On March 19, 2009, the LSU basketball team played Butler in a 8-9 seeded game. The Bulldogs had current Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward and college hoops stars Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, but the Tigers’ defense had 11 steals and 8 blocks to ensure a 75-71 victory.
Making its first tournament appearance six years later to the day, LSU is the talent-ladened nine seed hoping to avoid an early exit.
At this point, there are two viewpoints from fans — the ones who see the Tigers in the Final Four and the others who see them losing tonight. But have no fear Tiger faithful, LSUsports.net has Saturday’s potential matchup against either Villanova or Lafayette on its schedule already.
If that’s not confidence, I don’t know what is.
In reality, there’s no way to tell for sure which team wins, especially when the Wolfpack mirrors the Tigers in many ways.
NC State has four wins against the RPI Top-50 — Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Boise State. LSU has three such victories against Arkansas, West Virginia and Georgia. Both teams enter the tournament with 6-4 records in their last 10 games.
NC State’s second leading scorer, senior guard Ralston Turner, transferred from LSU shortly after Johnny Jones became the head coach.
Speaking of coaches, Tiger fans should be familiar with Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried, who coached at Alabama for 11 years.
Gottfried maintains the tournament experience edge with 10 NCAA appearances to Jones’ two, but both coaches have been in the Big Dance before.
LSU is 9-10 in the tournament as a lower seed. Nine seeds are 69-75 against eight seeds in tournament history. No matter how you slice it, the eight-nine match-up is difficult.
So let’s throw historical stats aside and focus on what decides almost every game — turnovers, free throw shooting, rebounding and clutch shots.
LSU’s most recent game was a head-scratching loss to Auburn in the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The Tigers committed bonehead errors down the stretch, including shot clock violations missed free throws and not fouling a 48 percent free-throw shooter with seconds left in a three-point game.
LSU can play with anyone in the country but proved against Auburn it can also lose to anybody.
In that loss, the Tigers managed to take three of the things that decide close games and mess them up. But after nearly a week to regroup from the loss, I’m going with the Tigers.
They have the nation’s second leading shot-blocker in Jordan Mickey. Jarell Martin and Keith Hornsby have become a dynamic inside-out scoring combo capable of posting over big point totals any night.
The Wolfpack have the Atlantic Coast Conference’s best three-point shooting duo with Turner and junior guard Trevor Lacey, but LSU has at least three players who can carry them to a victory any night.
Whenever LSU loses (or wins the whole thing, if you want to leave that as a possibility), Mickey and Martin will probably have played their last games in purple and gold. Mickey’s been playing hurt for a while, but in what could be his final game, I expect him to show his All-SEC First Team self.
The Tigers must figure out how to make free throws, avoid foul trouble and not beat themselves with turnovers to play on Saturday. If not, don’t be surprised when their year ends in yet another disappointment.
Brian Pellerin is a 21-year-old mass communication junior from Kenner, Louisiana. You can reach him on Twitter @Pellerin_TDR.