The days of slim pickings for job opportunities and an uncertain economy are beginning to fade, according to a new report showing economic growth in Louisiana.
Economics professors Loren Scott and James Richardson and Southeastern management professor A.M.M. Jamal collaborated to produce the 2004 – 2005 Louisiana Economic Outlook. This year’s report anticipates a job growth in many areas of the state’s economy.
Scott said he and his colleagues used employment data from the Louisiana Department of Labor and built an economic and mathematical model to come up with the figures.
“Louisiana has had a recession for three years, and we’ve lost 23,000 jobs in that time,” Scott said. “The good news is we’re forecasting to pick up about 42,000 jobs.”
He said the bad news is that the growth rate is only 1.1 percent per year.
“We’re not going to go as fast as we used to, and that’s because the chemical industry is going in the tank,” Scott said.
He said chemical firms in Louisiana are suffering from the high cost of natural gas used in production and manufacturing. Natural gas is a lot cheaper in other countries, which allows foreign firms to be more successful than those in the United States, Scott said.
Scott said engineering job opportunities will not be lucrative in the state next year. On the other hand, he said health care jobs will be very promising in the near future, as the baby boomer population ages and spends more on health care services.
“The medical field is going to be the hot spot in this state,” Scott said. “There’s also going to be more jobs for attorneys and CPAs.”
He said students anticipating graduation in coming years should look forward to more job choices and higher wages.
“What we’re arguing [in the report] is right now the job market is very loose,” Scott said. “But in about 2005 when juniors and sophomores are graduating, the economy should be tight, and it’s going to be easy to find a job.”
He said the positive outlook is true for the whole country but especially Louisiana. He said students pursuing jobs within the state should also consider location because some areas will be more prosperous than others.
“If someone were to live in Lafayette, Houma or Shreveport, the job opportunities will be very good,” he said. “But anyone looking at Baton Rouge or Lake Charles is going to have a difficult time because that’s where most of the chemical plants are located.”
Some students at the University have mixed thoughts about how the outlook will affect their decisions to stay in Louisiana.
Adam Stumpf, an accounting freshman, said he likes living here and would stay if the state offered more opportunities.
“The only reason I’d want to leave here is because of the money,” Stumpf said.
Kirk Robertson, an ISDS sophomore, said he also would stay because he thinks Baton Rouge, especially downtown, will be a promising place for business in the next 10 years.
“If I want to start some sort of business, I would want to be a part of that new economy,” Robertson said. “I would like to stay here because the cost of living is still cheap, too.”
Anyana Polete, an engineering senior, said she plans on leaving regardless of the economy because she wants to travel, but it is always an option to come back.
The report is an annual publication by the Division of Economic Development and Forecasting at the University’s Ourso College of Business Administration.
The report shows a gradual yet significant increase in employment growth rate. In 2003, the state’s growth rate was -0.1 percent, but for 2004 and 2005 the report predicts a 1.1 percent increase. This increase in jobs will cater to a steady growth of population at 0.3 percent increase for the next two years, the report said.