“Extraordinary” is how Charlie Cook described the 2008 presidential election to students Thursday.
“Iraq’s got to get a lot better, or Republicans’ chances [are] not good,” said Charlie Cook, founder of the The Cook Political Report.
Cook appeared at the presentation in the Journalism Building’s Holliday Forum with the three other Report staff members: Jennifer Duffy, Amy Walter and Meredith Harmon. The discussion, hosted by the Manship School’s Reilly Center, lasted about 90 minutes.
Report members said the 2008 congressional elections will be characterized by defensive campaigning by both parties.
Walter said everyone in the election is running as a “change candidate,” because no one wants to be associated with the current administration. Although this reduces opportunities for third-party candidates, Walter maintained that many voters “don’t fully trust [Democrats or Republicans].”
Duffy said Republicans must defend twice as many seats as the Democrats. Furthermore, a lower percentage of open Democratic seats are considered vulnerable by Report members.
“The numbers work against the Republicans this time,” Duffy said.
The only U.S. Senate seat held by a Democrat and considered vulnerable is Mary Landrieu’s seat. The concurrent governor’s election will help Landrieu’s chances, but Report members said Landrieu will face a tough race.
Cook said Democrats may gain a few seats next year, but they will probably remain a few shy of the number required for a workable majority.
Report members also addressed Louisiana’s upcoming gubernatorial election in 2008.
Cook said Blanco’s chances at a reelection are dismal. He said even if Blanco were to step aside for Breaux, the questions concerning his eligibility may prevent him from running.
“I just don’t think these are real great circumstances for Breaux,” Cook said.
Duffy said Republicans realize Breaux is a potential threat, and they would like to minimize any risk of him running.
Report members responded to audience members’ questions about the 2008 presidential election.
Cook described the conditions surrounding the rise of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., to presidential candidate as an “unprecedented phenomenon.” Cook said the challenge for Obama is that he has never been seriously tested.
“This is probably the closest thing to an immaculate conception we’ve ever seen in a United States Senate race,” Cook said.
Cook said he would give Sen. Hilary Clinton, D-N.Y., another presidential hopeful, the edge over Obama.
“She’s better than people think she is,” he said.
Report members also discussed the chances of Republican presidential candidates in 2008.
Cook explained how the Report looks at donation data from previous elections to help determine which candidates have the best chances. He said America isn’t likely to vote for a further-right candidate like former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.
Cook said he thinks Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has slightly better chances than Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass.
Also, Cook predicts Hispanic voters will be a crucial swing vote for Democrats in some contentious states.
The trend of Hispanics to lean away from Republicans is reflected across ethnic lines nationwide. Cook said results from aggregated polls by The Gallup Organization indicate a shift to the left. This nationwide shift may give Democrats an advantage in the next election.
According to the Gallup polls, only one state in the nation has shifted further right – Louisiana.
Report members said next year’s election will not be monumental for Democrats like the 2006 election.
—–Contact Daniel McBride at [email protected]