With peak hurricane season beginning in mid-August, another group of forecasters say the Atlantic is in for more storms than they first thought.
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday they anticipate above-normal storm activity this season. They had predicted in May, shortly before the season began, activity would be near-normal.
Their new forecast for this season predicts between 14 to 21 named storms, with winds of at least 39 miles per hour; six to 11 hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph; and two to five major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph. 
NOAA scientists give a 60% chance for an above-normal season, a 25% chance for near-normal and a 15% chance for below-normal. That’s twice the chance for an above-average season than NOAA anticipated in the spring.
This hurricane season is a battle between record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and El Niño, a climate phase that produces storm-slashing vertical wind shear.
NOAA scientists think those warm temperatures will win out and note hurricane-curbing forces from El Niño have been slow to develop.
NOAA isn’t the only forecasting group that has raised its prediction amid the unusual ocean temperatures. Forecasters with Colorado State University heightened their outlook in July, citing similar reasoning.
CSU researchers forecasted a 48% chance of a landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline, 25% for the East Coast and 31% for the Gulf Coast. These probabilities are a few percentage points higher than normal. 
The Atlantic season has had an active start. There have already been five named storms, including one hurricane. The average season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, according to NOAA.