College football is here in full swing and the National Football League is finally under way, but neither holds a candle to the best competition fall has to offer – Major League Baseball pennant races.
As October draws near, division champions are crowned one by one as their competition is mathematically eliminated from contention. Some division races will end in the coming days, but many will go down to the wire.
If this regular season finishes anything like last season, the tail end of September and the first few days of October will provide spectacular drama, unparalleled by that of any sport in the world.
Last season, both playoff wild- card spots weren’t decided until the final day of the regular season. The St. Louis Cardinals advanced to the playoffs by beating the Houston Astros and because the Atlanta Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in 13 innings. Tampa Bay Rays’ outfielder Ben Zobrist extended his team’s season with a 12th inning, walk-off home run against the New York Yankees, literally moments after the Boston Red Sox opened the door with a loss their season finale.
This season there’s one more playoff spot up for grabs – an additional wild-card spot, pitting each league’s two wild-card winners against each other for a one-game playoff.
This season’s AL Pennant races are a mess. As of Wednesday, the Baltimore Orioles and the Yankees are tied for first in the AL East, with the Rays lurking two games back.
The Orioles recently caught the injury bug and will be without a handful of key contributors, but after five games against the Oakland Athletics and the Rays, Baltimore has 13 games against the bottom feeders of their respective divisions before a season-ending three-game series against the Rays.
If the Orioles can win two of three through the end of September, I see them winning their first division title since 1997. Subsequently, I think we’ll see three teams from the same division represented in the playoffs with the Yankees and Rays taking both wild-card spots.
The AL Central picture is a little clearer, with the Detroit Tigers two games back of the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers are in the middle of a four-game series with the White Sox and are 11 of 15 on the season against their division rival.
If the Tigers take the next two games, they’ll be tied atop the Central, and the rest of their schedule bodes well for its second straight AL Central Championship.
In the AL West, the Texas Rangers have a three game lead on the upstart Athletics, with the Los Angeles Angels lurking 7.5 games back.
The National League division races are mostly locked up, but there’s always a chance for some late-season theatrics.
I’d love to see the Athletics make a run and pull the rug out from under the defending AL Champion Rangers, but I think the Rangers will take care of business and punch their ticket to the playoffs for the third straight season.
The Cincinnati Reds are 10.5 games ahead of the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals, the Washington Nationals are six games up on the Braves in the Central and the Los Angeles Dodgers trail the San Francisco Giants by six games in the West.
While the coast seems clear for the division leaders, three weeks and 20 games is more than enough time for the improbable to become reality.
The highest potential for drama is in the West, where the rejuvenated and deep-pocketed Dodgers should make a run on the Giants. The Giants have the favorable schedule over the next two weeks before a season-ending three-game series against the Dodgers, which could end up deciding who wins the West.
For the second straight year, Atlanta and St. Louis hold the top spot in the NL wild-card standings, but with an additional playoff spot this season both figure to be playing well into October. Should either team falter through the next three weeks, the Dodgers are the likeliest benefactor, but a number of teams still hold an outside chance of playing their ways into the one-game wild-card playoff.
As of Wednesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 2.5 back in the wild card, followed by the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers who are tied four games back.
However it all plays out over the next three weeks, one thing is for certain – it will all be fantastically entertaining.
