The 2015 LSU football season started with promise. The Tigers sprinted off to a 7-0 start, before running into a three-pronged buzzsaw — Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss — which sent the season spiraling out of control.
After the three-game losing streak, coach Les Miles was on his final leg, and it looked like he was all but fired. He wasn’t. The team bounced back with a win against Texas A&M and carried him — literally — into the 2016 season. Now the squad is being portrayed as a national title contender.
And I don’t understand why.
ESPN’s football power index lists LSU as the No. 2 team in the country. The FPI gives the Tigers the best chance to win the Southeastern Conference with 31.4 percent. Meanwhile, defending SEC and National Champions Alabama have a meager 12.6 percent chance.
Many college football experts such as Phil Steele and Tim Brando have said they believe LSU will make the College Football Playoff.
I’m sitting here scratching my head.
LSU had one of the worst passing offenses in the country. They were ranked No. 108 of 128 FBS teams in yards per game, and it starts with the man under center.
Quarterback Brandon Harris wrapped up his sophomore campaign, his first full season as a starter, last season. And it wasn’t anything spectacular.
Harris completed 149-of-277 pass attempts, 53.8 percent, for 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. His completion percentage was 11th of the 13 SEC quarterbacks, which started a majority of their team’s seasons, Auburn being excluded as they lacked a consistent starter.
All of these stats point to this unit being nothing spectacular, except for one bright spot — now-junior running back Leonard Fournette.
Fournette was, without question, the Tigers’ best player a season ago and is one of the Heisman Trophy favorites heading into 2016. This is one of the key issues with the team.
Your best player is a running back in an offense without a viable passing threat. Unless Harris improves, teams will follow the blueprint Alabama used when they held Fournette to 31 rushing yards.
Miles has proved to be somewhat stubborn with play calling in the past. After the debacle where he nearly was fired, he changed some offensive scheme heading into the team’s bowl game. But I don’t think that will last.
Miles has a play style and he sticks with it. As the saying goes, a Tiger can’t change his stripes, and Miles’ offenses will never be an air-it-out type of passing attack.
Last year’s stretch of losses proved Fournette cannot carry the team on his own.
But offense wasn’t the sole issue.
The defense ranked 25th in yards allowed, but in its three-loss streak, LSU allowed 435 yards per contest. They were No. 41 in points allowed per game in Division I and were 10th in the SEC.
Despite the lack of production, the Tigers’ schedule could be their undoing. In addition to the tough SEC West slate, LSU has non-conference contests against Wisconsin, Jacksonville State, Southern Mississippi and South Alabama.
I say all of this and haven’t even addressed the elephant in the room – Alabama.
The Tigers haven’t defeated their conference rival since 2011 and lost the last seven of the last nine games against the Crimson Tide, including five straight.
Alabama coach Nick Saban and company always reload and have been the standard in college football. Until LSU can top Alabama, I have no reason to think they’ll win it all this year.
Could I be wrong? Of course, it happens occasionally. But I’m quite confident on this one, so get ready Tiger fans.
Unless Harris improves, the defense steps up and the team can get over the hurdle represented by Alabama, LSU will not compete for a SEC title.
And they most certainly will not contend for a championship.