A black-and-white silent film, an ode to evolution and a flashback to 1920s Paris populate this year’s Academy Award nominations, announced Tuesday.
The offerings provide a varied bunch, with a crop of surprises threatening to overtake the predicted winners. Will they succeed come Oscar night? Of course not, but it’s fun to speculate on the possibilities nonetheless.
BEST PICTURE
The Academy’s Board of Governors can’t seem to solidify what it wants the Best Picture category to look like. The race was inflated to an overstuffed 10 nominees in the past two years, and now we’re left with what may actually be a prudent move on the Academy’s part — an open-ended ballot system in which the number of Best Picture nominees is determined by how many films received a certain percentage of first-place votes.
What did the new system get us? Nine nominations instead of 10. At least it’s a start.
Golden Globe favorites “The Artist” and “The Descendants” sit alongside award magnet “The Help” in what appears to be a three-way race for the top prize.
While nothing else seems to stand a fair chance against these powerhouses (although seeing Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” steal the prize would warm my heart), it’s interesting to see “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life” creep into the finalists’ pool. With mixed reviews, both were snubbed by the Globes and the Screen Actors Guild, making them contentious entries, considering the Academy’s new voting system.
Rounding out the list is a triad of films that stand almost no chance of being crowned: “Hugo,” “Moneyball” and “War Horse.” 
My prediction: “The Artist”
BEST ACTOR
Out of nowhere comes Gary Oldman for the little-seen “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” and Demián Bichir for the even-less-seen “A Better Life,” displacing once-favored “J. Edgar” star Leonardo DiCaprio and a nudity-prone Michael Fassbender for the lascivious film “Shame.”
Joining Oldman and Bichir, George Clooney (“The Descendants”), Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”) and Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”) comprise another trifecta of frontrunners.
All three gentlemen have collected a bevy of precursor awards, so the verdict will depend on what mood the Academy feels like embracing this season. If voters are going for glam, expect Pitt to strut across the stage for his first win. If they’re looking to honor the resident legend of the category, then Clooney’s unanimously praised turn as a father who learns his dying wife was unfaithful may catapult him to the forefront. But if voters favor originality and a touch of avant-garde — and they probably do — then it’s Dujardin’s race to lose.
My prediction: Jean Dujardin.
BEST ACTRESS
No matter which leading ladies made the shortlist in this category, snubs were sure to abound.
Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”), Viola Davis (“The Help”), Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”) and Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”) have been guaranteed nominations since awards season began, while the fifth slot provided a dead-heat battle that seemed like anyone’s game.
It turned out to be Rooney Mara’s (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”), who topped Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”), Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”) and my personal favorite Elizabeth Olsen, from the superb “Martha Marcy May Marlene.”
Mara may have overtaken Swinton, Theron and Olsen for the nomination, but pundits can discount her when placing their bets. Her incipient celebrity status will inhibit her from soaring to the Oscar stage.
Also cast aside Close. Despite earning raves that “Nobbs” may be the best performance of her 29-year film career, the actress has been largely overshadowed by Davis, Streep and Williams, all of whom have dominated the leading-actress races.
Despite collecting the Golden Globe a few weeks ago, Williams, too, will be dwarfed on Oscar night by Davis’ heartfelt performance as a 1960s maid and Streep’s portrayal of British prime minister Margaret Thatcher. 
My prediction: Viola Davis.
ADDITIONAL PREDICTIONS Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (“The Help”) Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”) Director: Michael Hazanavicius (“The Artist”) Adapted Screenplay: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin (“Moneyball”) Original Screenplay: Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”) Original Score: Ludovic Bource (“The Artist”)
 
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Contact Matthew Jacobs at [email protected]