Five games remain on the football schedule for coach Tom O’Brien and co., but the road ahead for this team looks to be a bumpy one.
A tough matchup with the Seminoles this weekend looked to be one of the best ACC games at the beginning of the year. But with both teams getting off to disappointing 4-3 starts overall, a win this weekend for either team would put them one step closer to bowl eligibility.
With the Wolfpack needing to win three of its last five games — because facing two FCS opponents means a 6-win season does not earn bowl eligibility — we broke down the reasons why we could win or lose each of the remaining games.
Florida State (4-3, 2-2 ACC)
Why we’ll win:
The Seminoles have shown in the last two games that they can hang with anyone on the defensive side of the ball, but against Clemson and Wake Forest the defense imploded.
The Noles gave up over 400 yards overall, including 300-plus through the air, and 35 points in both games. This sets up well for a team headed by redshirt junior quarterback Mike Glennon, who has passed for 16 touchdowns and threw for three touchdowns against Virginia this past Saturday without his two leading receivers.
If both senior wide receiver T.J. Graham and junior wide receiver Tobais Palmer play on Saturday, the Pack could air it out and rely mostly on the passing game to ensure a victory in Tallahassee to put Noles coach Jimbo Fisher’s record at 0-2 against State.
Why we’ll lose:
As I mentioned, the defense has been improved over the last two weeks, after allowing only 16 points against two straight opponents, and they didn’t earn a top-10 preseason ranking for nothing. This team has talent on both sides of the ball that didn’t exactly shine through against three straight opponents with a combined one loss between the three of them.
The word of the last two weeks for Florida State has been — balance. Both sides of the ball have improved and the team has even found a resurgence of its rushing attack behind Devonta Freeman and Jermaine Thomas.
With a quarterback in E.J. Manuel finding success in the passing game with several different receivers, including Rodney Smith and Kenny Shaw, the Noles have proven that the offense should be the headline story with consecutive performances of 46 points against two conference opponents.
North Carolina (5-3, 1-3 ACC)
Why we’ll win:
If you weren’t already aware: N.C. State has defeated the Tar Heels in four consecutive contests. But with the Heels jumping out to a 5-1 start and the Pack stumbling to a 3-3 start, it looked like this would be the year that all changed.
But the last two weeks have told a different story as the Heels fell to both Miami at home and Clemson on the road, and the only facet that seems to be working is the passing game and quarterback Bryn Renner.
With the defense holding Virginia to just 125 yards through the air and sophomore defensive back David Amerson turning into a ball hog with eight interceptions, tied for a school record and leading the nation, Renner’s options will be limited when dropping back to pass the ball.
Why we’ll lose:
I honestly don’t even want to talk about this subject, but it has to be done for this article. O’Brien has dominated UNC since his arrival and won four straight contests, but those wins were against Butch Davis.
And this team seems to have something to prove.
The defensive line that Davis brought in has serious potential at the NFL level and has led coach Everett Withers and the Heels teams to a 5-3 start. The line, led by Quinton Coples, has not been emasculated in the last two weeks like the rest of the team has.
Coples earned 2.5 tackles for loss against Miami and one against Clemson. With an offensive line that has done a fairly poor job of protecting Glennon in the past, this might not bode well for the Pack.
Boston College (1-6, 0-4 ACC)
Why we’ll win:
To be honest: this game might be one of the only near-guaranteed wins on the remaining 5-game schedule for the Pack.
The Eagles have not defeated a credible opponent this year and has lost to both Northwestern and Central Florida, two teams who have combined for a 5-9 record, in out of conference games.
With an offfense that is relying mostly on sophomore quarterback Chase Rettig, who has thrown for seven touchdowns and six interceptions this season, a loss against Boston College would be a dagger to the heart of State fans and possibly an end to any bowl hopes.
If Glennon, Graham and the rest of the Pack’s offense can get off to a strong start against a somewhat formidable defense in Boston, this team should be on its way to an easy win up north.
Why we’ll lose:
In O’Brien’s past four years with State, the Pack has beaten BC only once. While that win was last year, it was in Carter-Finley Stadium and not in Alumni Stadium.
Though the Eagles have not had a great showing since a win over FCS opponent UMass, they have played the top two teams in the conference, Clemson and Virginia Tech, and might be more prepared for a team with a weaker defense like State’s.
Boston College will also be coming off of a long week after a Thursday night game against Florida State, so the rest might prove useful for the Eagles.
No. 5 Clemson (8-0, 5-0 ACC)
Why we’ll win:
The Tigers have been rolling this year — all the way to an undefeated record and being looked at as a National Title contender.
But if this season has proven anything, it’s that the defense tries to run a bend-but-don’t-break scheme. It gives up a ton of yards and points, but the offense has proven better than the other team week in and week out.
If State plans to win this game, it will need two things: a perfect performance from the offense, and shut down defense in the passing game.
Running back Andre Ellington has proven that he can run the ball, but quarterback Tajh Boyd has thrown for 24 touchdowns, connecting with Sammy Watkins on nine of those. If the corners and safeties, led by Amerson and junior safety Brandan Bishop, can find a way to pick off Boyd, the Pack might be bowl eligible by mid-November.
Why we’ll lose:
Let’s face it: Clemson will very likely be 10-0 coming into Raleigh on Nov. 19, and will have much more than just an ACC Championship in mind.
This team can get it done on both sides of the ball and has put up over 30 points in all but one game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.
Boyd has Heisman potential and Watkins might very likely be Freshman of the Year at the end of the season. Paired with a running back in Ellington, this team has dreams of a National Championship and a loss against the Pack might simply be because they are looking ahead to a showdown with South Carolina at the end of the season.
Maryland (2-5, 1-3 ACC)
Why we’ll win:
The Terrapins got off to a strong start with a win over Miami to start the season, but that has been the only win over an FBS opponent for Maryland thus far.
While they made headlines with flashy jerseys, the offense has failed to score 20 points in three contests this year and ranks 94th in the nation with 31.4 points against.
If State can avoid the end of the season slump that it tends to fall into against the Terps, this showdown might end up meaning a bowl bid for the Pack.
Why we’ll lose:
As far as ACC opponents go for the Terrapins, the tough part is over. Maryland faces off with Boston College, Virginia and Wake Forest in conference before traveling to Carter-Finley Stadium.
If the Terps can garner some confidence from wins over the teams in the doldrums of the ACC, and more importantly figure out which quarterback it wants to start on a week-to-week basis, they might be competing for bowl eligibility and try to give the Pack the business again this season.
