LSU always knew this season was going to be an uphill battle.
With a new head coach in Matt McMahon and a roster with only three returnees, the Tigers’ season could’ve gone any number of ways. Generally, the collection of talent seemed like it would be capable of competing in the SEC, even if it was probably never going to be among the league’s best.
The early returns confirmed as much. LSU looked relatively strong with an 11-2 non-conference record, but it was also clear that things would probably level out in SEC play. The Tigers were able to win, but didn’t blow their opponents away, even against some lower-level teams. LSU fans had modest expectations.
What no one could’ve predicted is the absolute nosedive that would come in LSU’s conference schedule. After an opening win against ranked Arkansas on Dec. 28, the Tigers have lost every game since.
LSU’s current 10-game losing streak is historic. It’s currently tied for the sixth-longest in program history. The record of 15 was set during the 2016-17 season under Johnny Jones, topping the previous record of 14, set in the 1965-66 season and matched the following year.
The bottom has fallen out for an LSU team that has almost no hope of playing meaningful postseason basketball because of this streak. Although the Tigers have made improvements in their last two games, particularly on the offensive end, having notched two of their three highest scoring outputs of the conference schedule in that span, it hasn’t yet resulted in a win.
The goal for the rest of the season is really just to see if the team can string together some competent performances and establish some momentum heading into next year, when LSU at least figures to have more continuity than it did this season.
But there’s also a secondary goal for the Tigers: avoiding infamy.
If LSU doesn’t win one of its next five games, it will find itself sharing a dubious distinction, having lost the most consecutive games in Tiger history.
A 16th straight loss would have them in sole possession of that embarrassing record.
The good news for the Tigers is that the schedule ahead of them is undoubtedly easier than the stretch they’ve left behind. Every SEC opponent LSU’s faced through 10 games is either projected to be in the NCAA Tournament or included as one of the first four out, according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. Only three of LSU’s remaining opponents hold that distinction.
In their all-important next six games, the Tigers will face only one team listed by Lunardi: Texas A&M, projected to be one of the first four teams outside of the tournament bubble.
Still, according to ESPN’s win probability projections, LSU’s favored to win only two of its next six games. The Tigers are calculated to have an 89.8% chance of beating South Carolina on Feb. 18, which makes sense, considering the Gamecocks are the only team below LSU in the SEC standings at 1-10. LSU’s also favored against Vanderbilt on Feb. 22, with a 63.7% chance of winning.
LSU would obviously like to win before then and avoid that drama, but a victory may be hard to find. Mississippi State’s a tough team that has wins over Missouri and ranked TCU, while Texas A&M boasts a 9-2 conference record, albeit without having played Tennessee or Alabama, the conference’s two best teams.
Georgia seems like a team LSU will have a better chance of beating, as the Bulldogs have losses in six of their last seven games, most of which were uncompetitive. However, Georgia scored more than 70 points in five games during that span, something LSU’s done only twice in all of SEC play.
If the Tigers are winless in their next three games, those South Carolina and Vanderbilt matchups will certainly be dramatic, but LSU would have reasonable expectations of winning, as both teams have struggled.
Statistically speaking, LSU will almost definitely not set the program record for losses in a row. Using ESPN’s win probability projections, the Tigers have about a 1.5% chance of losing all of their next five games, and about a 1% chance of hitting that additional 16th consecutive loss.
However, it seemed improbable that LSU would find itself in this situation to begin with. Until LSU breaks the streak, stops the bleeding and reminds people what a win feels like, the disappointment that this season has been will have people fearing the worst.
