NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Job growth in Louisiana will virtually stop in 2009 as the nation goes into recession but should pick up in 2010, according to an annual economic forecast released Wednesday.
Billions of dollars in construction involving industrial expansions, levee and highway projects, rebuilding from hurricanes and less exposure to the nation’s credit crisis will shield Louisiana somewhat, said Loren Scott, professor emeritus of economics at Louisiana State University and head of a group of economists in charge of the study.
But Scott cautioned the crisis that triggered Congress’ $700 billion financial industry bailout made the forecast tenuous.
“This is a new animal,” he said.
Events on Wall Street since August, when the report was originally completed, resulted in a major — and downward — forecast for Louisiana, Scott said.
Over the next two years, the state will add 29,700 jobs — only 1,300 in 2009. The original projection had the growth tally for 2009 and 2010 at 53,800, including 27,000 in 2009.
Historically, economic slumps in Louisiana have been buffeted because only 4.6 percent of jobs are tied to production of durable goods, compared with 6.4 percent nationwide, Scott said.
Another break for Louisiana is that many locally owned banks did not have heavy exposure to subprime mortgages, an initial cause of the financial collapse.
Next year’s projected downslide will hit the New Orleans and Shreveport-Bossier City regions hardest, the forecast said. Despite the influx of billions of dollars in rebuilding money, economists have warned the economic crisis could delay New Orleans’ recovery from Hurricane Katrina.
Facing major job losses at the NASA assembly center and a slowing tourism-convention industry, New Orleans will shed 3,000 jobs next year, but add 6,000 in 2010, according to the forecast.
The Shreveport-Bossier City region, where 8.2 percent of current jobs are in durable goods, will drop 2,100 jobs in 2009 before adding 2,500 in 2010, the report said. Particularly vulnerable is the General Motors Corp. assembly plant where employment has been slashed from 3,000 to fewer than 800 amid the automaker’s tumbling financial situation.
But gains are expected both years in the Baton Rouge, Houma, Lafayette and Lake Charles regions. Baton Rouge is forecast to add 9,200 job over the next two years, Lafayette is expected to add 6,000, Houma is on tap for 4,200 new jobs and Lake Charles should add 3,400, according to the forecast.
Alexandria and Monroe are expected to be flat in 2009, followed by 800 new jobs in Alexandria in 2009 and 400 in Monroe.
 
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