After a long period of struggle following its positive start to conference play, LSU has begun to reestablish itself as a team with potential.
The last two games have each featured upticks in scoring, field goal percentage and offensive rebounds, and the result has been two decently competitive games.
But while each of its prior two opponents have been somewhat decent teams, with Missouri being a projected seven-seed at this time and Texas Tech following up its win over the Tigers with a top-15 victory, they don’t hold a candle to the team’s upcoming opponent, No. 4 Alabama. Last time the teams faced off, things got ugly fast, with the Crimson Tide eventually handing LSU its first 40-point loss in nearly three decades.
“It is what it is. I mean, we got our butts kicked,” McMahon said on the loss. “When you play a team of this caliber, second-shot opportunities and turning the ball over, we don’t need to supply any additional help. They’re plenty good enough to win games.”
It will be interesting to see whether or not this team has truly improved and can maintain this higher level of success. It still has a ton of room for improvement, but if it manages to avoid a blowout loss against Alabama or even makes things interesting, it should serve as evidence that this program is trending in the right direction.
What LSU has going for it
The biggest points of improvement through the last two games have been scoring and offensive rebounding, with the Tigers sporting upward trends in points, field goal percentage and offensive rebounding rate. These were all points of which they struggled with early in SEC play, so improvements there should allow them to earn some wins, or at least keep fans watching.
Amidst its losing streak, LSU failed to score over 60 points five times in a six-game stretch, so seeing it finally crack 60 against the Red Raiders was a relief for fans everywhere. Then, it took things a step further against Missouri, coming three points away from its first 80-point showing since mid-December.
And while its shooting percentages can still improve tremendously, particularly in late-game situations, they’ve still moved upward through the last two games. Prior to the matchup against Texas Tech, fans had gotten used to watching the team struggle to crack 30% shooting from the field, an astronomically tough flaw to work around.
So a 37.5% showing against the Red Raiders and 41% one against Missouri are great signs, especially when coupled with an additional improvement in offensive rebounding.
Against Texas Tech, the Tigers obtained 17 offensive rebounds on 41 missed shots (including free throws), getting a second chance to score on 41% of their misses. And against Missouri, that number increased to 44%. McMahon believes LSU’s boost in scoring has been heavily influenced by its improvements on the boards.
“Derek [Fountain] and KJ [Williams] were really aggressive on the offensive boards on Wednesday and I hope to see that continue to be an area we keep getting better at because we haven’t shot a great percentage from the floor, obviously,” McMahon stated. “So, we need to get on the offensive glass and try and create some second opportunities for ourselves.”
What LSU needs to improve upon
The biggest problems the team has to worry about against Alabama is three-point defense and defensive rebounding, which the Tide do a great job of exploiting when they’re not up to par. Alabama is a top-10 team in terms of both three pointers made and offensive rebounds per game according to teamrankings.com.
What kept LSU just out of reach the entire game against Missouri was the inability to guard the outside shot, especially early in the game when it was able to build a sizable cushion. It finished shooting 48% from three, with the Red Raiders trumping that with 61%. If the Tigers can’t get it together there against the Crimson Tide, they have no chance of winning this game.
“Just like what’s often the case, you miss a couple of those assignments, I thought Missouri got some confidence and then hit a couple tough ones as the [first] half went on,” McMahon said on Missouri’s success from three. “We have to a better job there, that’s just the bottom line.”
When Alabama’s offense is confident, there’s nothing standing in its way of putting up NBA-like numbers. It’s even better when its opponent doesn’t put up a fight on the defensive boards like LSU did when it gave up 20 offensive rebounds to it in their previous matchup.
The Tigers rank in the low end of the bottom half of the country in defensive rebounding, and that’s a category that has still seen little improvement, if any. McMahon believes that played a big part in the team’s last matchup with the Tide getting so out of hand.
“We got absolutely destroyed in the second chance points and they turned those into some of those dagger threes,” McMahon said. “The avalanche was on from there.”
Improvements in both those categories coupled with the continued success in offensive execution still put the Tigers in a rough spot, with one team sporting a nine-game losing streak and the other looking like it could be at the top of the NCAA Tournament come March. But it would certainly give them a better chance at pulling off the improbable.
