Kim Jong-Il would be a fool to stop now. Becoming a full-fledged member of the nuclear club is akin to being treated like a seven star player in Atlantic City on the world stage. The negotiating table is stocked with concessions, incentives and linguini cooked deadlines. Although North Korea’s missile program has so far amounted to a comedy of errors, it has not been taken lightly by world leaders. A secretive isolationist society is certainly not the kind of member the nuclear club is willing to admit. Political scientists and average people alike should be apprehensive about a non-rational player joining the nuclear game. Fears of nuclear obliteration aside, a golden opportunity for the United States to set the tone for the 21st century exists thanks to our favorite pot-bellied dictator. The State Department maintains that North Korea has the capability to produce nuclear weapons, if not the ability to deliver such a payload, and strike U.S. allies and interests in the region. North Korea has been happy to maintain a “neither confirm or deny” stance. According to a Foreign Affairs article “Did North Korea Cheat?” published January 2005 it is clear that enough plutonium exists to furnish such a program. However, as the article goes on to say, given the lack of existing industrial capacity it is highly suspect that such nuclear ambitions are realistic anytime soon. The biggest threat so far seems to be the prospect of North Korea acting as a plutonium vendor to shady buyers. Foreign policy concerning North Korea has been a series of engagements and disengagements. The Clinton administration decided to utilize a carrot-and-stick approach to ensure that North Korea complied with the nuclear non-proliferation act. Under the threat of sanctions and the promise to build light water reactors, the North Koreans agreed to take steps towards disarmament. But, the water reactors were never built and the North Koreans hinted that its nuclear weapons program was never fully halted. Since President Bush has taken office, little action has been taken. Speeches alluding to an “axis of evil” and multilateral six-party talks have recorded little diplomatic progress. The region is slowly becoming more hospitable toward the prospect of war. Japan’s parliament has debated changing key constitutional provisions allowing their military to project force rather than be confined to a strictly defensive role. South Koreans are on edge as chemically tipped artillery is pointed toward Seoul. Meanwhile, China is left to consider what to do about the black sheep of the communist family. A nuclear Korean peninsula certainly runs counter to China’s goal of establishing itself as the premier regional power. Yet the Chinese feel they have a moral and ideological obligation to support the North Korean regime. An imperfect but stable state that serves as a buffer is certainly in China’s interest. During the 1995-2000 famine that the International U.S. Census Bureau estimates claimed up to one million lives, China sent food and economic aid in a bid to prop the regime up. In return, North Korea has antagonized the international community that China is desperately trying to integrate itself into. North Korea’s odd combination of Stalinist rhetoric and religious overtones concerning its leader only serves to bristle against China’s overtures toward the West. Large increases in military spending by China have been made possible with the spread of capitalism and normalized relations with the United States. For China to realize its goal toward regional hegemony it will need to put its oddball relative in its place. Diplomatic inaction on the part of the United States would be disastrous. Bilateral talks between the United States and North Korea are a step in the wrong direction. Diplomatically, the United States needs to support China’s leadership in the region regarding this matter. For all of China’s faults, they are a manageable political entity. Since 9/11 they have joined with the United States in combating global terrorism by lending their support on the Security Council in the War on Terror. Given the unique position of friendship and a geographically shared border with North Korea, China is in the best position to mediate talks successfully. Bilateral talks between the United States and North Korea would snub China and run the risk of diplomats and ambassadors continuing stick-and-carrot diplomacy.
_____Contact Joesph Ruchalski at [email protected]