As three-seed LSU prepares to face two-seed Utah Friday night, an unlikely pregame favorite has emerged.
Despite being the lower seed, LSU is favored by the betting lines. The Tigers are a popular pick to make the upset against a very good Utah team.
This isn’t altogether unsurprising; LSU is flashier and has more star power than Utah, with one of the greatest coaches’ women’s basketball has ever seen in Kim Mulkey and a contender for national player of the year in Angel Reese.
The Tigers are also arguably under seeded. A disappointing end to the regular season, with a 20-point loss to No. 1 South Carolina and a loss in the semifinals of the conference tournament that saw LSU lose a 17-point lead, led the team to fall from the top four nationally all the way to the three seed in its region.
LSU faced criticism for facing an easier schedule in the weak SEC, but the conference is 11-3 so far in the NCAA Tournament, with six of its seven tourney teams having won at least one game, some despite being the lower-ranked seed.
Still, there is a very real possibility the Tigers’ season ends in Greenville against Utah. Mulkey has made clear that the expectation for the team and for the program is just to improve upon last year, win two games and make the Sweet 16.
LSU has done that. Mulkey is not under the illusion that the Tigers are destined or entitled to win another game, and there are several reasons LSU should not expect that.
Utah’s efficient offense
Statistically, the Utes have an offense better than any team LSU has played this year.
The Tigers have had the offensive edge in almost every matchup of the season, currently ranking No. 5 in the nation points per game at 83.2. Utah ranks just above them at No. 3 with 83.5.
In addition to that, Utah scores with incredible efficiency, shooting a 48.6% field goal percentage on the season (No. 4 in the country), compared to 46.69% for LSU (No. 10).
Utah also moves the ball around with ease, ranking No. 6 in the NCAA in assists per game at 18.5. LSU is considerably further back at No. 53.
Offensively, Utah is led by two extremely talented and efficient players in Alissa Pili and Gianna Kneepkens. Pili was the Pac-12 Player of the Year, while Kneepkens made the All-Pac-12 Team.
Pili has averaged 21 points per game this season on a 59.1% field goal percentage. Kneepkens has averaged 15.1 points on 60.1% efficiency. Both are capable of shooting from outside, as they both average over two three-point attempts per game and make over 40% on those shots.
In addition, both Pili and Kneepkens shoot better than 60% from two-point range, something even Angel Reese hasn’t been able to do this season, as she’s sitting at 54%.
Utah’s star players have diverse skillsets, and its offense is poised to test LSU like no other team has yet.
Historical NCAA Tournament trends
The historical odds are not in LSU’s favor as the lower seed. The NCAA Women’s Tournament is notoriously more predictable than the men’s tournament, with chalk often reigning supreme.
For instance, in 11 of the last 13 tournaments, at least three of the final four teams were top-two seeds in their region. Since the women’s tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1994, there have been four instances of the Elite Eight being the original top eight seeded teams (which has never happened in the men’s tournament) and three instances of the Final Four being all four one-seeds (which has happened just once in the men’s bracket).
More specifically to LSU, Utah is the odds-on favorite in this game as a two-seed facing a three-seed.
Generally, two-seeds are significantly more successful than three-seeds in the tournament. Since 2008, about 64% of two-seeds have advanced to the finals of their region, compared to only 18% of three-seeds.
Head-to-head matchups, like the upcoming one between LSU and Utah, have also disproportionately favored the two-seed. Since 2008, two-seeds are 15-5 when facing a three-seed.
LSU’s weaknesses as a team
LSU also has several things it has struggled with as a team this season that Utah may be capable of exploiting.
For one, LSU has committed to an offense that operates primarily in the paint. While that approach has been devastatingly effective, it has on occasion left the Tigers vulnerable to other teams’ three-point shooting barrages.
Utah shoots three-pointers with better efficiency (35.21%, No. 32 in the nation) and significantly higher frequency than LSU. LSU only attempts 15.1 threes per game, which ranks No. 295 in the NCAA, compared to 23.5 for Utah, which ranks No. 49. That could be an issue if the Utes’ shooters get going.
In addition, LSU has shot poorly from the line as a team, with its 70.2% mark ranking No. 204 in the country. Utah, on the other hand, has been excellent, shooting 78.1%, No. 18 in the country. If a close game comes down to free throws, the Utes will certainly have the upper hand.
LSU has also had trouble maintaining and building upon leads, something that definitely affected it during its conference schedule. After a 14-0 non-conference slate that featured only one game won by a single-digit margin, the Tigers were challenged in SEC play and lost two games while winning another five by single-digit margins, with several very near losses.
“We have had significant leads this year, and we don’t separate ourselves. We allow with our mistakes other teams to cut into the lead,” Mulkey said before the team’s first round matchup against Hawaii.
LSU is certainly capable of beating Utah, but doing so will be no easy task. The Tigers have shown that they aren’t invincible.
