While bracketology projections for the 2022-23 men’s basketball season are in their infancy and prime for dramatic change, they are still worth keeping an eye on as we progress through conference play. LSU in particular will be an interesting team to watch moving forward, exceeding expectations in each of its first two SEC contests.
As we approached SEC play, projections made on how the Tigers would perform when it began were difficult to back, with competition against the Power Six being rare for them. Because of that, the Tigers have navigated the bubble throughout the last few weeks,
On one hand, LSU went 1-1 against the Power Six, with that one loss coming by two points to Kansas State. The Wildcats posed similar potential and questions heading into conference play as the Tigers, making the magnitude of that loss difficult to gauge at the time. On the other hand, its lack of Power Five competition kept critics wondering whether or not they were prepared for the elevated level of competition.
I was one of those critics, believing it would take a few games for the Tigers to adjust to SEC competition. I was quickly proven wrong.
They went into their first SEC contest at home against Arkansas as five-point underdogs. Although it was a tight game featuring performances from both teams that were far from perfect, LSU found a way to win it in impressive fashion.
It totaled 10 turnovers against one of the more dangerous defenses in the country, displaying effective preparation from the coaching staff. It also illustrated the ability to bounce back after surrendering momentum, quickly turning the game around after falling behind by six midway through the second half.
These traits were replicated in a similarly tough matchup against Kentucky on the road, a game in which the team was projected as 10.5-point underdogs. It faced off against one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and at first glance, it seems like it failed to control the Wildcats’ strong suit.
And it did fail, surrendering 10 offensive rebounds to Kentucky and losing the rebounding battle 31-22.
However, all 10 of those offensive rebounds came between the 9:58 mark of the first half and 8:12 mark of the second, a period where the Wildcats outscored the Tigers 42-34 and built a seven-point lead heading into the game’s final stretch. LSU was able to control the boards for the remaining 18 minutes and 14 seconds of game time, outscoring Kentucky 37-32 and outrebounding it 14-7 within those spans.
While not much changed regarding Kentucky’s lineup, with Oscar Tshiebwe playing all 40 minutes, LSU’s swapped continuously.
Fountain, who led the Tigers by a wide margin in rebounds with eight, was notably out for a large portion of the first half because of foul trouble, including all but 17 seconds of the last 13 minutes of the period. McMahon rotated Kendal Coleman, Jalen Reed and Shawn Phillips in throughout that span, usually paired with KJ Williams, and those combinations struggled to keep Tshiebwe contained
The point is, despite losing the rebounding battle by a large margin, along with Kentucky finishing the game with efficient percentages in all three shooting categories, the Tigers managed to make it a game in the end. When they were able to control the boards in the final stretch, they cut the Wildcat lead down from 10 to one score on multiple occasions.
Once again, they exceeded expectations, covering the spread by 7.5 points.
Their three matchups against Quad I teams were each decided by one score and LSU arguably beat the best of those three, with the Razorbacks currently projected as a three seed in early bracketology predictions. Even with their star out, they bounced back after their loss to the Tigers and beat a promising Missouri team that’s currently ranked No. 20 in the country.
Kansas State soared in Joe Lunardi’s latest projections as well, going from a nine-seed to a four-seed after defeating No. 24 West Virginia and No. 6 Texas this week. A team that should be in the top-15 next week and is ranked in the top-50 in both offensive efficiency and true shooting percentage scored just 61 points on 41.7% shooting from the field against the Tigers.
And while Kentucky is projected as a seven-seed, I expect that to rise throughout the season as Calipari’s young team continues to adjust. Its matchup against No. 7 Alabama at noon on Saturday is a must-watch game.
At the moment, LSU is a bubble team in bracketology, landing in the Next Four Out in Joe Lunardi’s latest update. That makes sense considering its 1-2 record against Quad I opponents and two combined wins over teams from Quad II and III (It is 9-0 against Quad IV), but its projection is likely to change soon. Its next two matchups come against Texas A&M (9-5, 1-0 SEC) and Florida (7-7, 0-2 SEC), which aren’t surefire wins but are easier matchups than its prior two.
A decisive win over the Aggies on Saturday could be enough to propel the Tigers into the AP Top 25 despite their loss to Kentucky, as it came into the week as the team with the most votes to crack it. Back-to-back wins over two Quad II teams should move them out of the bubble as well.
