Dominate the paint, snatch the boards and bully the competition.
LSU women’s basketball is heavily favored to win against Rice, which probably isn’t shocking to most. And, even more unsurprisingly, the program’s margin of victory is exclusively dependent on two of the programs best players: Angel Reese and Aneesah Morrow.
The Tigers aren’t immune to losing, but they certainly match up well against Rice. The Owls have averaged 37.6 rebounds a game this year, which is significantly less than LSU’s 46.5 per game.
On top of overall team ability in the paint, Rice’s leading scorer and rebounder, Malia Fisher is currently averaging 13.1 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game. Compared to LSU’s roster, Fisher would be the team’s fifth-best scorer and third-best rebounder (10 games minimum).
It’s crucial that Reese and Morrow, LSU’s two best defenders and rebounders, control the paint. Rice has had a lot of success this year, but its five leading scorers all shoot below 45% from the field. Meanwhile, LSU is averaging 46.7% from the field this year, with only four players, across the entire team, shooting less than 45%.
By exploiting Rice’s inability to collect rebounds, which prevents second chance shots, not allowing them to take high percentage shots in the paint and forcing them to rely on the program’s inefficient shooting, LSU should exit the matchup with a pretty sizable victory.
However, in order to achieve this, LSU needs to employ Morrow and Reese to mitigate these two Rice Owls:
Malia Fisher
Fisher might be Rice’s best player; she leads the Owls in points, rebounds, steals and blocks per game. She’s also been one of the more efficient players, shooting 43.1 from the field, 83.5% from the free throw line and 21.5% from the 3-point line.
Fisher takes 11.5 field goal attempts per game, which can be broken down to 9.2 2-point attempts per game, and 2.3 3-point attempts per game.
LSU can best mitigate her by switching defensive coverage between Morrow and Reese, which would also allow both players to have more than one assignment.
Fisher’s current turnover percentage is 16.9%, or roughly 16.9 turnovers per 100 possessions. LSU can exploit her poor ball security with Morrow covering her in the mid-range, who forces a turnover 8% of the time she’s on the court.
However, whenever Fisher enters the paint, depending on the offensive looks, Morrow should change her assignment and let Reese pickup Fisher.
Reese’s total rebound percentage sits at 21.3%, which is almost double Fisher’s 12.7%. On top of rebounding ability, Reese might be Fisher’s toughest defensive matchup to date.
Offensive and defensive ratings are calculated by estimating the points forced and allowed per 100 possessions. Reese, for example, has an outstanding offensive and defensive rating, with 122.7 and 76.7 respectively. Fisher, on the other hand, has a solid defensive rating, 84.5, and an unsatisfactory offensive rating, 95.7.
Reese’s matchup on Fisher would allow the Tigers to remove Rice’s leading scorer and rebounder by restricting high percentage shots and second chance opportunities.
Reese plays a major role because her defense could remove Fisher from the paint entirely, which forces Fisher to work against LSU’s best defender for the entire night: Morrow, who has a defensive rating of 75.1 (first among LSU players).
Fisher doesn’t have a natural feel for the 3-point line, hasn’t developed a good enough offensive game to have consistent success against Morrow in the mid-range and isn’t big enough to out muscle Reese.
By switching their defensive coverage, the Tigers will force Rice’s best player to shoot from areas of discomfort, worsening the program’s already poor efficiency.
Sussy Ngulefac
Ngulefac might be a rotational center, but she’s arguably been the program’s most important player over the past four games. Rice fans got to see her potential in a January matchup against SMU.
Ngulefac, who was coming off the bench, willed the Owls to victory; in a close game, she stole the show, finishing with 19 points, seven rebounds and a block, while shooting 88.9% from the field.
The 6-foot-3 center has been gaining more and more playtime as the season has gone on. Over the past four games, her minutes have skyrocketed. In their win against UAB, she dropped 12 points and 9 rebounds in only 18 minutes.
Against North Texas, Ngulefac had 9 points and 6 boards in 23 minutes; she shot 100.0% from the field as Rice narrowly won the matchup. In another close victory, this time against Temple, she played 28 minutes and finished with 11 points, five rebounds, two assists and two blocks.
She shot 71.4% in the victory, dominating in the paint. In Rice’s most recent matchup, Ngulefac played 34 minutes, where she finished with 15 points, 11 rebounds and a steal on 66.7% shooting from the field.
She’s Rice’s best chance at victory. Ngulefac’s size and defensive rating, 90.1, might make her a better matchup for Reese. Her offensive rating, 112.7, is also pretty outstanding for a rotational player.
She’s also a slightly better rebounder than Fisher, earning a board 12.9% of the time she’s on the court. However, Ngulefac has one serious flaw in her game: her turnover percentage.
On over one-fifth of her possessions, Ngulefac has turned the ball over. She’s statistically turning the ball over more than she is being utilized. Usage percentage is a way to determine a player’s role within an offense.
For Ngulefac, she’s utilized 18.1% of the time she’s on the floor, but turns the ball over 22.3% of the time, per 100 possessions.
In her past four games, she has had eight turnovers, including four in one game. Those are opportunities for the opposing offense.
LSU, who has the 11th best offensive rating nationally (111.4) and 15th best defensive rating nationally (80.4) has been great at creating turnovers, making this an even worse matchup for Rice.The Tigers (16.3) also force 5.3 more steals and blocks, per game, than the Owls (11.0).
If Reese and Morrow switch their defensive assignments, Reese can neutralize Ngulefac. Reese blocks or steals the ball 5.6% of the time she’s on the floor, on top of her strong defense in the paint, which means Ngulefac is going to have a tough time getting anything going.
This also helps LSU’s offensive game, as the turnovers she’ll have provide more opportunities for the Tigers.
It’s hard to keep anyone off the box score, but if the Tigers can restrict Ngulefac to an 8-point night, even if she’s 4-for-4 from the field, and force four turnovers, then they could be able keep her net impact at around zero.
Obviously, that’s reliant on the Tigers taking advantage of offensive opportunities, but as the 11th best offense in the nation, the program should.
The Tigers are a tough program for any team to have to face; unfortunately for Rice, this is even more true for them. The Owls are a well built team, but are susceptible to gritty teams, like LSU.
Even though the Tigers have a 97.9% chance of victory, per. ESPN, they shouldn’t underestimate Rice. If they want to enter the tournament with a bang, their margin of victory will be dependent upon how they minimize the Owl’s most impactful players.
