It came down to the wire, but, at the end of the day, one team had Josh Hubbard and the other did not.
Everything came together for Mississippi State’s supporting cast in a dominant second half in which the Bulldogs outscored LSU by 17, but it was Hubbard who drove the turnaround.
After making just one shot from the floor in the first half, Hubbard, the freshman guard, finished with 24 points and led Mississippi State to a 70-60 win.
With the loss, LSU has been knocked out of the SEC Tournament and Mississippi State moves on to face Tennessee, likely having secured an NCAA Tournament bid.
LSU fought but ultimately came short. Going forward, the Tigers aren’t guaranteed another game this season.
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The Tigers opened the game with an excellent defensive gameplan against Mississippi State’s two stars, Hubbard and senior All-SEC forward Tolu Smith III. With four days to get ready for the matchup, LSU came prepared.
When LSU and Mississippi State faced off the first time in February, Hubbard’s 3-point ability gave LSU fits as he went off for 32 points. This time, LSU doubled him to open the game and forced Mississippi State’s other players to score.
Against Smith, LSU used Hunter Dean to front him and deny him the ball so he couldn’t go to work in the post. Dean did an excellent individual job neutralizing him in the first half, keeping him from scoring and from coming up with rebounds.
At halftime, LSU led 29-22 and Hubbard and Smith were a combined 1-for-9 from the floor.
The second half brought a complete turnaround. Mississippi State began to run their offense more smoothly, with both Hubbard and Smith being more aggressive. In addition, the rest of the Bulldogs stepped up and the entire offense was able to get out in transition more often thanks to LSU’s offensive struggles.
That resulted in a second half that, just like the first meeting, completely flipped the game from a tight contest to a comfortable win. Even as LSU pulled to within one with 5:22 remaining, Mississippi State and Hubbard were in control.
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Mississippi State is a team who absolutely has the potential to do damage in March. LSU getting the Bulldogs in the SEC Tournament was always an unfavorable draw, but the Tigers gave them all they had.
LSU is clearly a program on the rise, but SEC contention is still beyond them for now.
Tigers struggle against physical Mississippi State defense
Mississippi State’s defense is one of the best in the country, and that was apparent the first time these two teams met up. The Bulldogs forced 15 turnovers and their aggressiveness stunted LSU’s ball movement: the Tigers finished with only four assists.
That was similar this time around. LSU had 18 turnovers and only nine assists while making only 38% of its shots.
It’s extremely difficult to get an easy shot against Mississippi State. When someone drives into the paint, the Bulldog defense immediately collapses on them, swallowing them up and forcing a bad shot or a turnover.
Trae Hannibal was one of the few Tigers who continued to attack the paint in the face of pressure, as has been his approach all season. He led the team with 18 points.
Still, the Tigers weren’t often able to handle that pressure well. LSU hesitated, failing to make the quick decisions out of double teams to find the open man before Mississippi State could recover. Hesitation is exactly what Mississippi State wants.
When LSU led in the first half, the Tigers had found a way to make those quick decisions and punish Mississippi State’s aggressiveness.
Freshman point guard Mike Williams III made a few smart passes to Dean, who scored vital points at the rim while making great decisions in the short roll, once finding Mwani Wilkinson for a corner 3-pointer.
Both Williams and Dean were impactful in the first half. Williams finished with seven points, four assists and two steals, while Dean had 10 points and six rebounds.
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In the second half, it was a slog all around to come up with points. Mississippi State made nothing easy, and with leading scorer Jordan Wright struggling en route to a 2-for-15 night, LSU didn’t have a go-to solution on offense.
Much of LSU’s success had to come from the 3-point line because of how Mississippi State sells out to protect the paint. The team made seven 3-pointers in the game, but only two of those came in the second half.
What’s next?
LSU has no chance of making the NCAA Tournament, but there remains a possibility it will be selected for the National Invitation Tournament.
In order to automatically make the NIT, LSU would have to be one of the SEC’s top two non-tournament teams in the NET rankings.
As it stands, LSU would likely need Texas A&M to make the NCAA Tournament in order for that to happen.
The Tigers could also be selected for an at-large bid to the NIT, which LSU projects favorably for as a team that has clearly grown over the course of the season.
The official NIT selections will be announced on Sunday after the NCAA Tournament field is announced.
