It’s been three years since its last occurrence, but National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists have confirmed it has returned — El Niño.El Niño is a tropical Pacific Ocean phenomenon, associated with warming of ocean temperatures across parts of the Pacific, said Mike Halpert, NOAA’s climate prediction center’s deputy director.Halpert said El Niño has differing effects across the country, but it typically causes increased rainfall and cooler than average temperatures along the Gulf Coast.”We typically see below average temperatures in the South because of more rainy and cloudy days,” he said. “However, it usually means fewer freezes, because although temperatures are lower than average, we’re not getting arctic air and below freezing level temperatures.” Halpert said El Niño does have benefits, which include suppressing hurricanes. The Gulf region typically sees fewer hurricanes during an El Niño year, he said.Barry Keim, University climatologist, said although El Niño lessens the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in a season, it doesn’t mean the Gulf Coast is safe.Hurricane Andrew pounded Louisiana in 1992 — an El Niño year.El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting for about a year, Halpert said. He said the last El Niño happened in late 2006, but it was weak and mostly insignificant.”The last real significant El Niño was during the ’97-’98 winter,” he said. “Since then, we’ve mostly seen a lot of weak El Niños.”The increased rainfall caused by El Niño can cause damage to several parts of the country, such as landslides in California and flooding throughout the Southeast, Halpert said.Keim said Louisiana sees more spring flooding during El Niño years — some of the worst floods on record occurred during El Niño.”It’s going to be an interesting winter and spring,” he said. “Especially since we’ve had such a dry summer.”A storm hasn’t been named in 2009, but Keim said it’s too early to call it a slow year.He said the first named storm of 2004 didn’t come until July 31, but the season had 15 named storms.”It’s way too early to write off the season,” he said. “The real heart of the season starts in early August.”Halpert said this year’s El Niño is weak right now, but it’s expected to strengthen during the winter months.”There’s really no way to tell exactly what will happen,” he said. “I’m fairly confident this will strengthen some through the winter, but after that, all bets are off.”—-Contact Steven Powell at [email protected]
NOAA says El Niño has returned, could affect storm season
July 26, 2009