LSU’s College Football Playoff hopes come down to its matchup with Alabama. Beating the Tide is a large hill to climb, but up to this point, other teams have done it.
That still doesn’t make it easy.
The Tigers were ranked No. 15 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings this season. Alabama was ranked at No. 11.
Both teams have two losses, with each having a respectable loss and a loss that either wasn’t expected or hasn’t aged well.
For Alabama, its loss to Vanderbilt was not expected, although Vanderbilt is now ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll. At the time of its win over Alabama, the Commodores were unranked.
For LSU, its loss to USC has aged anything but well, as the Trojans are near the bottom of the season with a 4-5 record.
LSU and Alabama’s seasons have unfolded in nearly parallel fashion leading up to their highly anticipated matchup, making it fitting that this year’s game carries such significant implications.
With a win, LSU could very well squeeze its way into the College Football Playoff if it wins out beyond Saturday. With a loss, the Tigers will be on the outside looking in.
Here’s what LSU will see from Alabama in its quest to keep hopes alive.
Jalen Milroe
LSU seemed to control its own destiny against Texas A&M in the first half. But one adjustment from Aggies’ head coach, Mike Elko, flipped the game upside down.
Marcel Reed replaced Conner Weigman at quarterback for the Aggies, and he ran for three touchdowns and 62 yards on nine carries.
LSU simply couldn’t stop the run threat, and Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe brings an even more intense run game to his skillset.
Milroe could arguably be one of the most, if not the most, complete quarterbacks in the SEC and perhaps the country. He’s thrown for 1,937 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air and ran for 380 yards and 12 touchdowns on a team-leading 102 carries.
The junior quarterback sees significantly more carries in opposing territory; he’s run for 120 yards on 18 carries between the opponent’s 39-20 yard lines and 107 yards on 29 carries in the red zone. In addition, all of his rushing touchdowns came in opposing territory.
Contrary to Reed against the Tigers, where he ran for small chunks of yards, Milroe has run for larger doses.
In five of Alabama’s eight games this season, Milroe has run for long carries of 20 yards or more. His run attack was most crushing in the Crimson Tide’s 41-34 win over Georgia, where he ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries.
As it has in many games before Saturday, Milroe’s run ability will be a swing factor against LSU.
Overall run attack
Alabama is ranked fifth in the SEC in rushing yards per game with 177.6.
The Crimson Tide, along with Milroe’s run threat, operates with a dual-running back system with Jam Miller and Justice Haynes.
Besides Milroe, Miller gets the majority of the carries. On 74 carries, he’s run for 450 yards and seven touchdowns. Haynes is not far behind with 350 yards and five touchdowns on 55 carries.
Both backs play with a similar style: powerful runners that can separate with their speed. Haynes, however, is used more in the pass game, catching 16 passes for 90 yards. Miller has added another 52 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown on six catches.
Texas A&M ran a similar, two-running back system with Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels. While the two combined for 174 rushing yards, the Aggies did not look to them through the air that much. Moss and Daniels combined for four catches for 47 yards.
With Alabama using its running backs more in the pass game, LSU’s defense will have to expect both a horizontal and vertical threat from the Crimson Tide.
Ryan Williams and Alabama’s deep receiver room
Alabama’s true freshman wide receiver, Ryan Williams, wasted no time rising up the ranks at the college level.
Williams, who is just 17 years old, leads Alabama with 702 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 35 catches. While he’s been a threat to begin with for the Crimson Tide, his athleticism sets him apart from perhaps any other receiver in the country.
His athleticism is credited to his awareness and body control. Multiple times against Georgia, Williams made catches with his back to the defender. He made spin moves and moves both outside and inside on the fly to extend plays and even score.
Williams is a talent that many expected would emerge, but maybe not this early. LSU’s secondary could have its hands full if it allows Williams any space at all to make catches.
But Alabama’s air attack doesn’t end there. Along with Williams, nine other receivers have caught four or more passes this season.
Germie Bernard is right behind Williams with 463 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 30 catches. He led Alabama with 82 yards on five catches in the Crimson Tide’s 34-0 win over Missouri on Oct. 26.
With how much of a threat Williams already is, partnering him with several targets for Milroe to target may throw LSU’s secondary off balance.
Solid all-around defense
In all phases of its defense, Alabama has held its own more times than not.
The Crimson Tide’s secondary has been most reliable for Alabama’s defense, as it is tied for second with 11 interceptions on the season.
Three different defensive backs have multiple interceptions, as Malachi Moore, Keon Sabb and Domani Jackson each have two interceptions. Five other defensive players have at least an interception as well.
With this being said, Nussmeier will have to be careful with the football, which he struggled to do in the second half against Texas A&M.
In addition, with LSU’s struggles in its run game this season, Alabama’s linebackers have helped limit opposing run attacks. The Crimson Tide allowed just 80 rushing yards against Georgia.
Que Robinson leads Alabama with four sacks, and Jihaad Campbell has an additional 2.5 sacks. Deontae Lawson, Justin Jefferson and L.T. Overton each have multiple sacks. Campbell and Lawson are tied for a team-leading 66 total tackles.
Coupled with the ability of the linebackers and secondary to come up with negative plays, they’ve also come up with eight forced fumbles on the season thus far. Moore has two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
Alabama may have the most versatile defense that LSU has faced up to this point, and in order to combat that, the Tigers will have to have both phases of the offense clicking, especially the run game.