E. J. Ourso College of Business professor Loren Scott and Greg Upton Jr., assistant professor at the LSU Center for Energy Studies, unveiled the 2020-2021 Louisiana Economic Outlook on Tuesday at the Greater Baton Rouge Business Report’s annual Top 100 Luncheon.
The 38th edition of the LEO shows job growth increasing over the next two years after a slow period in 2018-2019. Louisiana has suffered slow growth recently because of weak activity in the Gulf of Mexico and an industrial construction “lull.”
“[Finishing some projects and starting up new ones will give] a real boost to the Lake Charles, New Orleans and Baton Rouge economies,” Scott said.
The state is expected to add 53,800 jobs over 2020-2021, surpassing the 2 million job mark for the first time in its history.
Two very important assumptions are behind this forecast. First, the tariff issue with China is expected to be resolved before the 2020 national elections, which will give the national economy an extra boost. Also, 10 more new rigs are expected to begin operations in the Gulf of Mexico by 2021.
The additional rigs in the Gulf of Mexico will bring the Houma Metropolitan Statistical Area, or MSA, out of a period of stagnation, and will allow an increase to the Lafayette MSA. Key non-oil-related companies in Lafayette are also doing well and will generate 7,200 new jobs for that MSA over 2020-21.
An end to the lull in industrial construction will bring new jobs to the New Orleans MSA, which will especially benefit regions on the eastern and western edges. Scott estimates a projected 19,500 new jobs for the largest MSA in the state.
Lake Charles will also benefit from renewed industrial construction activity with the construction of at least two LNG export terminals beginning. About 6,800 new jobs are forecast for Lake Charles in 2020-2021, making it the fastest-growing MSA in the state.
A third region benefiting from the end of the lull will be the Baton Rouge MSA, with an estimate of 11,700 additional jobs over the next two years.
The Shreveport MSA will pick up 600 jobs due to expansions of the Port of Caddo-Bossier and the National Cyber Research Park. Alexandria’s major employers are stable but will need a new tenant at the old IP site and much more drilling activity in the Austin Chalk.
