I should start by stating the obvious. During his time at LSU, Efton Reid did not meet the expectations fans and analysts had of him.
Reid was a five star commit out of The Steward School and IMG Academy, ranking as the No. 27 prospect in the country and the No. 3 center in the Class of 2021. He averaged a double-double in both his junior and senior seasons, and had an incredible post game that had many high-level basketball programs anxious to recruit him, including Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan and of course, LSU.
Though it was hard to imagine him meeting those initial expectations, with some considering him a “one-and-done” caliber player before the season even began, he was still predicted to accomplish more than he did at the most reasonable level of projection. But that is not entirely on him.
When I say not entirely, I’m not saying he did not have problems during his time with the program.
At his worst, he was foul-prone, finishing twelve of his last twenty-one games with four or more fouls and fouling out in four of them, and lacked strength and confidence at times, with fans calling him “soft” and “timid” based on his performances in conference play. He was also abysmal from the free throw line, finishing the season shooting 48.3%.
But what you’ve got to understand about Reid is that he had almost no experience playing against players that matched or exceeded his size and strength entering his first season of NCAA basketball. He started his basketball career in high school when already stood at an estimated 6’10” to 6’11’’, towering over most of his competition and typically not facing off against opponents stronger than him.
A different situation in which heightened competition helped an inexperienced player transition to a different league seamlessly was Clint Capela’s transition from the LNB in France to the NBA. Capela started playing basketball at age 15, originally pursuing a soccer career before a growth spurt inspired his brother to convince him to try basketball.
Capela averaged ten points on 66.5% shooting and seven rebounds in his third and final season in the league (16 points and 12 rebounds per 36 minutes). But this came after three seasons in the league, with the competition being tougher to adjust to than high school basketball.
While it’s difficult to compare the transitions, Capela didn’t have the advantages that Reid had, as he was facing guys that typically stood at or near his height that were heavily experienced and strong. After a little over a year and plenty of time in the weight room, Capela became effective with the Houston Rockets, reaching the level of efficiency he had attained in his final year in the NBA by his second full season of play.
Having that level of competition right out the gate is what allowed Capela to develop quickly in the NBA, and Reid having limited exposure to that is likely why he’s struggled against it.
You can see what I’m talking about in some of LSU’s earlier matchups in the season. In his first twelve matchups, he faced multiple teams that lacked a competitive presence underneath and benefited as a result.
Excluding his game against Texas State where he quickly fouled out, he averaged 10.5 points on an inconsistent 53% from the field, 6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, and he had some gems sprinkled throughout that stretch.
His second best scoring performance against Wake Forest, their best non-conference opponent besides TCU. He had 14 points on 77.8% shooting, two rebounds and a block, getting out-rebounded but scoring significantly more than opposing seven-footer Dallas Walton, who put up six points and 10 rebounds while shooting 25% from the field.
But that performance was a diamond in the rough, as most of those games came against teams that lacked size.
Once he got to SEC play, he faced off against post players that were his size and stronger than him, most of which had more experience as well. Adjustments weren’t effectively made and Reid’s minutes continued to dwindle, falling between 15 and 20 per game and likely resulting in a drop-off in confidence, which could have resulted in his timidness and uptick in fouls.
There are a few examples of lack of experience not being a problem for prospects with high expectations, like Joel Embiid for Kansas and of course, Oscar Tshiebwe for Kentucky, but think about those examples for a second.
Tshiebwe had already garnered college experience with West Virginia heading into his first year with the Wildcats and clearly had incredible advantages in strength and quickness at the position. He, along with Embiid, also benefited from playing on teams that tend to heavily rely on their big men, especially when they contain that level of skill.
Tshiebwe led the Kentucky starters in usage rate and Embiid trailed only Andrew Wiggins. On the other hand, Reid ranked eighth in the stat line with the Tigers, falling just behind fellow Tiger big man Shareef O’Neal. That’s been a common theme with Wade-led squads, with the only player ranking among the top-three in usage rate that matched Reid’s size and skillset being Duop Reath in 2017-18.
Sure, consistent and skillful play will typically increase a player’s usage rate and the aforementioned pair are dynamic players that warranted that usage, but to say LSU’s offense under Wade favored guards and outside shooting would be an understatement. LSU’s playstyle did not compliment Reid’s, as he is best suited to post-up players in the paint rather than receiving the ball on the perimeter or in midrange situations.
Most of his advantages come into play whenever he’s close to the rim, as he has an extensive arsenal of post moves at his disposal. That’s where choosing to transfer to Gonzaga will benefit him the most.
In the past five years, the Zags have had a power forward or center lead their team in usage rate. RJ Hachimura, Filip Petrusev, Killian Tillie, Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren have all been heavily relied on for the Bulldogs in recent years, with Petrusev and Timme having strikingly similar play styles to Efton Reid.
With Gonzaga, Reid will have plenty of the resources he needs to develop into the big man he was projected to be initially. He’ll be able to work under and with Timme for one full season, a player that has developed into a scarily consistent post player on offense and has dropped his foul average from nearly 3 a game to 1.6 in his most recent season.
Not to mention the Gonzaga coaching staff, which is underrated when it comes to developing big men who have opted to stay with the program.
People will argue that the drop in competition will make his elevated numbers meaningless and that’s somewhat valid considering how well he played in non-conference this season.
But with the continued development of programs like St. Mary’s, BYU and San Francisco, Gonzaga sporting one of the toughest non-conference schedules in recent years and the Bulldogs continued success in the NCAA tournament, he’ll have plenty of chances to face the competition he needs to face to become worthy of getting drafted in the first round.
To become the player we predicted he would be, he has to become stronger, limit his fouls, improve his free throw percentage and continue to develop the post moves and skills that had him highly recruited in the first place. He has all the tools he needs to succeed; he just has to put the work in to capitalize on them.
