June 1 marks the start of hurricane season, and with it, a renewal of anxieties for Louisiana residents yet to fully recover from the past two years of natural disasters.
As some residents still sleep with blue tarps above their heads, scientists anticipate that this season could bring danger once again.
On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published its predictions that there will once again be “above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.” This prediction comes after last spring when NOAA scientists upped the standards for “average” amid 30 years of heightened storm activity.
NOAA climate forecasters predict a 65% chance of above-normal activity this year, a 25% chance of near-normal activity and a 10% chance of below-normal activity.
With 70% confidence, NOAA predicts 14-21 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, three to six of which are predicted to be major hurricanes of categories three to five. Though NOAA predicts this range of storms to form over the course of the season, it does not offer a prediction for how many storms will make landfall in Louisiana or other places.
One of the reasons scientists predict above-normal activity is an ongoing La Niña event, explained by NOAA’s climate division, brings more hurricanes “due to weaker vertical wind shear and trade winds and less atmospheric stability.” Strong vertical wind shear makes it difficult or impossible for storms to form, while weak wind shear enables storms to take shape without being torn apart.
Another reason Louisiana may face an active season is because of above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. One reason for this is the Loop Current, which Nick Shay, University of Miami professor of oceanography, calls the “the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks.” It’s a current of warm water that can supercharge storms, and this year it’s extending farther north into the Gulf than normal, leaving scientists concerned.
Another cause for above-average temperatures is climate change. As humans burn fossil fuels, more gas enters the atmosphere. Sunlight that may otherwise be reflected out to space is instead trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere, warming the planet.
As a storm passes over warm ocean waters, it absorbs energy. The warmer the waters, the more energy to potentially absorb. Simply put, as humans make the Earth hotter, the Gulf becomes an increasingly dangerous charging center for hurricanes before they make landfall in Louisiana and other coastal areas.
Rising seas – along with land subsidence and other factors – have also depleted thousands of acres of coastal land that once acted as an important buffer from storms.
Every year, Louisianans are applauded for their incredible resiliency in the face of such destructive natural disasters. While it is true that the strength of southern Louisiana is remarkable, no resident or community should be left to fend for themselves with strength of spirit as their only defense. Too many Louisianans have been abandoned by federal disaster response and insurance companies.
Whether we’d like to admit it or not, climate change has and will bring increasingly destructive storms to Louisiana. Resiliency alone is not enough to shoulder year after year of towns torn apart, roofs collapsed and power lost for weeks or months.
As Tracie Washington, a civil rights lawyer in New Orleans said, “Stop calling me resilient. Because every time you say ‘oh, they’re resilient,” that means you can do something else to me. I am not resilient.”
Louisiana’s people are tough, but they cannot be expected to fight for their lives year after year. That burden of survival cannot rest on so-called “resiliency” but instead demands real solutions.
It is unacceptable that Lake Charles spent over a year begging for additional federal help, neighborhoods still reeling from the carnage of two hurricanes, for aid to be delivered. It is unacceptable that the nation’s leaders have failed to adequately intervene while residents suffer from the consequences of natural disasters.
Storm preparedness should include a willingness to aggressively address the financial needs of communities before and after hurricanes make landfall. It should mean taking climate change seriously, which means taking on the oil, gas and chemical corporations that cause it.
It should mean providing people with economic autonomy by easing constraints of poverty that can make evacuation impossible and recovery equally difficult. It should mean that the federal government acts with as much urgency as possible to ensure that no resident goes without a roof over their head, clean water or adequate nutrition in a hurricane’s aftermath.
As Louisiana residents brace themselves for the coming months, they should not do so alone.
Claire Sullivan is a 19-year-old coastal environmental science and mass communication junior from CT.
