xLSU women’s basketball is just three wins away from a spot in the national title game, making it to its first Sweet 16 since 2014 with a 66-42 victory over No. 6 seeded Michigan.
While all eyes are on Friday’s matchup with No. 2 seeded Utah, looking forward to the path that awaits the team if it wins isn’t a bad idea depending on your perspective.
As a player or team, looking ahead to future matchups has never proven wise. It can often lead to a team disregarding the opponent right in front of them, which could’ve been the case for a few of the top seeds in this season’s tournament.
But as a journalist, projecting future matchups isn’t quite as impactful. In this case, I’ll be analyzing each potential matchup the Tigers could face in the Elite Eight and determining which one is more desirable.
Beware the Cinderella
The second round of the NCAA Tournament produced an anomaly, not only featuring the first Round of 32 loss by a one-seed since 2009 but also the second. No. 8 seeded Ole Miss and No. 9 seeded Miami defeated No. 1 seeded Stanford and Indiana respectively, with the Hurricanes’ victory occurring within LSU’s region.
Miami heads into its Sweet 16 matchup with No. 4 seeded Villanova as the lowest seeded team remaining in the tournament. And while that should make it the more desirable matchup compared to the alternative, there are clear reasons to be wary there.
Apart from UConn and Villanova, the only success the Big East has had in this tournament came in the form of a play-in victory from St. John’s, with No. 6 seeded Creighton and No. 9 seeded Marquette each being eliminated in the first round alongside the Red Storm.
Meanwhile, even after losing one of its top-seeded teams in Duke, the ACC has four teams remaining in the tournament, including top-seeded Virginia Tech and No. 3 seeded Notre Dame.
Miami managed 11 wins in one of the deepest conferences in women’s basketball, including victories over No. 6 seeded North Carolina, No. 7 seeded Florida State and most notably, Virginia Tech. It even had two chances to send its contest against Notre Dame to overtime, both of which clanked off the rim.
The Hurricanes aren’t flashy statistically and struggle defensively, ranking particularly low in opposing field goal and three-point percentages. But when they have momentum, they can give the best teams in the country a run for their money.
In their victory over the Hokies, they shot 53% from the field, 43.8% from three and 85.7% from the line, tying or outscoring Virginia Tech in every quarter. In the tournament, they fought back from a 17-point deficit to start the second half against Oklahoma State, momentum that carried into their matchup against No. 1 seeded Indiana.
Haley Cavinder and Jasmyne Roberts each shoot over 37.5% from behind the arc and forwards Destiny Harden and Lola Pendade have each been effective in the tournament, with Harden being able to consistently score from all areas of the court.
At this point, the amount of momentum Miami has could be compared to North Carolina’s in the men’s bracket last season. A win over Villanova would make it a terrifying team for the Tigers to face.
The Alternative
Miami continuing its Cinderella run past the Sweet 16 is by no means a guarantee.
Despite owning the two best wins of the bunch against Virginia Tech and Indiana, the Hurricanes were 3-7 against tournament teams heading into March Madness, which is a large step down compared Villanova’s 8-6 record in the category. That record is heavily impacted by it residing in the same conference as UConn, one of the favorites to challenge South Carolina for the national title.
It never managed to take down the Huskies, but it did give them a scare in each of their regular-season matchups. Villanova even went into the fourth quarter with a lead in Hartford, a game in which it was a 19.5-point underdog.
Villanova ultimately lost to UConn on three occasions, including a loss in the conference championship that wasn’t as close as the first two but remained tight through much of the first half. Even with those losses, it’s tied for No. 16 in the country in Quad I win-percentage, a worrisome stat line for an opponent that struggled immensely in Quad I matchups.
Villanova’s one of the more statistically sound teams in the country, ranking in top-50 in scoring defense, field goal, free throw and two-point percentage, assists and turnovers. It’s No. 1 in assist-to-turnover ratio, No. 12 in offensive rating and play one of the slowest paces in women’s basketball, all of which are detrimental to the Hurricanes if they get behind early.
Its one clear statistical weakness is opposing three-point percentage, where it ranks No. 294. But considering it just held one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country in FGCU to 57 points and seven made three-pointers, it may be okay in that regard.
A lot of their success depends on star forward Maddy Siegrist, who leads the country in scoring with 29.2 points per game. She’s put up 20 or more points in 36 straight games, which is the longest streak by any women’s or men’s Division I player this century.
The most comparable player LSU has faced is Tennessee’s Rickea Jackson, who averaged 19.3 points per game thanks to a vast arsenal of scoring techniques similar to Siegrist’s. Considering Jackson put up 26 points and 10 rebounds in LSU’s latest loss, a matchup with Siegrist could be interesting.
The Desirable Matchup
Despite Villanova’s consistency in Quad I matchups, it seems like there is a threshold it isn’t capable of cracking. Its biggest struggles came against UConn and Iowa State, the only teams Villanova has faced within the top-15 in NET.
Miami has two wins against teams in the top-10 in NET (Virginia Tech and Indiana), a close loss to a third in Notre Dame and a 10-point loss to a fourth in Duke. Though those games are spread throughout three months, Miami shows up each time it gets the chance to face a top team.
With LSU sitting at No. 3 in NET, I don’t see Villanova upsetting it. Though its games against UConn were close, it fell apart at the conclusion of each regular season matchup and got effectively locked down in the Big East championship while getting torched on defense.
Considering where Miami’s momentum would be if it were to take down Villanova, I’d say the Wildcats are a more desirable opponent. At the end of the day, this is March Madness, so I am prepared to be proven wrong.
