No. 8 LSU returns to Alex Box Stadium this weekend with a chance to reset after its first SEC series loss of the season. The Tigers dropped two of three at Texas and now face a Mississippi State team that’s struggling to stay afloat in conference play.
The Bulldogs arrive in Baton Rouge at 15-9 overall but just 1-5 in the SEC, reeling after series losses to Georgia and Texas A&M. LSU, now 22-3, has a chance to reestablish itself as a dominant force in the SEC.
LSU and Mississippi State have faced off more than 400 times. The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 219-194, but the Tigers have been steadily closing that gap in recent years. Last year’s series ended with a lopsided 15-5 Mississippi State win, but LSU used the momentum of a key victory earlier in the weekend as a starting point for their late season run.
This year’s matchup is lopsided on paper, but rivalries don’t always follow logic – especially in the SEC.
Mississippi State is trying to get back on track under head coach Chris Lemonis. Their offense is producing, but their pitching outside of ace Pico Kohn has been hit or miss.
Mississippi State’s staff has elite strikeout numbers, 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings, but it’s also allowed 38 home runs this season – not ideal when facing a star studded LSU team.
Kohn is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA, 53 strikeouts and a .148 opponent batting average allowed. If there’s a starter that will cause LSU problems, it will be Friday.
Karson Ligon sits at an unimpressive 4.76 ERA and has lost three of his five starts. Ben Davis is 1-1 as a starter and has an ERA of 3.98. He has allowed nine earned runs in 20.1 innings pitched.
Bullpen arms like Ryan McPherson, Evan Siary, Stone Simmons, Luke Dotson and Kevin Mannell can be reliable at times but do not boast the numbers to threaten sequential hitless innings.
Noah Sullivan leads the bats for Mississippi State, batting .410 with four home runs, eight doubles, and a .667 slugging percentage. His on-base percentage is over .500.
Ace Reese is also a name to watch. He bats .304 with eight home runs and 34 RBI.
As a team, Mississippi State is hitting .315 with 46 home runs in 24 games.
The Tigers enter the weekend leading the SEC in slugging percentage at .604, on-base percentage at .460, and runs scored with 244. Even in the series loss to Texas, they showed flashes of why they’re still a top 10 team.
The Tiger lineup benefits significantly from having a “top of the order” at one through nine, maybe even past that. Even outside of total consistency out of Derek Curiel, Daniel Dickinson and Jared Jones, names like Steven Milam and Ethan Frey are dangerous every at bat.
Dominant as the offense has been, perhaps the defining trait of this LSU team has been the defensive performance. The chemistry between Milam and Dickinson has been proven time and time again and it seems Chris Stanfield makes a layout grab every weekend.
What this weekend measures for the Tigers is the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. While there has been instability at times from starters. The two losses thus far can largely be placed on the relief staff.
Zac Cowan and Casan Evans have been rocks for the team in big moments. The two of them are personally responsible for protecting multiple wins this season. After those two, the security weakens.
William Schmidt, Conner Ware, Mavrick Rizy have all had strong outings but an equal share of instability. Other relievers like DJ Primeaux, Conner Benge and Jaden Noot have not yet attained the status of the likes of Evans and Cowan.
Then of course, there’s Gavin Guidry. The captain’s continually awaited return is proving more and more necessary every passing weekend.
The bullpen is where growth can be shown or where games can be lost. This weekend will indicate a lot for how the unit projects season long.
The starter who has the most to gain this weekend is Chase Shores. Last Sunday he allowed seven hits, five runs and three walks, recording only three strikeouts in 21 batters faced. Shores is a high-upside pitcher but that ascent needs to begin soon.
For LSU it’s about getting back to business. After a 17-game win streak, the Texas series was a wake-up call. Dropping games to a struggling Mississippi State squad at home would raise real questions heading deeper into SEC play.
For Mississippi State this might be their last shot to right the ship before the season starts to slip away. A series win in Baton Rouge would inject new life into what has been so far, a faltering SEC campaign.
