March Madness is the largest playoff bracket in all of sports.
Three hundred and fifty-two Division I men’s basketball teams vie each year for the opportunity to play for a coveted title, and only around a fifth of them will get that chance. Simultaneously, millions will place their bets, with billions of dollars on the line. The stakes are high, which creates a perfect environment for intrigue and, well, madness.
So, where exactly does the NCAA Tournament bracket come from?
The first March Madness was unrecognizable from what we see today. It consisted of just eight teams in 1939 and was generally held in much lower regard than the now-maligned National Invitation Tournament. The teams were selected in an odd district system, frequently leading to highly ranked teams being skipped over for tournament appearances.
The tournament began to look the part in the early ’70s. Two significant rule changes were made: first, teams were banned from postseason tournaments if they declined the NCAA tournament invitation. Second, and most significantly, multiple teams were allowed from the same conference.
The tournament took its current core form in 1985, expanding to 64 teams and removing byes. Thirty-one of the teams automatically receive bids through their conference championships. Then, the top 37 teams who didn’t win their conference are selected through a somewhat complex voting process.
Each selection committee member identifies 24 teams they believe qualify for at-large bids, placing them into one column. They then place any teams they think should be considered for an at-large bid into a second column. Any team that gets all but three votes in the initial column is entered into the tournament. The second column is gradually whittled down through successive balloting and ranking until the bracket is filled.
Then comes the challenging part: the seeding. Seeding ensures that teams are roughly equally matched in competition, but several factors ultimately create the bracket.
Seeding begins with and primarily relies on creating an “S-curve” list, ranking each team based on factors like RPI, stats, and sometimes even injuries to key players, giving each team a “true seed.”
The teams are seeded within the four regions, and the committee does its best to ensure the top four in each region are roughly equivalent in strength. The seeding within each conference generally aligns with the S-curve list, with the top four teams usually being the No. 1 seed in their region, the following four being No. 2 and so on. The goal is that the sum of the true seeds, the seed totals, from the top four in each region average at 34, with a difference between the lowest and highest total of no more than five.
Another critical factor in seeding is geography. The committee tries to place the top-seeded teams as close to their regional site as possible, which plays a significant role in determining each team’s region.
Conference membership also shapes the bracket. Teams that met once prior may only meet in the second round, and each subsequent meeting means they can’t play for another level of the tournament.
Certain cultural restrictions can also play a role, as religious schools like BYU are only scheduled to play at sites designated for Thursday and Saturday games.
While 68 teams qualify for the tournament, only 64 can advance to the final bracket. This is where the First Four comes in.
The First Four is a mini-tournament where eight teams, the four lowest-seeded conference champions and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams, play four games to determine who will go dancing.
The bracket creation process usually attracts tremendous intrigue and a matching amount of criticism. Underseeded teams are disadvantaged, facing more difficult opponents earlier in the tournament and traveling farther. It also hurts teams at higher seeds, as they face overly strong teams in the first or second round, leading to early elimination.
Kentucky and Louisville were battling for seeding before the 2014 bracket dropped. Despite the Cardinals being ranked No. 5 nationally and the Wildcats losing only a few close games against tough opponents, Kentucky was given the No. 4 seed, and Louisville nabbed the No. 8 seed.
This forced the undefeated No. 1 seed, Wichita State, to play Kentucky in the third round. If we had more accurate seeding and less focus on RPI, each team’s chances of making deeper tournament runs would’ve increased.
Selecting teams for the March Madness bracket is always a spectacle. It provides a rare structure and consistency in one of the most chaotic endeavors in American sports.
