If you watched Wednesday’s matchup between LSU and Arkansas, you’d be surprised to hear that LSU was the team still holding onto postseason aspirations.
The Razorbacks played every bit like a team with something to play for, putting together a performance that was markedly sharper than LSU’s and handing the Tigers a 94-83 loss.
Just like LSU, the Razorbacks have been peaking of late. LSU, though, has been doing so while fighting for a potential NCAA Tournament (however unlikely) or NIT bid. The Tigers’ wins over South Carolina and Kentucky had the potential to be meaningful, to be the cornerstone of a postseason resume.
On the other hand, Arkansas has been all but assured for weeks that its season will be over once its stay at the SEC Tournament ends.
That didn’t prevent Arkansas from executing better than LSU in every phase, avenging a 21-point loss in Baton Rouge earlier in the season. Arkansas seemed in control the entire way; even when LSU was hanging around in the second half, the Tigers never really felt close, and Arkansas kept its hold on the lead.
Even though Arkansas has little left to play for, it’s playing solid basketball recently. That shouldn’t be surprising, though: the team has plenty of talent and a great coach in Eric Musselman. This late in the season, the Razorbacks seem to finally be living up to their potential.
Arkansas went 2-7 in its first nine games of SEC play, being outscored on average by 13.6 points. The Razorbacks were routinely embarrassed and outplayed.
Since then, Arkansas has gone 4-4 including Wednesday’s game, and all but one game has been a close one. If you take out the blowout loss to Tennessee, Arkansas actually outscored its opponents by 2.6 points in that span.
LSU’s loss on Wednesday complicates its chances for the NIT, as a strong finish to the season was needed to either overtake Ole Miss in the NET rankings for an automatic bid or prove itself worthy of an at-large bid.
LSU couldn’t come up with stops inside
Arkansas’ offensive skill was a big part of the loss. The Razorbacks ran their offense with success and relentlessly got to the paint, which has been its preferred identity all season: Arkansas is one of the least prolific 3-point shooting teams in the conference.
Such an approach requires guards with the capability to be physical, drive into the lane and either finish strong or draw a foul, as well as forwards who can finish plays when given the ball deep in the paint.
Arkansas has players with those skillsets, and it allowed the Razorbacks to put on a clinic in the restricted area, putting up 46 points in the paint.
LSU’s ball screen defense was repeatedly victimized. If LSU lagged off the ball handler, Arkansas had no problem finishing at the rim. When LSU blitzed the ball handler, Arkansas found the screener wide open, with the Tigers’ low defender in no position to prevent a layup.
Makhi Mitchell was a frequent beneficiary of these wide-open passes as a roller, finishing with 19 points.
Khalif Battle, who came into the game having scored 34 or more points in three straight games, continued his hot streak as well for Arkansas, notching 29.
Before the game, McMahon said he hadn’t seen an offensive explosion like Battle’s recent one since he coached future NBA player Ja Morant at Murray State. He also compared it to coaching against Steph Curry, which McMahon did as an assistant at Appalachian State competing in the same conference as Curry’s Davidson.
Battle’s continued dominance was aided again by his ability to draw fouls, as he went to the free throw line 14 times.
Because of its heavy offensive emphasis on the paint, Arkansas always gets to the line at an exceedingly high rate, and that was no different on Wednesday. The Razorbacks are No. 3 in the nation in free throw attempts per game.
LSU’s offense was flat to start
What weighed LSU down most in the first half was unequivocally its sloppy offense. The nine turnovers in the frame tell much of the story, as LSU was again prone to careless mistakes, inaccurate passing and trying to make more difficult plays over the simple ones.
The turnovers, in turn, put LSU’s defense in a disadvantageous position, as Arkansas was often attacking Tiger defenders who were on their heels, backpedaling. Arkansas had 26 fast break points on the night.
However, the offensive struggles went deeper than just turnovers. The spacing was poor because there was very little purposeful off-ball activity, producing a lack of space for LSU’s scorers to operate in.
Will Baker, who was lethal in the first matchup between the two teams with 25 points, was easily neutralized. When he caught the ball in the post, Arkansas’ defense immediately keyed in and attacked when he put the ball on the floor. That overwhelmed Baker, who finished with three points.
Because of its offensive struggles, LSU was fortunate to be within seven at halftime. That lead quickly ballooned to 12. Even as LSU began to find more of a foothold in the second half and closed the gap to four, the offense never truly hit its stride.
The Tigers made only five 3-pointers on a 27.8% clip for the night, and they also shot only 56.7% on layups, a poor percentage for a look right at the rim.
Sophomore forward Jalen Reed in particular missed several good looks right around the hoop. Though he made several good plays where he showed good timing and aggressiveness in going up for layups, he also had several frustrating misses and finished four for 11.
Jordan Wright led the team with 24 points, followed by Tyrell Ward with 19.
What’s next?
LSU will have its final game of the regular season hosting Missouri on Saturday at 7:30 p.m.
Missouri is the only team in the SEC without a win in conference play, currently sitting at 0-17. If LSU wins the game, it will finish the season with a respectable 9-9 record in SEC play.
It will also be senior night for LSU, with several impactful graduate players and seniors expected to be honored.
The win is a chance to build some momentum heading into the SEC tournament, where LSU would like a strong performance to continue to prove the progress the program has made and potentially make its final case for the NIT.
As it stands, LSU can finish as the seventh, eighth or ninth seed in the SEC tournament, meaning its first game will be on March 14.
