Any seasoned college football fan wishes for another season like 2007, when upsets were frequent and no one was safe, not even the top dogs.   

Last week, three teams in the top-ten fell in No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Baylor. Adding to the upsets was No. 19 Wisconsin, who lost to Washington State as 17-point favorites. The Aggies and Fighting Irish’s losses were particularly surprising as they were taken down by Group of Five teams in Appalachian State and Marshall respectively.  

So, who’s it going to be this week? We’ll start with the more obvious ones and go from there.  

Washington (-3.5) over No. 11 Michigan State (6:30 p.m. CT, ABC)   

There is no predictability for this game to be honest, which is scary for a team that’s on the verge of entering the top-10. Each team has faced either an FCS or Group of Five opponent in their first two games and the results were almost the same. Almost.  

Washington’s realest test came against Kent State, where the Huskies won 45-20 and were largely successful through the air. Their defense struggled to get off the field a bit on third down, with the Golden Flashes converting nearly 60% of their third down conversion attempts, but they made up for it by forcing three turnovers.  

Michigan State’s also came from the MAC and was likely more stressful than Spartan fans would have liked. After finishing the first half with a 21-3 lead, Michigan State faltered temporarily, failing to score throughout the entire third quarter and allowing the Broncos to get back in the game. It took two fourth quarter touchdowns to secure their victory.  

Basically, basing our projections solely on action from 2022 makes this feel like anyone’s game.  

The Huskies are mostly unproven, but their starting quarterback has been known to pull off upsets from time-to-time. Michael Penix Jr. helped Indiana defeat No. 8 Penn State in 2020 and narrowly missed out on doing the same against an eventual playoff team in Ohio State. He may have struggled in the next season, but through his first two games with Washington, it seems like he is back in business.  

While Penix has had his struggles throughout his career, Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne has had his struggles throughout the season, throwing three interceptions against Akron and Western Michigan. I won’t say that Washington is outright going to upset Michigan State, but a few interceptions could be the difference here.  

First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer also isn’t a stranger to upsets, leading Fresno State to a win over No. 13 UCLA last season. Michigan State’s trajectory under Mel Tucker does provide the Spartans with a slight edge, but the Huskies have all the tools they need to pull it off.  

Texas Tech (+10) over No. 16 North Carolina State (6 p.m. CT, ESPN2) 

Analysts cite North Carolina State’s defense as one of the primary reasons they were ranked so high heading into the season, as it gave up less than 20 points per game. What many fail to point out is that it only faced four teams that placed in the top-50 in points per game: Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest and North Carolina.  

The Wolfpack defense gave up an average of 28.5 points per game in those, which isn’t bad considering two of those offenses ranked No. 16 or above in points per game but it doesn’t quite correlate with analysts’ portrayals of this defense. And that’s not even considering what would have happened if the Wolfpack scheduled a quality non-conference opponent.  

Enter Texas Tech.  

Whenever North Carolina State isn’t beating up on Furman, Charleston Southern and South Florida in non-conference play, it struggles immensely.  

In 2021, its potent passing attack put up just 10 points against Mississippi State while the Red Raiders put up 34 on the same team. And after earning their marquee win against Clemson, the Wolfpack narrowly avoided getting upset by a terrible Louisiana Tech squad. 

Then, to open the 2022 season, North Carolina State only avoided an upset vs. East Carolina because of its opponents’ own mistakes. The Wolfpack aren’t as good as analysts think, and Texas Tech is by no means an easy opponent.  

Since Donovan Smith earned the starting role at quarterback, Texas Tech’s offense has been completely transformed. The Red Raiders beat an 8-4 Iowa State team that had defeated No. 8 Oklahoma State and Texas in its previous three weeks and almost knocked Baylor out of the Big 12 championship to close out the regular season. Then, they blew out a heavily-favored Mississippi State team in the Liberty Bowl.  

They haven’t slowed down in 2022, starting the season 2-0 and sporting an impressive, double-overtime victory over then-No. 25 Houston. If you love watching upsets, this game should be at the top of your list of games to check in on every now and then. 

Liberty (+17) over No. 19 Wake Forest (4 p.m. CT, ACCN) 

You know… the last time the No. 19 team was a 17-point favorite, they lost. And Liberty has a history of giving ACC teams trouble under Hugh Freeze.  

The Flames beat Syracuse and Virginia Tech in 2020 while narrowly losing to North Carolina State to miss out on going undefeated. They followed that up with much of the same in 2021, barely losing to Syracuse and giving No. 16 Ole Miss a scare in the second half of their matchup.  

Liberty unfortunately doesn’t return quarterback Malik Willis, who was taken in the third round of the NFL Draft. His replacement, former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer, is also out for the foreseeable future after breaking his hand in Liberty’s opening game. But that’s where Kaidon Salter comes into the picture. 

Salter’s behavior is a question mark for the foreseeable future, as he was dismissed from Tennessee following two arrests while he was with the program. While that may cause problems for Liberty, he’s incredibly talented while he’s on the field. He sports similarities to the Flames’ previous centerpiece, possessing a great running ability while also being efficient in the passing game.  

Wake Forest can outpace almost anybody that isn’t ranked in the top-25 through the golden arm of quarterback Sam Hartman, but it faces a challenge this weekend. Liberty ranked in the top-five against the pass last season, giving up just over 180 yards per game against FBS opponents in the category.  

Now, Liberty did give up over 300 passing yards against Ole Miss, but the defense also held the Rebels to 27 points. Ole Miss had one of the best offenses in the SEC last season and scored more points than that against everyone except Alabama and Auburn. The offense may have lost some significant starters from last season, but the Rebels have filled those vacancies well, and they don’t appear to have lost a step through their first two contests.  

Liberty has forced an absurd nine turnovers through two games, including four against a solid Group of Five opponent in UAB. Their team is incredibly balanced, while Wake Forest’s is. The Demon Deacons gave up 25 points against Vanderbilt and I suspect they’ll give up 30 or more in this one.  

Fresno State (+11) over No. 7 USC (9:30 p.m. CT, FOX) 

Last season, Fresno State upset No. 13 UCLA in a similar situation. The Bruins’ expectations may not have been as high as USC’s are, but they were high at this time. Expectations don’t always become reality, and while I believe this Trojan team could be legitimate, that’s a strong ‘could.’ 

While the Bulldogs don’t return the head coach involved in that upset, they do return the quarterback, along with the resilience to get the job done. While they didn’t defeat their first PAC-12 opponent of the season in Oregon State, they were one stop at the goal line away from pulling it off.  

The Beavers have been impressive to start the season, so I don’t discount that effort at all. Fresno State has proven time and time again that it can match up with anyone from the PAC-12, and when I say anyone… 

I mean anyone. In each of its last matchups against Oregon and USC, the Bulldogs lost by just one score. They return a large portion of their starting lineups on both sides of the ball, so they should be even better this season.  

This will be an intense offensive battle that I expect to keep college football fans up a lot longer than anticipated. USC’s Caleb Williams-Jordan Addison tandem is not immortal by any means, and they’ll receive their first true test of the season tonight.