A week ago, it looked like Ole Miss and LSU may have been on a collision course for the SEC West title.
Before last week’s game against Alabama, 4-0 Ole Miss and head coach Lane Kiffin had the best offense in the SEC by far. The Rebels were averaging 52.7 points per game and over eight yards per play, making them runaway leaders for both categories in the SEC.
After years of dreams crushed at the hands of the Crimson Tide, Ole Miss thought this would be its year to beat Alabama for the first time since 2015, especially with Alabama looking extremely vulnerable this season.
Instead, Alabama stifled Ole Miss in a 24-10 match that stopped the Rebels’ aspirations in its tracks. The loss dropped Ole Miss’ offensive rankings in points per game and yards per play to second in the SEC behind LSU’s explosive offense.
OLE MISS VERSUS LSU: Analyzing the Ole Miss offense ahead of LSU’s matchup with the Rebels
It remains to be seen how Ole Miss will respond to the loss. Last year, after a 7-0 start, the Rebels were beaten by LSU in Death Valley in an upset that they never quite recovered from, losing four of their five subsequent games.
Ole Miss wants to answer differently this time.
Despite the way it played against Alabama, Ole Miss’ offense is still threatening. Quarterback Jaxson Dart offers dual-threat ability and oversees a receiving corps of home run hitters. The Ole Miss offense has generated 34 plays of over 20 yards this year, which is No. 2 in the country, and Dart averages the most yards per completion in the SEC.
Receivers Dayton Wade, Jordan Watkins and Tre Harris offer speed that will thoroughly test the LSU secondary, which has had its struggles.
Last year, Ole Miss also had one of the best offenses in the country, powered by an elite running game. This year, it has leaned more on the pass, dropping from 47.2 rushing attempts per game to 33.5.
Sophomore running back Quinshon Judkins, the seventh-leading rusher in the nation last season, has been underutilized and troubled with injuries, but he’s also had to deal with poor offensive line play.
With two new starters, the Ole Miss offensive line hasn’t been much of a force this year, which especially showed against Alabama. In its first matchup against SEC athletes, Ole Miss allowed five sacks.
Ole Miss had a clear athletic disadvantage versus Alabama, as most teams do. Given that, there are few worse matchups for Ole Miss than fellow recruiting powerhouse LSU. LSU is equipped with the team-wide athleticism to challenge the Rebels in all phases of the game.
More specifically, if LSU’s quick front seven controls the line of scrimmage like Alabama did, it will be another rough day for the Rebel offense.
The Rebels also struggle greatly to convert third downs, with a 35.4% conversion rate that ranks No. 106 in the country. Ole Miss was 3 of 14 and 1 of 13 on third down in its two ranked matchups against Alabama and Tulane, respectively.
If Ole Miss can’t sustain drives or if the team simply doesn’t have the athleticism to hold off LSU’s front seven, then this game could get ugly quick. However, LSU should still be wary of Ole Miss’ big play ability. This game could be a shootout if Dart and company get comfortable.
Ole Miss’ offense, in some ways as a byproduct of its explosiveness, has held onto the ball for a lower time of possession than all but one team in the country. The Rebels score so quickly that it hasn’t usually mattered — 13 of their 26 scoring drives have lasted five plays or fewer — but that time of possession deficit can tire out a defense.
That was the case against Alabama. In the first half, Ole Miss held Alabama to six points, including intercepting a pass in the end zone and later holding Alabama to a field goal after a blocked punt set them up at Ole Miss’ one-yard line.
ON THE LOOKOUT: Ole Miss players to watch against LSU
Occurrences like that haven’t been uncommon for the Ole Miss defense, which has allowed only five touchdowns on 12 red zone possessions this season, the second-best percentage in the SEC.
However, after the successful first half, the defense was worn out, and Alabama ran the ball with success in the second half. On the game, the Crimson Tide averaged a solid 4.3 yards per rush (not counting sacks or kneel-downs).
Ole Miss’ defense certainly has its strengths, ranking No. 11 in the country in sacks. True freshman outside linebacker Suntarine Perkins, who Kiffin compared to LSU’s Harold Perkins last week, leads the team in that department.
The former five-star recruit made a remarkable impact as a quarterback spy against mobile Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe. It will be interesting to see how Perkins attacks Jayden Daniels as he attempts to contain Daniel’s rushing ability.
The Tigers will likely find success through the air, as they have all season, against Ole Miss’ middling pass defense. If defensive fatigue plays a factor once again, LSU can get the running game going as well.
The keys for LSU on offense will be protecting Daniels and converting in the red zone, two difficult things to do against the Rebels.
Ole Miss will be extra motivated after its loss to Alabama, so LSU needs to be on alert. The Rebels have been explosive in many ways this season, but Saturday’s matchup in Oxford will prove whether the Alabama loss was just a fluke or an indictment of Ole Miss’ athleticism.
