The outlook for LSU as the 2022 football season approached was shaky and unpredictable. While every team under Brian Kelly has effectively improved from where they began with him, that success rarely happened overnight.
Not to mention he’s dealing with his first schedule featuring eight SEC opponents, most of which sported higher projections than the Tigers heading into the season. They could be seen as checkpoints in LSU’s pursuit for a successful season, or hurdles to overcome. With every hurdle they conquer, the ones that remain become less intimidating.
Their first game did little to dull that intimation, as the contrast in Week One performances between LSU and its upcoming foes only drew more concern from fans.
While Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee showed off their potential with strong wins, the Tigers struggled against Florida State, ultimately suffering a loss many didn’t think they could afford. No win in the SEC is guaranteed, and with the team heading into conference play already possessing a loss, even its bowl outlook was questionable.
Sure, concerns went down after the Tigers came to life in the fourth quarter and almost came back, but they still lost to a team they shouldn’t have. While the Seminoles defeating Louisville without their starting quarterback for the second half is commendable, giving up 31 points and nearly 500 yards to a team that scored seven points against Syracuse is not so much.
That loss also elevated the importance of the Tigers’ first SEC matchup against Mississippi State to one of urgency, reference intended.
The matchups following that one (vs. New Mexico, at Auburn) might be easier, with many expecting those to go LSU’s way, but entering its toughest stretch spanning five games with two losses and wins being an overarching necessity would have placed a lot of pressure on the LSU coaching staff and players. Not to mention the damage in confidence that would have come with it.
Fortunately for Tiger fans, they can rest easy for now.
Through the continued late-game efficiency of quarterback Jayden Daniels, big plays in the second half and improvements in the secondary, LSU bounced back from its opening loss in New Orleans to secure a huge SEC victory, the first of many from Kelly and co. And while the Bulldogs aren’t the biggest hurdle the Tigers will have to face this season, they were still a notable one and could be higher on that list than many expected.
Mississippi State was most commonly projected to finish in the middle of the SEC West, typically falling just behind Arkansas and Texas A&M. Those teams have each picked up ranked wins but have also had their fair share of struggles, with the Razorbacks narrowly avoiding an embarrassing loss against FCS Missouri State and the Aggies getting upset by Appalachian State.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs exceeded expectations through two games, and that momentum carried into their matchup against LSU. Mississippi State jumped out to a 13-0 lead approaching halftime and appeared well on its way to a 3-0 start and a spot in the AP Top-25. That’s when LSU’s defense clamped down and its offense finally got clicking.
It will be clearer where the Bulldogs stand on LSU’s list of hurdles when they face Texas A&M in two weeks, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that they could take down either of those teams. That’s especially referring to the Aggies, whose ranked win against Miami is arguably less convincing than Arkansas’ win over Cincinnati due to the Hurricanes being less proven and Texas A&M’s prior loss.
The point is the competition for spots 2-4 in the West is more wide-open than many predicted. LSU still places lower than Arkansas and Texas A&M in most power rankings lists, but the Tigers place ahead of them in ESPN’s Football Power Index, ranking fifth in the conference in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency.
For reference, the Aggies rank near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and the Razorbacks rank similarly on defense. Florida and Auburn rank near the bottom in both.
That leaves Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee as LSU’s biggest hurdles, in my opinion.
Alabama is still Alabama and while a shaky win against Texas and a two-interception performance from Bryce Young against UL-Monroe might indicate this team is weaker than in years past, I’m not buying that narrative just yet.
Its 2020 campaign is one of its more renowned, but it kicked off with a shaky defensive performance against a mediocre Ole Miss, who went back and forth with the Tide until halfway through the fourth quarter and surpassed 600 yards on offense. They proceeded to blow most of their remaining schedule out of the water, defeating the likes of Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Auburn and Texas A&M by three or more scores.
Ole Miss has had an incredibly easy start to the season, but it did impress considerably with its 42-0 victory over Georgia Tech, where the Rebels dominated on both sides of the ball. They face their first true test in two weeks against No. 8 Kentucky, and with a win there and the matchups that precede and follow it, they could enter their matchup against LSU with a 7-0 record and tons of confidence.
They rank right behind Alabama in overall efficiency according to ESPN, but those numbers are inflated due to their schedule. Still, don’t expect them to be a shell of last year’s team just because they lost quarterback Matt Corral and their top three running backs from last season. Running backs Zach Evans and freshman Quinshon Judkins look like the real deal, and quarterback Jaxson Dart isn’t doing too bad early on either.
That leaves Tennessee, who isn’t LSU’s next hurdle, but is its next big one. While not sporting the defensive efficiency of Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s not even close, the Volunteer offense remains one of the most potent in the conference so far. They rank No. 3 in total yards per game, No. 7 in passing yards and No. 4 in average scoring margin against FBS opponents according to teamrankings.com.
Those numbers are inflated due to bouts with Ball State and Akron, but their offense remained efficient against a stronger defense in Pittsburgh’s. While the Tigers can’t look past New Mexico or Auburn, you should have this game circled a little more a bit more emphatically.
With the SEC being as volatile as it is, the outlook regarding LSU’s season could significantly change at the drop of a hat. But for now, one hurdle down, and seven to go.
