just by being in those games.
Now, UL-Lafayette had this same chance last season and failed tremendously, but this team is different. Frank Harris has had an impressive start to his senior season and the offense ranks in the top-25 in yards per game so far. They won’t put up as many points as they did in the previous two, but I don’t expect Texas to either.
Texas tends to implode after losing to top opponents, especially when it is in heartbreaking fashion. With Ewers out as well, expect this to be tight till the end. Longhorns still take it though.
Score: Texas 26 UTSA 24
Miami vs. Texas A&M, 8:00 PM CT,
ESPN
The Pick: Texas A&M -6.5
Hate it, I hate this one. Just get it over with A&M, we all know Miami doesn’t win these games.
Max Johnson has been named the starter at quarterback, a game too late I might add. I’m surprised he wasn’t the clear choice out the gate and I expect he will at least double what Haynes King managed against Appalachian State.
On the other side, Tyler Van Dyke’s Heisman campaign takes a hit here, as Miami scores the lowest point total of his career. While the Aggie offense’s struggles have been noteworthy, their defense has remained as stout as ever.
Score: Texas A&M 34 Miami 21
Peter’s Last Week: 1-4
Peter’s Season: 1-4
Peter’s Picks:
Penn State vs. Auburn, 2:30 p.m. CT,
CBS
The pick: Penn State -2.5
After a heavily disappointing debut last week, I’ve decided to jump right back in the fire this week, starting in the SEC. This is a game that has garnered a lot of attention, with a lot of talk of Auburn pulling a mild upset. I just don’t see it.
Quite frankly, Auburn is not a very good football team right now, and that was on display the first two weeks of the season. Last week was the most egregious example, an ugly 24-16 win over San Jose State. Penn State on the other hand, has proven itself already. Despite not playing a perfect game, the Nittany Lions secured a big road win against Purdue, before dominating Ohio at home.
The difference in this game is quarterback play. Auburn has not figured out the quarterback position yet, which is a major red flag going into a game like this. TJ Finley has not been impressive so far, and this game doesn’t feel like an ideal time to give Robbie Ashford his first start. It’s hard to win in Auburn and I think that will keep the game competitive, but Penn State is just a better team.
Score: Penn State 27-17 Auburn
Michigan State vs. Washington, 6:30
p.m. CT, ABC
The Pick: Michigan State +3.5
This is a big game that isn’t being talked about enough. This game is a huge opportunity for Washington, a program trying to rebuild, to make itself known nationally. Against Michigan State, though, a win certainly won’t come easy.
Mel Tucker has quickly become one of the hottest names in coaching after what he did with the Michigan State program last season. Almost every big school with a job opening had Tucker on their list, and for good reason. The Spartans went 11-2 last season, headlined by an upset win over Big 10 champions, Michigan. Now in 2022, they’re 2-0 and ranked No. 11 in the country, entering their first real test.
Playing against Washington in Seattle is never an easy task, and that crowd is a big reason why the Huskies are favored in this game. However, I don’t think they will have enough for this Michigan State team. The Spartans are as disciplined and well coached as it gets, and Mel Tucker is a great big game coach. I think Michigan State escapes.
Score: Michigan State 31-28 Washington
Pittsburgh vs. Western Michigan,
6:30 p.m. CT, ESPNU
The Pick: Western Michigan +11
This one is just too perfect. The second leg of a home-and-home series that Western Michigan holds a one-game lead in, this feels like an obvious trap game for Pittsburgh. After a grueling, emotional loss to Tennessee last week, the Panthers now have to travel to Kalamazoo to face Western Michigan.
Coupled with the fact that Pittsburgh quarterback Kedon Slovis may not play in this game due to injury, this will be a tough game for Pittsburgh. Western Michigan already showed in this game last year that it is capable of pulling an upset and the same could be true this year.
I don’t think Western Michigan pulls off the upset and wins outright this time, but I think an 11-point spread at home is stretching it. Pittsburgh will have some struggles in this game and that will be reflected in the final score, despite grinding out a win.
Score: Pittsburgh 28-20 Western Michigan
Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois, 2:30
p.m. CT, CBSSN
The Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5
This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend in my opinion. After starting the season with consecutive wins, Vanderbilt was humbled by Wake Forest last weekend, losing 45-25. This is the perfect opportunity for the Commodores to build some momentum and confidence headed into SEC play.
For Northern Illinois, it will also be trying to regain momentum and confidence after a close loss to Tulsa last week. This is especially big for Northern Illinois, going into a real grinder with Kentucky on the road next week.
Overall, I like Vanderbilt’s rushing attack in this game. I don’t think Northern Illinois will have a consistent answer for Mike Wright and Re’Mahn Davis, leading Vanderbilt to a win. It will be a high-scoring game, but Northern Illinois just won’t have enough.
Score: Vanderbilt 45-38 Northern Illinois
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska, 11 a.m. CT,
FOX
The Pick: Nebraska +11
This one is bold, but there is some reasoning here. Obviously, Nebraska has started the season about as bad as possible. Scott Frost is now gone, with Mickey Joseph taking over as interim head coach. In a lot of cases, when a change happens during the season, two things can happen. Either the players give up and quit on the program, or the change injects life in the locker room, with the team rallying around the interim staff.
The second option is what I see happening here.
This feels all too similar to when LSU fired Les Miles in 2016 and Ed Orgeron took over as interim head coach. In Orgeron’s first game, LSU dominated Missouri, and it felt like there was life in the team again. Mickey Joseph worked under Orgeron at LSU, and is already using some of Orgeron’s famous monikers.
At home, I think Nebraska plays on emotion, which will make this a fun game to watch. I think this game will go down to the wire and though I don’t see the Cornhuskers pulling the upset, I think they’ll cover the 11-point spread.
