Surely, the LSU men’s basketball team didn’t expect this.
Its porous play, stemming from a different factor each night, wasn’t expected. Neither was five losses heading into conference play, clouding the postseason path of the talent-rich, yet unpredictable Tigers.
Future success was written in pen for a team featuring the consensus No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft, Ben Simmons; a physical big man in Craig Victor — the supposed missing piece to LSU’s struggle puzzle once he became eligible; three-point and defensive specialist Keith Hornsby; McDonald’s All-American and AAU teammate to Ben Simmons, Antonio Blakeney; and future-projected NBA draftee Tim Quarterman at point guard.
On paper, it makes for quite a star-studded starting lineup, and perhaps one of most threatening not only in the SEC, but in the nation.
But reality, as it usually does, has set in.
LSU has lost five games to the five best opponents on its schedule thus far: Marquette, NC State, Houston, Charleston and Wake Forest on Tuesday. After 12 nonconference games, NCAA Tournament hopes and even a bid to National Invitational Tournament is looking less and less promising.
“Certainly, that’s not where we were aiming to be,” said LSU coach Johnny Jones.
And the journey only gets tougher, while Simmons’ time in Baton Rouge gets shorter.
According to KenPom’s Dec. 29 rankings, LSU will face No. 18 Vanderbilt in Nashville on Saturday, No. 15 Kentucky at home on Jan. 5 and No. 26 Florida in Gainesville, Florida four days later.
Similarly to LSU, all three future opponents haven’t played their best basketball lately.
Vanderbilt (8-4) has lost four of its last six games. Kentucky (10-2) dropped two games to Ohio State and UCLA, which Wake Forest defeated by three, 80-77, in late November. Florida (8-4) is sixth in the SEC, standing one spot ahead of the Commodores and two in front of LSU.
Excluding junior forward Brian Bridgewater, the Tigers are as close to full strength as they’ve been all season. But they may face an even harsher reality than its current status if it were to drop all three of the marquee SEC matchups – a sub-.500 hole possibly too deep to climb out of.
The Tigers, though, are looking at the beginning of SEC play as a new beginning.
“To start fresh, it’s a blessing,” Victor said. “We’re trying to get into the NCAA Tournament like every team in the conference.”
Victor said the most important change LSU must make to reach the tournament has to happen in Baton Rouge.
“Taking care of home court,” Victor said. “We can’t lose at home. That’s the one thing you have to take pride in.”
Reasonably, LSU will have to defeat multiple power SEC teams, along with a nonconference victory against Oklahoma on Jan. 30 in the PMAC, to make a run at postseason play.
Tough, but not impossible.
But, what has doomed LSU at the beginning of the season has yet to be fixed through two months of regular-season basketball.
In all of the five losses, offensive chemistry and defensive efficiency went awry, along with the “little things” Hornsby said.
“Everybody really is playing hard, but it’s the little things,” Hornsby said. “The little plays. A few seconds where we let off. Then, teams are able to take advantage of us.
“That is what makes things as frustrating as possible.”
The Tigers lacked balanced shooting as poor shot attempts were continuously taken.
Hornsby said LSU has yet to let go of rushed three-point attempts, highlighted by LSU’s 2-for-14 clip from beyond the arc against Wake Forest.
In LSU’s five losses this season, it shot 28 percent from three (35-of-123) — a discouraging number for the Tigers given the amount of capable three-point shooters on their roster.
On defense, Tigers remain out of position too many times, falling a step behind their opponent on the floor and in rebounding.
At the beginning of the season, Jones said rebounding would be a key factor if LSU were to have success this season. As of its most recent game, LSU was out-rebounded by seven total rebounds and nine on the offensive glass against Wake Forest (14-5).
LSU had to regroup as a team, as it did on Thursday morning.
The Tigers gathered coaches and players in a meeting to discuss the season thus far, assuring the team’s goals for the season were aligned.
“It was the best meeting I’ve ever been in at LSU,” Hornsby said.
“We had to make sure everyone is on the same page,” Jones said. “Make sure we’re all aiming toward the same goals.”
Despite LSU’s tumultuous start, Simmons, who leads the team in points and the nation in rebounding, remains in contention for Player of the Year. But that may not last if the Tigers continue to lose meaningful games heading into the latter half of their season.
“We’ve got 18 tough conference games ahead of us and a very good Oklahoma team left on our schedule here at home,” Jones said. “We’ve got to make sure we’re ready for each of those.”