Democrats who hold seats in traditionally red states are already sweating the 2014 election season, and Louisiana is no exception.
Not coincidentally, the most recent “push poll” declared Gov. Bobby Jindal’s approval rating had “plunged more than 20 points” and followed Sen. Mary Landrieu who holds an apparent eight point “likeability” lead, The Times-Picayune reported Monday.
Besides the comparison of a governor to a U.S. senator approval poll along with other hypothetical matchups, the Public Policy Polling survey is designed to make Landrieu appear more stable for re-election in 2014 than she actually is.
PPP’s survey may come as an encouragement to their democratic base — until they look at how the Louisiana actually voted last November.
The 2012 voting spread was 58-41. This doesn’t bode well for Landrieu or any other “D” in this red state.
However, the translation from senatorial to presidential elective support isn’t perfect, but is a good predictor of how the 2014 elections are likely to fall. Herein lies the flaw with PPP’s survey and media interpretation.
They oversample the left.
Landrieu holds a seat in the Senate without representing the majority of Louisiana voters and their values.
Of course, Landrieu’s strong political acumen and powerful family name will benefit her as she attempts to defend her seat. But she is not nearly as favorable as the left will try to present her to be in the coming election, and they will probably use similar tactics seen in 2010.
Tactics are as follows: Stay away from National Democrat ideology, mobilize a few special interests and highlight the accomplishments that appear most favorable to the voter.
In 2014, there are 35 Senate elections, 14 defended by Republicans and 21 by Democrats.
“University of Virginia’s Center for Politics warns on Thursday in its latest breakdown of the 2014 Senate races that Senate Democrats should be on high alert in seven states in which they hold seats,” The Washington Times reported Thursday.
Those states include Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa and North Carolina.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat in West Virginia, secured his seat in a red state by openly criticizing President Obama early on in his campaign in order to secure independence from presidential unpopularity in red states.
Landrieu won’t be able to use this tactic due to her voting record.
Sen. Landrieu voted with Obama 95 percent of the time in 2011, 98 percent of the time in 2010 and 97 percent of the time in 2009.
This is the same president that promised that nothing in his proposals would “raise the deficit by a single time” more than 12 times.
For the rest of the Obama administration, 2014 could be a bad year.
Many conservatives are concerned over liberal success regarding the stimulus package, immigration, healthcare reform, recent immigration reform and military drawback in Afghanistan.
But only needing a net gain of six seats to take back the chamber, conservatives may see significant change in the right wing’s effectiveness of the Senate and the policy it supports in the future.
Benjamin Disraeli, the founder of the conservative party once said, “There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies and statistics.”
As always, filter the media and watch the news.
