The LSU men’s basketball team’s overtime loss to Kentucky may have been the final nail in the proverbial coffin for the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament aspirations.
The Tigers fell 77-76 on Saturday against the No. 18 Wildcats, and according to SB Nation Bracketology expert Chris Dobbertean, the loss will most likely leave LSU with plenty of free time in March.
“[LSU’s] RPI is now up to 69, which is kind of dodgy,” Dobbertean said. “The schedule doesn’t really break down all that favorably because, well, it’s the SEC at this point, and the league has a seven-way tie for fourth place at 7-7, including the Tigers. … I hope the people in Birmingham have a really good tie breaker for that.”
In the event of three or more teams finishing the season tied in conference standings, the SEC decides tournament seeding with the best winning percentage of games played among the tied teams. If no winner is found, the highest winning percentage of the tied teams against the No. 1 seed is used, subsequently progressing through all 12 tournament teams until the tie is broken. SEC commissioner Mike Slive will flip a coin if the first two tiebreakers don’t separate a victor.
If the Tigers had won Saturday, Dobbertean said he would’ve put them in his last four to make the tournament, playing in the opening round games in Dayton, Ohio.
Unfortunately for LSU, it couldn’t pull off the upset against Kentucky for the second time this season, despite controlling the lead throughout the majority of overtime.
“I thought for 45 minutes, our guys gave an excellent job of giving a great effort,” said LSU coach Johnny Jones during his postgame radio show on Saturday. “We talk about playing from tip to finish and we did that tonight.”
LSU juniors Johnny O’Bryant III and Anthony Hickey led the Tigers with a team-high 20 points. O’Bryant scored his seventh double-double of the season, after pulling down 12 rebounds, while Hickey grabbed another five boards.
Dobbertean described LSU’s chances of earning a bid this late in the season as “highly unlikely,” with the only quality win opportunity left being No. 2 Florida in Gainesville. The Gators haven’t lost at the O’Connel Center since March of 2012, while the Tigers are currently on a six-game road losing streak.
Dobbertean said conferences like the Big East that have several programs lumped together in the middle of the standings could help LSU, but believes the SEC will max out at three tournament bids with Florida and Kentucky already claiming two of them.
“I think three is going to be the absolute limit,” Dobbertean said. “I don’t think there’s going to be a fourth, and it may even take someone stealing the auto-bid to get the third at this point.”
Dobbertean said he has Missouri as his third SEC team, but after losing to Alabama over the weekend, Missouri could be falling into the bubble.
LSU showed signs of improvement against Kentucky — No. 11 in RPI — on Saturday, after losing several games to sub-100 RPI teams throughout the season. The Tigers lost at No. 127 Alabama, at No. 132 Texas A&M and at home against No. 178 Rhode Island.
The Tigers now return to Baton Rouge for a rematch against Texas A&M on Wednesday in the PMAC. The Aggies are the first of LSU’s four remaining regular season contests.