With the exception of Stanford nearly doing the unthinkable toUSC, last week’s games left much to be desired. The firstweekend in October more than makes up for it though, with many Top15 teams going at it.
Last week: 8-2 straight up, 3-7 vs. spread. Season: 19-6straight up, 10-15 vs. spread
No. 13 LSU (+3) at No. 3 Georgia, 2:30 p.m., CBS — Theseteams are evenly matched in many areas, which means the game shouldbe close until the end. David Greene is UGA’s play-maker, buthe has not been impressive this year (only 583 passing yards inthree games), and the Bulldogs looked weak in lackluster winsagainst Marshall and a comeback versus South Carolina. The Tigersmeanwhile, seemed to have improved from every game, and they areplaying with a passion not seen since late last year. Georgia hasAll-American linebacker Odell Thurman coming back, and he’llcounted on to neutralize LSU’s running game. LSU has shutdown the run like no one’s business this year, and theBulldogs must be balanced if they want to put double digits on theboard. If the Tigers pressure Greene and limit his big plays, itwill keep the Tigers’ offense in good shape. But it muststill play with the poise and rhythm it showed last week against avery bad team. Bottom line, if LSU’s quarterbacks can lead apair of touchdown drives, the defense will take care of the rest.In a tight game, it may be wise to go with a home team that has amore reliable kicking game, but this one will be won withheart.
Prediction: LSU 17, Georgia 16
No. 9 Auburn (+2.5) at No. 8 Tennessee, 6:45 p.m., ESPN —The running game will be key for both teams. Carnell Williams andRonnie Brown must gain the bulk of the yards for quarterback JasonCampbell and the passing offense, which hasn’t lookedproductive. UT’s Cedric Houston also must have a good game totake the heat off freshman quarterback Erik Ainge, who’sthrown eight touchdowns and only one interception.Tennessee’s offensive line is much better thanAuburn’s, so look for them to control the line of scrimmagemore often and eventually pound out more points.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Auburn 19
No. 7 West Virginia (+3) at Virginia Tech, 11 a.m., ESPN —This has all the makings of a classic upset game. Virginia Tech haslooked good in its three wins (and lone loss to top-ranked USC) andWest Virginia has been the Cinderella story all year. Star runningback Kay-Jay Harris may not be 100 percent for this one, whichmeans the Hokies defense can key in on West Virginia quarterbackRasheed Marshall. Bryan Randall will need to capitalize on anymistakes the Mountaineers make and turn them into points. As goodas the Hokies are starting to look, the West Virginia bubble is notready to burst just yet.
Prediction: West Virginia 21, Virginia Tech 14
No. 15 Purdue (-3) at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m., NBC — How cananyone predict this game? Notre Dame is up and down so much, whoknows which team shows up against the Boilermakers. Purduequarterback Kyle Orton (74-of-16, 982 yards, 13 touchdowns) hasbeen phenomenal. His success should determine this game. If theIrish hold him under 200 yards passing, they win. But Orton andcrew have looked too dominant and people are starting to talk abouthow good Notre Dame is, which generally leads to them playingflat.
Prediction: Purdue 34, Notre Dame 31
Mississippi State (+10.5) at Vanderbilt, 6 p.m. — Ifyou’ve ever wondered why people will stop their cars on thehighway to look at a car accident or go to a circus freak show,this game should tell you why. MSU is giving Vandy a run for itsmoney as the most abysmal team in the Southeastern Conference rightnow. The Bulldogs lost to Division I-AA Maine, then were shut outby LSU. The Commodores lost close games to Navy and Ole Miss. Thescoring offense ranks 115th in the nation, so look for the MSUdefense to keep that trend going. Unfortunately, the MississippiState offense has its own train wreck going on, with startingquarterback Omar Conner out with a sprained knee. Anyway you lookat this, it’s going to be ugly, but at the same timecomical.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 10, Mississippi State 6
Top 25 teams will hold on to spots
September 30, 2004